The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of UFA Season

During the opening days of Unrestricted Free Agency, NHL General Managers behave very much like 10 year-old kids at Wal-Mart with $100 that Grandma sent them for Christmas in their pockets ready to spend. Most head drooling right into the toy department or into the electronics departments looking for the new fads, toys and games. Fights break out over who gets the new video game system or the flashy ipod. In just a few minutes they are left crying and frustrated with virtually no more money and a shiny new gadget or two that they will almost assuredly regret buying just a few days after they couldn’t wait to get it home and out of the package.

The smart ones have a plan of action. They go to the clothing section or the school-supply area and patiently search through the racks looking for the bargains and the deals. They buy the things that will match what they already have in their closets and will work with what they have in their desks. These are the kids that you know will grow up to be successes in life. It may not be flashy but at the end of the day it’s these kids that will have something useful and long-term whereas the kids that blew their wad on the flashy stuff will see their toys lying broken-down on the sideline wishing they had saved some of that money for a few of the more useful items.

You’d think that GM’s would learn. At least the kids have the excuse of youth and inexperience to fall back on. NHL GM’s are well-paid professionals whom the fans and the franchises that they represent count on to make rational, well thought out purchases; not the indulgent flavor-of-the moments that we see GM’s throw big bucks at every off-season. The salary cap was supposed to curb the irresponsible GM’s spending but all it has done is seemingly condense all of the irrationality into a couple of days of frenzied madness.

My purpose in this post will be to look at some of the wiser UFA signings and some of the more reckless UFA signings. I will only look at the players that changed teams via free agency. There will be an obvious pattern that you, the reader, should be able to easily discern after just a few of the players I mention. Alright, here we go!

The Good

Saku Koivu – Anaheim

Koivu fills a need on the Anaheim team for a 2^nd line center to line up with countryman Teemu Selanne and the recently repatriated Joffrey Lupul. Anaheim lacked secondary scoring last year and the expected chemistry between Koivu and Selanne will go far to cure that this season. The one year commitment means that the Ducks will be free to enter next years market with money to spend. It also coincides with Selanne’s stated desire to retire after this season. We know that Selanne’s presence played a large role in convincing Koivu to come to Anaheim in the first place.

Koivu still has gas in the tank after recording 50 points in 65 games with a Montreal team that struggled offensively last season. Last season’s numbers would prorate out to about 63 points in a full season. For $3.25 million that kind of ROI is pretty solid.

Nick Boynton – Anaheim

I guess Anaheim had a good off-season, huh? Boynton is not flashy; he will not put up 50 points in a season nor will he be a “shut-down” defenseman. What he is though is a steady two-way defenseman who can play a physical game and chip in on the power play. He scored 21 points in 68 games with Florida last season after being included in the return from Phoenix for C Olli Jokinen. He was also a +7, for a team that did not qualify for the playoffs, placing 5^th on the squad.

Anaheim needed defensive depth after dealing Chris Pronger and losing Francois Beauchemin to UFA. Boynton will provide that on an affordable ($1.5 million), short-term (1 year) deal.

Andrew Alberts – Carolina

Alberts was coming off a career season with Philadelphia and parlayed that into a 2 year contract with Carolina. He recorded 13 points and was a +6 in 79 games with the Flyers. Alberts, Like Boynton, is not flashy and won’t be confused with Scott Niedermayer or Niklas Lidstrom. He is a solid defenseman that will provide good play as the 5^th or 6^th defenseman for a playoff caliber team.

Alberts annual cap hit is just $1.05 million for each of the next two seasons. I would much rather have Alberts at that price than Mike Komisarek at $4.5 million per for 5 years or Hal Gill at $2.25 million a year for two seasons. Alberts is also still young enough that it is possible that we may not have even seen his best hockey yet.

Craig Anderson – Colorado

Anderson is a good bet to supplant Petr Budaj as the starting net minder in Colorado this season. After bouncing around between Chicago and Florida, Anderson firmly established himself as a solid back-up last year with the Panthers. Anderson even stole some starts away from the more heralded Tomas Vokoun while finishing with a .924 Save % (SP) and a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.71.

Anderson has certainly earned a chance to be the starter and Colorado was a good landing spot for him. The Avalanche got mediocre to outright terrible goaltending from Budaj and the departed Andrew Raycroft last year. To obtain a guy likely to at least split the goaltending job for only $1.8 million per for two years was a good move for the Avs.

Scott Clemmensen – Florida

After losing Anderson to the Avs, The Panthers did well to replace him with Clemmensen. Clemmensen subbed for the injured Marty Brodeur and helped the Devils qualify for the post-season despite the loss of the future Hall-of-Famer. Clemmensen appeared in a career-high 40 games while recording a .917 SP and a GAA of 2.39.

The Panthers had to give Clemmensen 3 years but at a very affordable $1.2 million Florida shouldn’t experience a drop-off in production in net. Basically for the same total outlay of cash ($3.6 million) the Panthers will get an extra year of service from Clemmensen than what the Avalanche will get from Anderson.

Martin Biron – NY Islanders

This was a surprising signing as Isles GM Garth Snow had already signed a running mate for franchise Goalie Rick DiPietro when he added Dwayne Roloson via UFA. This move signifies that DiPietro will not start the season on the Isles active roster. It also ensures that the Islanders will have two capable goalies to hold down the fort until DiPietro is 100%.

Biron had been asking for around $5 million per at the onset of free agency so his price came way down as he settled for just $1.4 million for one year. Biron will get a chance to build up his market value again going into next off-season while giving the Islanders a chance any night he starts. Once DiPietro is healthy again look for a playoff contender to make a move for Biron to solidify its own goaltending situation. This will bring the rebuilding Isles more young assets for the future.

Jay McKee – Pittsburgh

McKee was a highly sought after free agent 3 seasons ago when the Blues signed him away from the Buffalo Sabres. Unfortunately for the shot-blocking dynamo, McKee wasn’t able to stay in the lineup as much as he or the Blues would have liked. He missed 88 games over the last three seasons and the Blues decided to bite the bullet and buyout the remaining 1 year on McKee’s deal.

After losing veteran defenders, Hal Gill and Stanley Cup Finals stand-out Rob Scuderi to UFA, the Penguins made a wise, low risk move by bringing in Jay McKee. McKee will add depth and experience to what had become a younger blue line. If McKee can stay healthy enough to dress in 70+ games this season then I should say that Pittsburgh got a steal.

Anyone who has been paying attention to this blog will notice that all of the UFA moves I liked are short-term deals and involve depth players rather than stand-outs. I firmly believe that teams need to draft, develop and then sign their own super-stars to long term deals instead of trying to acquire them through free agency. A team has a better chance of extending their own players to cap-friendly deals than they do of importing another team’s star players at cap-friendly prices. For most of the successful organizations in the NHL, it is the depth that separates them from their rivals. UFA should be used to supply that depth.

Now on to…….

The Bad

Rob Scuderi – LA Kings

I hate to pick on the Kings; I really think that they are an improved team. I’m still not sure they will make the playoffs in the tough Western Conference but they will definitely be competitive. Scuderi is a good player too; I just think that he played his best hockey when it most mattered for the Pens last season in the Cup Finals and that he won’t be as effective for a team like the Kings. A 4 year contract that averages $3.4 million is a heavy price to pay for steady defenseman. That’s the kind of money you give to a surefire top 4 guy that will play in all situations. Scuderi will not contribute offensively much and won’t play the point on the power play. He will probably play roughly 16 – 18 minutes a night on a regular shift and killing penalties.

Too often teams put too much value in players that have just come off a good playoff run; especially if that player’s team wins the Cup. I definitely think that is the case for the Kings and Rob Scuderi. The Kings will be paying for and expecting top 4 minutes and production from a 30 year-old defenseman that didn’t crack the Pens lineup regularly until 3 seasons ago. Seems a bit risky to me.

Marian Gaborik – NY Rangers

OK, here it is. I bet most of you were wondering if I would include Gaborik in this somewhere. I admit, I thought long and hard and perhaps it was my loyalty to the Rangers or what but I almost didn’t include Gaborik in this. I am not typically an optimist so it should have been a given that I put Gaborik on this list given that he received the largest annual salary of any other UFA this off-season and his history of injuries. Those factors definitely scream BIG RISK!!!

That is definitely true and it is why I ultimately put Gaborik on this list. There were other options on the market that didn’t come with the injury history that Gaborik does; Cammalleri, Gionta, Hossa, just to name a few. There were other options that cost less per season including Martin Havlat, Alex Tanguay (presumably he will cost less per season), Alexei Kovalev and all of the other players recently mentioned above. Well, Sather decided to take the cap money saved by moving Scott Gomez to Montreal and use it on one flashy player instead of maybe signing two or three solid players.

I understand that Gaborik is supposed to be past the health issues that affected him each of the last two seasons. I even believe he has a decent chance to play 70 games and put up 40 goals. I just think that Gaborik could’ve been had for less money per year and that it is foolish for Sather to have made that kind of commitment for one potentially outstanding player when maybe he could have used that cap money to improve at 2 or 3 positions. Does anyone really believe that another team would’ve offered more than $6 million per for Gaborik? Not saying I know for sure but……

Chris Neil – Ottawa

In yet another example of Sather’s brilliance (SARCASM people!!), he nearly netted the Rangers this declining stiff as well. Just a day after signing 37 year-old enforcer Donald Brashear to a 2 year deal and Gaborik to a 5 year deal, Sather had an offer of 4 years at more than $2 million annually to Neil. Fortunately for the Rangers and their fans, Ottawa ponied up a fourth year and Neil stayed. Four years ago, Neil was the prototype of what teams wanted from their enforcers in the new, obstruction cracked-down NHL; a tough player with decent enough skill to take a regular shift. Neil even recorded a career high of 33 points in 2005-2006 (16 goals, 17 assists). Unfortunately, Neil’s point per game (PPG) rate has fallen in each subsequent year from his high of .42 PPG in 2005-2006. Here, let’s take a look:

2005-2006 79 GP 33 Pts .42 PPG

2006-2007 82 GP 28 Pts .34 PPG

2007-2008 68 GP 20 Pts .29 PPG

2008-2009 60 GP 10 Pts .17 PPG

It’s bad business to give a 4 year deal to a 30 year-old tough guy with declining offensive skill; especially one who has missed 36 games in the last two seasons combined. Senator’s GM Bryan Murray caved to the pressures of possibly losing a loyal soldier by giving Neil this contract. Fortunately it was the Senators who will be stuck with this burden and not the Rangers.

And finally….

The Ugly

Martin Havlat – Minnesota

Faced with the likelihood of losing franchise star and original Wild player Marian Gaborik, new Wild GM Chuck Fletcher roped in a very similar player to fill the skates of Gaborik. Again, anticipating the inevitable question of why the signing of Gaborik was merely Bad while the Havlat signing was Ugly, I offer up a couple of points:

a) Gaborik’s health issues are supposed to be behind him; if you believe the surgeon who performed the hip procedure. As is, Gaborik has averaged 62.75 appearances in his 8 NHL seasons. If you take away the seasons in which Gaborik missed significant time due to the related hip/groin problems, Gaborik has skated in an average of 73 games per season over the other 6 seasons of his career. Havlat has appeared in only an average of 58.75 games in his 8 year career.

b) Gaborik has averaged .44 Goals Per Game (GPG) over the course of his career while playing in a system noted for being conservative and its focus on defensive responsibility with the Wild. He has also never averaged better than 20:00 of ice time per game in any of his 8 NHL seasons. Havlat has averaged .36 Goals Per Game while playing for more offensive teams with a lot of skill around him in Chicago and Ottawa. They have averaged close to the same amount of average ice time per game over their careers though Havlat does have one season in which he average over 21:30 per game. Ironically, that was his best statistical season in which he averaged .446 goals per game and about 1 point per game. The difference in GPG average equates to Gaborik scoring 6 goals more over the course of a full 82 game schedule.

Basically, the argument can be made that since Gaborik scores more goals per game and plays more games per year on average than Havlat, then Gaborik is worth more money annually. The other confounding part of the 6 year, $30 million contract is the term. Granted Havlat is only 28 but he likely won’t be producing as much in his age 33 and 34 seasons as he will in his prime years. Gaborik signed a 5 year deal that will take him through his 32^nd birthday. So it’s not a lot but those are the criteria that separate a BAD contract from an UGLY contract.

Mike Cammalleri – Montreal

Cammalleri is a pint-sized forward who is coming off a career year playing alongside Jarome Iginla in Calgary. He has averaged roughly a point-per-game in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Those were sandwiched around a miserable 2007-2008 season in LA in which he scored only 47 points in 63 games and even worse was a -16. Cammalleri has proven successful when surrounded by quality skill. At 27, he should still have plenty of life to fulfill the 5 year term on his deal.

What makes this signing ugly is the Average Annual Salary (AAS) of $6 million and the fact that Cammalleri will likely be playing with other small forwards with inconsistent offensive production. If Cammalleri doesn’t get help from his linemates up front it will severely impact his production. In addition to the acquisition of Cammalleri (5’9”, 185 pounds), the Canadiens also reeled in mighty-mite forward Brian Gionta (5’7”, 170 pounds) and traded for Scott Gomez (5’11”, 200 pounds). That comprises a very small #1 line especially in the more physical, Eastern Conference. The fact that Gionta’s and Gomez’s offensive numbers have tailed off dramatically in the last couple of seasons also gives reason to question the Cammalleri signing.

Brian Gionta – Montreal

Speaking of Gionta, after his break-out season of 2005-2006 in which he recorded 48 goals and 89 points, Gionta’s goal scoring numbers have fallen tremendously. The seasons following his 48 goal outburst, Gionts recorded just 25, 22 and 20 goals respectively. He has also only ever scored more than 60 points once in a season and that was in 2005-2006, though he did have exactly 60 last season.

Gionta is tiny by NHL standards and just hit his 30^th birthday. Guaranteeing a player on the wrong side of 30, 5 years at $5 million per season is certainly UGLY. The Canadiens were desperate to improve their offense after struggling mightily last season but adding Gionta and Cammalleri doesn’t look like the way to do it.

There you have it folks; my Good, Bad and Ugly UFA signings of 2009. Feel free to comment with your own selections but be prepared to validate your picks. If you disagree with some of mine please tell me why. Also, don’t forget to hit up the Rangers Mailbag by emailing me atgkmkiller@cox.net

Thanks for Reading,

Glen Miller