Monday, July 20, 2009

Rangers Offseason Progress Report

By Glen Miller

Alright, please forgive me for my lack of imagination on this particular blog topic. I spent the entire weekend up in L.A. watching my daughter in a softball tournament. Unfortunately I was unable to devote the usual time to hockey. I realize I did a series on HockeyBuzz.com similar to this that covered the entire eastern Conference. I had some interesting feedback, though not quite the volume I expected. Since this website focuses primarily on the Islanders and I am here to mostly focus on the Rangers, I thought I would make this a two-part piece; today the Rangers and tomorrow the Islanders.

First, remember these are only my OPINIONS. I don’t pretend to be anything other than what I am; a passionate fan of hockey and especially of the Rangers. I try to stay as objective as possible whenever I comment on the Rangers and the goings-on around the team. Feel free to disagree with me and feel free to voice your disagreement in the comments. However, let’s keep this clean and remember it is all in good fun.

For those of you familiar with my HockeyBuzz.com progress reports this one will be more comprehensive and in-depth. I will analyze every move based upon its own merits. Not only will I factor in how each move will impact the team this year but I will do so for the foreseeable future too. I will look at the trades, the free agent signings and the free agent defections and then do two things: first I will assign a letter grade to each move and second I will assign an impact rating for each move; the bigger the move, the more that it will count toward the Ranger’s final off-season progress report grade. Grades will be based on the typical A=4 pts, F=0pts scale. The Impact Rating will be on a scale of 1 – 5 and will be multiplied with the grade to get a final score. At the conclusion, I will divide the total score by the average Impact Rating to determine the average and thus the final grade.

Rangers trade C Scott Gomez, D Michael Busto and F Tom Pyatt to Montreal for F Chris Higgins, D Ryan McDonaugh, D Pavel Valentenko, and D Doug Janik.

Not only were the Rangers able to find a taker for the $7.35+ million cap hit over each of the next 5 seasons that remained on the Scott Gomez contract and thus create much needed cap space but they were able to add 3 nice pieces also. Higgins has proven to be a solid 2 way forward with good speed. He’s recorded 84 goals in 282 NHL games which prorates out to just more than 24 goals in an 82 game schedule.

McDonaugh was a first round draft pick of the Canadiens in 2007 and has a bright future ahead of him and Valentenko has the ability to be a solid NHL regular too. Busto and Pyatt will likely never be more than spare parts in the NHL.

The key to this deal of course was the expected cap savings of more than $5 million; the difference between Gomez’s cap number and the expected cap hit of Higgins. This made the Rangers relevant again in the UFA game.

Grade: A Impact Rating: 5 Total Points: 20

Rangers sign F Marian Gaborik to a 5 year, $37.5 million contract.

We’ve already talked about the high risk, high reward nature of this deal. Gaborik has averaged better than .59 goals per game over the last 4 seasons. Unfortunately, Gaborik has only appeared in 207 of a possible 328 regular season games over those last 4 seasons; including just 17 contests last season. Hip and groin problems have kept him off the ice for long stretches. When healthy, there are few players with the offensive ability that Gaborik has.

Obviously, the big question will be whether Gaborik can stay healthy. The doctor who performed the surgery on Gaborik’s hip is confident that his injury problems are a thing of the past. Maybe I am being too optimistic but I think it’s high time a big UFA signing works out for the Rangers. The other question involving Gaborik is who will center him. I say it won’t matter because the Wild never had a top-notch pivot to center Gaborik and he still produced big numbers. He’ll do the same here though I won’t give an A grade because of the injury history.

Grade: B Impact Rating: 5 Total Points: 15

Rangers Sign F Donald Brashear as an UFA While UFA F Colton Orr Leaves the Rangers to Sign with the Leafs.

Even though these were two separate transactions, I will grade them together since it almost works like a trade for the Rangers. This move was problematic for Rangers’ fans on a few different fronts. We still vividly remember that it was Brashear who blind-sided fan favorite Blair Betts with a late elbow in last year’s playoffs and knocked him out with a facial injury. Additionally, Brashear replaces another fan favorite, Colton Orr, who was allowed to walk as an UFA to Toronto for a deal that averages around $1 million a year over four years. The Rangers will pay Brashear an average of $1.4 million per for the next two seasons.

Sather says that Brashear is a little quicker and gets into the offensive zone faster on the fore check. I saw Orr as an improving player that was continuing to work on his skating. Brashear is 37 years old while Orr is 10 years his junior. The Hockey News does say that Brashear “Has a decent skating stride.” and “Is still one of the best pugilists in the NHL. “ The Hockey News also says that Orr “Lacks the skating speed needed to keep up with the NHL's fastest players.” This seems to corroborate Sather’s position though I think that Orr was improving daily in that regard. I also think that Sather paid a higher rate (albeit for a shorter term) for a player with a reputation.

Grade: D Impact Rating: 2 Total Points: 2

Former Ranger Nik Antropov Signs a 4 Year, $16 million Deal with Atlanta

Antropov was wanted back by the Rangers but the Rangers were not willing to meet his demands. Supposedly Antropov wanted more than $5 million annually from the Rangers. Sather balked at that asking price and signed Gaborik instead. Ilya Kovalchuk then helped convince Thrashers’ GM Don Waddell to sign Antropov to a $4 million a year deal.

If it was true that Antropov asked the Rangers for $5 million annually then Sather was wise to pass. Antropov has still not recorded a 30-goal season in his 6 full NHL seasons. He has also never scored 60 or more points in any season. With Kovalchuk, Antropov may finally start to produce the numbers that his ability and now his salary suggest.

Grade: B Impact Rating: 3 Total Points: 9

Fredrik Sjostrom Signs a 2 Year Deal with Calgary.

Sjostrom proved himself to be a solid defensive forward in the year-and-a-half he spent with the Rangers. He has great speed but questionable hands have relegated Sjostrom to 3rd line and penalty killing duties. He signed a bargain deal averaging only $750,000 per year with Calgary after the Rangers declined to submit a qualifying offer.

This may prove to be a mistake by the Rangers. At the price he signed with Calgary for, Sjostrom could have continued as a solid defensive forward with the Blue Shirts. His speed also creates enough chances for line mates even if Sjostrom doesn’t have natural goal-scorers hands.

Grade: D Impact Rating: 2 Total Points: 2

Paul Mara Signs a 1 Year Deal with the Canadiens.

Mara was a guy I was hoping the Rangers would re-sign to help bridge the gap to the young players like Del Zotto and Sanguinetti. Unfortunately Mara signed with Montreal instead. Mara played a more physical game last year and was a model teammate.

Mara was a high draft pick that didn’t quite pan out the way he was expected to. He has altered his game and has still developed into a very solid top 6 defenseman. For the approximately $1.6 million salary, Mara is a great acquisition by the Canadiens and a big loss for the Rangers.

Grade: F Impact Rating: 3 Total Points: 0

Rangers Trade F Lauri Korpikoski to Phoenix for F Enver Lisin

This is another case of the Rangers letting more defensively inclined forwards go in favor of guys that can put the puck in the net. Korpikoski had a decent rookie season; he demonstrated that while he may never become a top offensive threat he will be a solid defensive winger.

Lisin has awesome goal scoring talent. This is purely an upside move for the Rangers. Lisin is the typical boom-or-bust type of prospect. He needs work on multiple aspects of his game but the one thing he does well is score goals. He was the fastest skater in his draft class and adds another speed guy to the Rangers’ forward ranks.

Grade: B Impact Rating: 2 Total Points: 6

Progress Report Grade: C - 2.45 GPA (54 total points, 22 impact rating points)

While I like the Gomez trade and the Gaborik signing, I really think the Rangers missed the boat by letting Sjostrom and Mara walk away. The Lisin acquisition could really turn out to be a steal. Bringing in Brashear over Orr was a loss given the Average Annual Salary and the age factors.

Overall, the Rangers get a C. They did great in the trade market by dealing Gomez and Korpikoski but took some chances in free agency. That seems to be a staple of Sather’s over the last 5 or 6 years. Rangers’ fans are still waiting for his first, big UFA hit. Hopefully Gaborik proves to be that hit. Meanwhile allowing defensive stalwarts Sjostrom, Betts and Korpikoski leave is gambling that the Rangers 4 new, more offensively inclined lines will be more helpful come playoff time than the team that was knocked out in the first round last year.

4 comments:

Paul Kreischer said...

Glen:

Where do you see the Rangers in the standings of the Eastern Conference? I'm not asking if they're playoff bound, that's too early, but do you feel they could be contenders?

Glen Miller said...

Playoff contenders yes, contenders for the top spot in the East not really. If things fell right they could but that would be asking for a lot. I think that Philly will actually win the Atlantic. I see the Rangers finishing 6th or so in the East. Gaborik would have to be pretty much injury free; Drury, Rozsival and Redden will have to play much better; and young players like Staal, Girardi, Callahan and Dubi would have to continue to show improvement for the Rangers to be serious threats in the East. Lundqvist can keep the Rangers in most games but if he were to break down forget it. Like I said that's probably asking for too much.

Mark22 said...

Great write-up, Glen. I already commented on the Islanders write-up, but this was just another great article! You and Justin really have something going here! I see Gaborik scoring in the 30 goal range, if he is able to play in more than 60 games. He is quite the wildcard, but he is one hell of a player when he is healthy. We will see how this contract plays out in the long run.

Unknown said...

SATHER should go back to Canada and retire. Why is he still here messing up the Rangers chances? Brashear is a dumb bully who cannot skate and is 10 years older than Orr. WAKE UP YOU STUPID SATHER.....