Sunday, August 30, 2009

Defending Statistical Analysis

As a self-proclaimed advocate of Statistical Analysis and its potential in the world of hockey I must now defend the practice after a recent blog authored by former Minnesota Wild Assistant GM Tom Lynn was published on The Hockey News on August 28th. For those of you who may be interested in reading the whole post, here is the link: http://thehockeynews.com/articles/27659-Tom-Lynns-Blog-Why-statistical-information-can-only-take-you-so-far.html

While not an outright condemnation of the use of statistical analysis, Lynn does seem to compose his blog with a condescending tone towards the “professionals, professors and students, each purporting to have developed a mathematical measurement of player performance that would ensure success on the ice.” In truth, I agree with much of what Mr. Lynn has to say in his blog; to a certain extent. “The key to understanding the usefulness of statistics is context.” Lynn argues. He then cites an argument used during the arbitration hearing of former Avalanche forward Antti Laaksonen: “I heard an argument in a salary arbitration case years ago that Antti Laaksonen, then one of the better defensive wingers in the game, had only one less even-strength goal than Joe Sakic in 2000-2001, so the only thing standing between Laaksonen and superstardom was Sakic’s five minutes in power play time per game” Of course, as Lynn contends, there is no way that Laaksonen ever should have been compared to Sakic for purposes of considering value and salary.

Another scenario cited by Lynn as an example of stats being misleading because of the context with which the stats were presented was the trade of the late Sergei Zholtok from Montreal to Edmonton for a 9th round draft choice. After coming off of a 26 goal season, it would have seemed that Zholtok should have had more value than a lowly 9th round draft choice but as Lynn states in his post, “On closer examination, however, one found that the Canadiens’ top two centers, Saku Koivu and Trevor Linden, had been injured much of the 1999-2000 season and Zholtok had received all of the offensive center ice time during that stretch, giving him the opportunity for a career year.” Lynn’s position makes sense; context is critical when using statistics to assess the values of players.

I do think that Mr. Lynn is over-simplifying statistical analysis. In both of the examples mentioned above the only stat being referenced is goals scored; Laaksonen’s number of even-strength goals relative to that of Joe Sakic’s and Sergei Zholtok’s goals scored in a given year. The whole purpose of modern analysis is to develop numbers and stats that encompass more than just goals or points. In previous points I have identified a number of modern stats that attempt to incorporate as many facets of a player’s on-ice contributions as possible. These new stats try to account for factors such as when goals are scored, the strength of competition that a player faces in given situations, etc. Essentially they are doing their best to make context a part of the formula.

Mr. Lynn also mentions that the NHL already distributes a plethora of statistical information to the teams, although, “the approaches tended to be hindsight oriented, meaning they were designed to explain events that happened in the past, rather than what is going to happen in the future. Put another way, it is much easier to develop a scientific explanation for how a tornado developed than it would be to accurately predict the next one”. This statement is dead on. Trying to use a mathematical formula to predict a player’s future performance is next to impossible. Again, though, I think that Mr. Lynn is at least partially missing the boat. Advanced statistics aren’t designed to project a player’s future contributions as much as they are designed to gauge past contributions in order to establish a trend. The key is in evaluating trends involving a specific player and combining that with traditional methods of player evaluation.

The most practical way to utilize advanced statistics, or metrics, is the same way as what any management team of any business should be looking at; through the parameters of trends. For example, if a player has scored at least 30 goals in 4 out of the previous 5 seasons and none of the underlying factors change (i.e. player is not reaching an age where a decline in production should be anticipated or the player has not changed teams, etc.) then isn’t it reasonable to conclude that this player is likely to score at least 30 goals again the next season? This is an example of utilizing statistical trends to project future production while incorporating context. It’s the same as any company projecting anticipated sales based on previous years’ numbers for the same period.

In actuality, despite the perceived sleight of statistical analysis, Mr. Lynn has actually reinforced my own position on its use in the NHL. Mr. Lynn never says there isn’t a place for advanced statistics in the NHL; rather he seems to argue that it is important to not discount the other elements of player evaluation. That’s a position that I can agree with.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The Seidenberg Domino


Rangers in Talks with UFA D Dennis Seidenberg; is a Trade for Heatley in the Works Then?

According to reports from both Steve Zipay of Newsday and The Hockey News, a story out of Germany says that the New York Rangers are one of two teams engaged in discussions with the agent for UFA Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg on a contract. The other team is reportedly the Florida Panthers. Seidenberg is supposedly seeking a three year deal while it appears that both the Rangers and the Panthers are hesitant to offer that term with questions surrounding next season’s salary cap ceiling.

In terms of what Seidenberg can offer the Rangers, I would say that like the courtship of fellow UFA D Francis Bouillon, the Blue Shirts would be getting some needed depth on the back line. With rumors still circulating that Sather is shopping veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival and the possibility that 2 rookies could crack the top six as the roster sits now, it makes a ton of sense for the club to bring in an experienced hand for added blue line depth.

According to The Hockey News, Seidenberg “moves the puck quickly and efficiently out of the defensive zone,” and he “knows when to pinch in from the point and is rather effective with the man advantage.” That’s not exactly high praise but it sounds as if Seidenberg can help the Rangers out especially from a depth perspective while also providing a fall back in case a suitor for Rozsival is found.

Apparently conversations have been going on for quite some time between Seidenberg’s side and the Rangers so I don’t think this might be a precursor to the on-again/off-again rumored acquisition of Dany Heatley. Speculation had previously centered on the possible involvement of Rozsival in any package headed back to Ottawa in exchange for Heatley.

NHLSCAP.com shows the Rangers are just a shade under $1.2 million below this year’s salary cap ceiling. Not counting RFA Brandon Dubinsky (who along with Rozsival was rumored to have been requested by Ottawa in the package for Heatley) the Rangers have 13 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies under contract. Trading for Heatley would require the inclusion of another roster player by the Rangers with a fairly substantial cap hit to offset the $2.5 million difference between Heatley’s ($7.5 million) and Rozsival’s ($5 million) cap figures. Since Dubinsky is a RFA he counts for nothing against the cap number on NHLSCAP.com.

Even if the Rangers demoted both Pat Rismiller and Aaron Voros with their $1 million cap price the Rangers would then only be around $700,000 under the cap if they swung a deal for Heatley and didn’t include another roster player. I don’t see that being enough to acquire Seidenberg and it would also leave the Rangers at the minimum in terms of Forwards and Defensemen on the roster. Sorry Rangers fans; unless Ottawa wants Ales Kotalik in addition to Rozsival it would be too tough to fit all of the pieces under the cap.

In fact, I find it more likely that Florida ends up with Seidenberg since they have more cap space and just as much need for a veteran blue liner. Again a quick look at NHLSCAP.com shows the Panthers have just 4 experienced Defensemen under contract (Bryan McCabe, Keith Ballard, Bryan Allen and Jordan Leopold) and nearly $7 million in available cap space if you deduct Brett McLean (who I believe was bought out earlier this summer?)

Another question I have; with only $1.2 million in cap space, how in the world does Sather intend to sign Seidenberg (or any other depth defenseman) and re-sign Dubinsky? It won’t work. Even if Dubinsky accepted his tender of $600,000+ it would only leave that much for Seidenberg. No, Sather may be up to something else but I don’t think it will be the acquisition of Dany Heatley.

Balsillie Just Won't Go Away


In an apparent attempt to apply pressure the U.S. Bankruptcy Court and more specifically presiding Judge Redfield T. Baum to rule in his favor, Jim Balsillie has submitted an amended proposal to purchase the Phoenix Coyotes. The amended proposal sets a deadline of September 14th for Judge Baum to accept Balsillie’s bid of $212.5 million for the team. He also asks that Judge Baum disregard the NHL Board of Governor’s recent 26 – 0 vote rejecting Ballsillie’s ownership application and to allow Balsillie to move the franchise to Hamilton immediately.

I for one am getting real tired of Balsillie. When he originally was attempting to purchase the Penguins and subsequently the Predators and move them to Canada, I was all for it. I thought of Balsillie in the same light as I do the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, a pain and an annoyance to most but still good for the game. There is nothing wrong with being an involved and passionate owner. Subtracting a U.S. team from a weak market and taking it back to Canada wouldn’t hurt my feelings or pride as an American. Unfortunately Balsillie doesn’t seem to care about the rules and processes that it would take to become an owner the traditional way. Instead he wants to use every trick in the book including a public relations campaign designed to lower the value of a franchise (as he apparently did in Nashville).

Now he is altering his original proposal to pressure a judge into overruling the NHL and allowing him to buy and then move the Phoenix franchise because he couldn’t get what he wanted the proper way. Basically he is saying that if he can’t get what he wants then he’ll pick up his toys and go home. I’ve got a message for Mr. Balsillie: Hit the Bricks Bud!

How does he expect the NHL to react when he has not shown willingness to play by their rules? If he wants to join their club then he is going to have to abide by their rules, even if they aren’t fair or just. Instead he has elected to try to strong-arm the league and he has selected Judge Baum to be his weapon. I see no way now that Judge Baum will rule in his favor. As intelligent a businessman as Balsillie is purported to be, I don’t understand how he thought that this tactic would be successful. I’m not even a party to this from the perspective that I am not a Coyotes fan a Canadian citizen, Judge Baum or another NHL owner but Balsillie’s actions have annoyed me.

In fact, I wonder if this is just Balsillie trying to save face in front of the citizens of Hamilton and Canadians everywhere. He must know that there is almost no way that Judge Baum will rule in his favor and basically spit in the face of the NHL by doing so. Maybe by doing this he is putting himself in position to tell the people of Hamilton “hey, I tried my best but the League is conspiring against me and doesn’t want another Canadian team.” That way he can look like a hero still and deflect attention from some of the shady tactics he is alleged to have used.

It should speak volumes when Eugene Melnyk, owner of the Ottawa Senators, speaks up and denounces Balsillie’s attempts to purchase a team and move it to Canada. Melnyk himself is a Canadian and purchased the Ottawa Senators out of bankruptcy to ensure that they were not sold and moved to the U.S. It would appear that Melnyk has the best interests of hockey in Canada at heart. He is now on record though as saying, "I clearly believe the sport of hockey is better off without him," which was a quote from a statement made by Melnyk in response to allegations made by Balsillie about the NHL’s not taking into account the character of other potential owners. Melnyk took exception to the implication (whether direct or not) that Melnyk’s character was questionable. Melnyk went on to say, "I will say in response publicly that his willingness to drag down anyone he can get his hands on along with him is discouraging and saddens me,” said Melnyk.

It should be pretty obvious to all that Mr. Balsillie has no chance of winning either the battle or the war. Instead of acting like a petulant child he should walk away from these proceedings with as much grace as possible in this situation. Mr. Balsillie, I implore you, just go away.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Torts or Renney


I’m going to preface the body of this post by offering up my opinion of John Tortorella as Head Coach of the New York Rangers. I believe that for the first time since Mike Keenan was coach in 1994, we actually have someone capable of leading a team to greatness. As I watched Tortorella behind the bench last year I got the sense that he could almost will the team to victory despite the lack of talent on the roster. I’m not sure why that is exactly; it’s just a feeling. He does have a Stanley Cup on his resume but then so do other coaches whom I don’t hold in such reverence as I do with Tortorella. This is nothing against the coaches who have been here since Keenan left but I have more confidence that Torts can deliver a Stanley Cup to New York than I ever did with Ron Low, Colin Campbell, Bryan Trottier or Tom Renney.

Now that I have that off my chest, let me delve into the real purpose of the post. Since we’ve had nearly 30 games of Rangers hockey under the Tortorella administration (regular season and playoff games included) and an off-season with him at the helm, I thought it would be entertaining to compare him to his predecessor, Tom Renney. I’ll break down the styles of both coaches. Ultimately we’ll get a sense of whether or not the Rangers will have more success under Torts than they would have had Renney remained in charge.

Renney: Renney took over the head coaching position for the final handful of games preceding the lockout. Coming out of the lockout, Renney inherited a team that most pundits thought lacked the necessary talent to even challenge for a playoff spot. His only proven star was the enigmatic Jaromir Jagr who had been acquired before the lockout after a disappointing tenure in the Nation’s Capital. Sather surrounded Jagr with several fellow Czech natives like: Marty Straka, Petr Prucha, Michal Rozsival, Martin Rucinsky and Marek Malik. In net, the Rangers were counting on veteran journeyman Kevin Weekes to hold down the #1 spot and for rookie Henrik Lundqvist to handle the back-up role after coming over from Sweden.

Renney made it a point to focus on team chemistry. He took the team through a boot-camp style trip that was specifically designed to create a bond between the players on the roster. He also focused on instilling structure to the team and a defensive conscious. This approach had great success as the Rangers surprisingly qualified for the playoffs for the first time in 8 seasons. While seeing resurgence in the play of Jagr and getting outstanding play in net from rookie Lundqvist, Renney’s greatest success may have been getting Jagr to play at his highest level in years.

After a couple of years of constructing a team around Jagr, Sather switched gears and brought in veteran Centers Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. It seemed that Sather was adding more speed in Gomez while also preparing for life after Jagr by entrusting Gomez and Drury as the new faces of the franchise. Unfortunately it seemed that Sather’s desire to add more speed to the lineup wasn’t really conducive to Renney’s more laid back and conservative style of coaching. Sather was trying to re-create the Rangers in the image of the Oiler’s dynasty of the ‘80’s while Renney appeared best suited to coaching a trapping, defensive team.

Ultimately, after 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others, the Rangers parted ways with Renney despite 3 playoff berths and 2 playoff round victories. At the time of his firing, the Rangers were barely hanging onto a post-season berth and iced on of the worst teams offensively in the NHL. To compound matters, the team’s power play was among the least succesful in the NHL too.

Torts: With 20 or so games remaining in the regular season and the Rangers perilously close to missing the post season, enter John Tortorella. Tortorella was a former Rangers’ assistant who also filled in as the interim coach for four games in 1999 – 2000 after the dismissal of Ron Low. Tortorella is a fiery coach who isn’t afraid to display his emotions. He showed that trait off in the playoff series with Washington when he was suspended for Game 6 after throwing a water bottle into the stands at fans who had been harassing the Rangers bench.

Tortorella, who won the cup in 2003 – 2004 while coaching the Lightning, favors up-tempo hockey. He insists that his forwards are aggressive on the fore check and that his defensemen look to activate in the offensive zone. He is a stickler for conditioning as he encourages his players to pressure the opposition from the moment the puck is dropped. One of his biggest criticisms of the Rangers’ team last season was a lack of conditioning and stamina which affected their play late in games.

Tortorella is also not shy about criticizing his own players in the media. He had notable run-ins with Vaclav Prospal during Prospal’s two separate stints with the Lightning. It should be noted that Prospal can’t harbor much of a grudge since he just signed on for a third stint under Torts with the Rangers. It was also thought that Torts wasn’t much of a Scott Gomez fan though Torts has tried not to say anything critical of Gomez in public.

Conclusion: This is actually a no-brainer once you accept the fact that Glen Sather is hell-bent on trying to re-construct those famous Oiler teams of the eighties here in New York. He favors speed and a free-flowing style and that can be seen in many of his player acquisitions in the last several years. This type of player didn’t always mesh well with Renney’s style but will certainly fit into Tortorella’s.

Whether or not Tortorella can lead this year’s team to a better record and more playoff success than his predecessor is yet to be seen. The one thing that I am confident in though is that Tortorella is the right man for the job in New York with these Rangers.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Marleau Stripped of Captaincy, Cue the Trade Rumors


Now that it was officially announced that Sharks Head Coach Scott McLellan has stripped Patrick Marleau of the captaincy of the team I expect that rumors will begin again of Marleau being shipped out of San Jose. As is usually the case with either high-profile free agents or trade targets, the Rangers will almost assuredly be linked to the potential acquisition of Marleau. However in this case I wouldn’t put much credence in those rumors, should they crop up.

Even though the Rangers do lack a true #1 Center, the Rangers are in no position to make a deal for Marleau. Several factors would work against the possibility of making any deal with the Sharks, not the least of which is the Rangers cap situation.

Currently, the Rangers sit just short of $1.2 million below the salary cap ceiling according to http://www.nhlscap.com/. Of course the Rangers still have RFA Brandon Dubinsky to get under contract before the season starts. Given that the Rangers qualified him and there are few teams that seem willing at this point to sacrifice both salary cap space and draft picks for his services, it seems likely that Dubinsky will either agree to a long term deal with the Rangers or be forced to play for the salary dictated by the qualifying offer already submitted. If the Rangers are able to convince Dubinsky to agree to a long term deal they have plenty of options in terms of demoting players to the AHL to create the space necessary to fit Dubinsky under the cap so re-signing him long-term would seem to be an appealing option.

With Drury, the acquisition of Prospal, the likely re-signing of Dubinsky and the expected promotion of Artem Anisimov, the Rangers have enough solid candidates to fill the Center positions on the team. While an upgrade would be helpful there isn’t the significant cap space needed to add any salary once Dubinsky either agrees to terms or accepts his qualifying offer. Therefore any trade to acquire a player like Marleau would have to include salary headed back the other way. Given the salary cap situation of the Sharks (they sit less than $600,000 under the cap according to http://www.nhlscap.com/ with only 9 forwards under contract) it seems unlikely that they would want to take significant salary back in a trade for Marleau.
Some have pointed to the Prospal signing as evidence that Dubinsky is unhappy with what the Rangers have offered and therefore the Rangers may move Dubinsky (and other assets) in exchange for a veteran scoring Center. I see the Prospal signing as giving Head Coach John Tortorella options with regards to his forward ranks. Prospal enjoyed some of his best seasons while playing in Tampa for Tortorella and can play both Center and the Wing.

I apologize to any Rangers fans who might have been interested in trading for Marleau but it just isn’t plausible from either the Rangers’ or the Sharks’ perspectives. Look for Sather to get Dubinsky under contract and for the Rangers to go with what they have until the players already on the roster show that they can’t hang in the NHL. If the Rangers were seriously just a top Center away from being a Stanley Cup contender then I could see them making a move like this but unfortunately that isn’t where they sit.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Rangers Add Prospal and Bring Back the Captain……..Finally


Apparently Glen Sather and John Tortorella agreed with me in regards to Vinny Prospal. In a previous post I floated the idea of the Rangers looking at Prospal to address their lack of depth at the Center position. When I first mentioned the idea I met with some comments that gently reminded me that Prospal and Tortorella didn’t necessarily get along in their time together in Tampa. I rationalized the potential reunion by pointing out that Prospal enjoyed some of his best statistical seasons while playing for Torts in Tampa. The Lightning even re-acquired Prospal from the Ducks after Prospal had signed with Anaheim as a free agent. It figures that Torts liked Prospal enough that he signed off on then Tampa GM Jay Feaster’s move to bring Prospal back.
Prospal figures to fill one of the top 2 center spots with the Rangers. He may even be fortunate enough to skate with Marian Gaborik. This development could result in Prospal continuing his trend of following up a lackluster season with a good season. After recording just 45 points in 82 games, Prospal should easily be in line for 60+ if playing with Gaborik for a full season.
Obviously I like this move for the Rangers as it gives them depth up front. Brandon Dubinsky can play on the 2nd line or with Gaborik on the #1 line. Drury can slide in at a wing on any line while I still see Artem Anisimov making this team and skating on the 3rd line. Prospal isn’t a first line Center but he certainly makes the Rangers better offensively.
Another note of interest for Rangers fans; Mark Messier has been hired as a special assistant to Sather. Messier has been very vocal in his desire to get back into the game in a front office capacity. He is approaching his new position with open eyes. He realizes that despite his 25 years of playing experience he still has a lot to learn on the business side of the game. The “Moose” will approach this job with the same intensity and level of dedication that he put into his on-ice career. It’s great to see Messier back in the NHL and it’s especially good that he is back where he belongs; with the Rangers.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

The Chances of Balsillie Becoming Owner of the Coyotes


By Glen Miller

Most of us are familiar with the happenings in Phoenix in regards to the attempted sale of the team by owner Jerry Moyes to Research in Motion Co-CEO Jim Balsillie. Balsillie is also the founder of the website “Makeitseven.ca”, which is a website dedicated to bringing a seventh team to Canada. Balsillie has never hidden his intent to buy and ultimately move an NHL franchise to Canada; presumably to the Hamilton, Ontario market.



Of course, the NHL Board of Governors has rejected Jim Balsillie’s application for ownership contending, among other things, that Balsillie engaged in shady tactics in his previous attempts to buy an NHL team. Craig Leipold, former owner of the Nashville Predators and current owner of the Minnesota Wild, is on record at a Board of Governors’ meeting describing Balsillie’s attempts in 2007 to (in his opinion) purposely lower the value of the Predators’ franchise in an attempt to make it less desirable for the NHL to keep the team in the Nashville market.
Stories have also recently surfaced that Balsillie fueled some of the rumors that George Gillet was looking to sell the Montreal Canadiens and that he was interested in purchasing them. Gillet denied that he was looking to sell the storied franchise but ultimately did agree to sell the team back to the Molson.




Despite the rejection of his application by the NHL, Balsillie will still be allowed to participate in the auction to buy the Coyotes which concludes September 10th. Clearly Balsillie will not be outbid by anyone in his attempt to buy the Coyotes. This will set up an intriguing battle potentially between the NHL and the court system that is overseeing the Coyotes bankruptcy proceedings. Judge Redfield Baum is acting as if he has the authority to pick the next owner of the Coyotes without the approval of the NHL. Especially since he said that all bids to purchase the struggling Coyotes franchise would be accepted; even specifically mentioning that Balsillie’s bid would be considered.



If Judge Baum selects Balsillie’s bid as the winning bid then the NHL will surely challenge Baum’s authority in the matter. They will argue that since Balsillie’s application for ownership was reviewed and unanimously rejected by the NHL Board of Governors, the Judge shouldn’t disregard the wishes of the league. Already the other major professional sports leagues (NBA, MLB and NFL) have come out in support of the NHL’s attempt to secure an ownership group willing to keep the team in Phoenix and thus be able to continue to exercise control over the process of ownership approval.



I can’t blame the NHL or its current owners for feeling this way. The NHL has to fairly represent the business interests of all 30 member teams in the league and not just the interests of one. That mentality is crucial to the long term success of the league. Of course having a team like the Coyotes losing $30 million annually isn’t beneficial to the other teams in the league as it could certainly affect the franchise values of all teams in the league. However the NHL can’t simply allow anyone with the money and the desire to own a team, join the exclusive fraternity of NHL Ownership. The NHL has to be concerned with how their owners conduct business. They have to act on a united front in their dealings with the Player’s Union and other professional leagues (such as the KHL). A potential owner who has already demonstrated disdain for how the fraternity operates and a willingness to act in his own best interests is not likely to win the Board of Governors over.



Additionally, the NHL has other factors to consider when teams are up for sale and/or relocation. The League has already had issues with part owners (William “Boots” Del Baggio and Len Barrie) either struggling to meet their financial commitments or with just flat perpetrating fraud in order to obtain their finances. They also have to consider to whose territory a relocated team will be entering and how much financial damage that could potentially do to the team already located in that market or territory.



I can certainly understand the reservations the Board of Governors hold for Balsillie. A number of reports out of Nashville and even Phoenix pertaining to some of his tactics in his negotiations to buy those teams have cast a shadow on his business ethics. Even if Balsillie’s offer trumps that of his primary competition, Jerry Reinsdorf, given their respective reputations in the sports world, Reinsdorf is a far more appealing candidate for owner.



I would be highly upset if Judge Baum overlooked all of the questions surrounding Balsillie’s tactics in this and previous attempts to purchase an NHL team. It shouldn’t always be about who has the deepest pockets or is willing to spend the most. Credibility should be the most important criteria when considering potential owners. The NHL has already goofed on several instances and can’t afford to make another poor choice. Reinsdorf has a track record of building successful organizations and I feel that he should be the one entrusted with the future of the Coyotes team whether he elects to keep the team in Phoenix or even if he wanted to move the team. For me it isn’t a question of whether the team should move or not; it’s about installing the right person as owner to make that decision.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

A Quick Look at the 2009-2010 NYI - Part II

Today I will be taking a quick look at lines three and four for the upcoming 2009-2010 NHL season. If you haven’t already seen lines one and two, be sure to check below!

Line 3:

Left Wing: Jeff Tambellini, Center: Frans Nielsen, Right Wing: Blake Comeau

Tambellini: Under Ted Nolan, Tambellini failed to make any impact at the NHL level, and was constantly being demoted back to AHL duty. After the firing of Nolan, and the hiring of Gordon, it became apparent that Tambellini was finally going to be given the opportunity to perform at the NHL level for a full season. After a somewhat disheartening season, Tambellini is going to get his final opportunity to prove himself with the big boys. I truly believe he has the ability to become a goal-scorer, however, he will need to add some weight in order to bump around with the big boys. His shot is world class, as you can tell by the three astounding shootout snipes he had from well-behind the hash-marks against elite goaltenders such as Marc-Andre Fleury and Henrik Lundqvist, however, he needs to develop that confidence he has in the AHL. I truly hope he proves his worth, because he has the ability to be a great player.

Nielsen: I am a tremendous Nielsen fan. After watching him play last season, I truly feel that Islanders have a great center in Nielsen who is great both on the offensive side of the game, as well as the defensive side of the game. Gifted with great skating ability and speed, Nielsen also has a great vision of the game and has no problem skating the puck into the opponent’s zone. His point production was rather decent last year, up until the dirty hit that was laid upon him by Mottau of the New Jersey Devils. If Nielsen is able to stay in the line-up for a full NHL season, there is no reason why he won’t be able to put up at least 50 points, especially considering he will be manning an important position on the second power-play unit. I hope he continues to develop at the current pace, as he will be a very successful player for the Islanders, and an important piece to the rebuild.

Comeau: Finally, Comeau has signed on to the Islanders for two more years at a very affordable rate. Comeau is a big player in the mold of a power forward who is also fortunate enough to be a fairly decent skater. If Comeau wants to become a great player in this league, he needs to learn to drive the net rather than spinning off and looking for a pass. He has the frame to do so, now he just needs to grow into his frame. Comeau has the ability to develop into a second-line player; however, he will be put on the third line for most of the season because of the players ahead of him on the depth chart. If he plays up to his potential, and with a full season in the NHL, Comeau should be able to score fifteen or more goals. Let us hope that he finally learns his niche on the team, and develops his frame for the rigorous season.

Line 4:

Left Wing: Jon Sim, Center: Richard Park, Right Wing: Tim Jackman

Sim: With one year remaining on his absurd three-year deal, Jon Sim will be given the opportunity to prove himself once more as an NHL caliber player. After being assigned to Bridgeport for the remainder of the 2008-2009 season, Sim easily became their best player and their most lethal goal scorer. That is obviously not saying much for an NHL caliber player who simply just lost his ability to compete in the NHL. It is the hope of the Islanders that Sim is able to drop a few pounds and come into training camp in good enough shape to compete in Gordon’s high-tempo style of play. For a guy who has the ability to score more than fifteen goals in a season, it is the hope of Islander fans that he returns in great shape. On top of that, Sim rarely shy’s away from defending his teammates, and considering the Islanders’ lack of fighting ability, he might be pleasantly welcome.

Park: A heart-and-soul player that you simply cannot dislike, Park has the ability to move up and down lines and compete in any position that any coach asks of him. He is a talented and speedy, but small player who is one of the best penalty killers on the team, and still can manage to put back a few goals per season. Although his talent dictates him to be a third or fourth liner, Park is the kind of player that can step up his game when necessary and fill in for any injured player. As the anchor for the fourth line, we can expect the same heart-and-soul; speedy play from Park this year and every year he competes in the NHL.

Jackman: Signed to another one-year, one-way deal, Jackman is going to be a great presence on the fourth line this upcoming season. After showing up last season in top shape, it can be expected that Jackman will further improve his physical abilities in preparation for this upcoming season at the NHL level. He is a great skater, a player who doesn’t mind to throw his weight around, and every now and then he can even drop the gloves with some of the middleweights. While he would like to score a little bit more each year, Jackman understands and relishes his role with the New York Islanders. It is a lock for him to be the fourth line right wing, and I feel that he will do a great job at his position. Furthermore, as someone who can play the penalty kill, we may see him prove his worth even more this year. Best of luck to him.

That’s all for today’s quick look into the third and fourth lines for the 2009-2010 NHL season. Be sure to check back soon for a quick look at the Islanders defensive corps. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to shoot me an email at IslesNet@Gmail.Com.

-Justin M.

GVS - Goals Versus Salary Stat


by Glen Miller


The more that I surf the web looking for the newest in Advanced Statistics in Hockey, the more I realize how much I really like the Puck Prospectus website and the Behind the Net website. The people at those sites are creative and just plain brilliant. The latest and greatest was offered up by Robert Vollman on Puck Prospectus and it is called Goals Versus Salary (GVS). In case you wish to take a gander at it for yourself, here is the link: www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=236.

What GVS attempts to do in a nutshell is compare a player’s on-ice contributions (measured in Goals Versus Threshold – GVT) in relation to the player’s actual salary minus the approximate salary of a replacement level player. Baseball Prospectus has a similar stat in use for baseball called MORP (Money Over Replacement Player) that compares a player’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with his actual salary. This has the potential to be the most useful of the advanced statistics that I have found. Using this simple mathematical formula it becomes possible to not only see if a player is performing up to his commensurate salary but you can also determine what a fair salary would be for any player given his on-ice contributions.

The math of this formula is very simple assuming you already have access to the player’s GVT rating. For the purpose of this example I will use Marian Gaborik, currently of the Rangers and formerly of the Minnesota Wild:

Step 1. Take the Player’s actual salary ($7.5 million) and subtract from it the approximate cost of a replacement player or minor league/minimum salary player ($500,000). This leaves us with a figure of $7 million.

Step 2. Multiply the remainder by 3 - 7 * 3 = 21 (an explanation of why the number three is used will be offered further on in this post). Marian Gaborik’s GVT should have been +21 last season but unfortunately for him and for the Wild, it was only +5.6.

Step 3. Subtract the actual GVT (+5.6) by the GVT rating that he should have posted based on his salary (+21). This leaves you with -15.4 which was Marian Gaborik’s GVS rating for last season.

Now, a quick explanation of why we multiplied the remainder from Step 1 one by 3 as we did in Step 2. If we had a full roster (20 players) of replacement level players who all made the approximate league minimum salary ($500,000) our team payroll would be $10 million. The average payroll last season was approximately $50 million which leaves us with a difference of $40 million in payroll allocated for above replacement level production. This is the same thing we did in Step 1 of the GVS formula. The average GVT rating per team last season was around +120. If we divide the average team GVT rating (+120) by the $40 million left over in the above replacement level production payroll, we are left with 3 goals for every $1 million. That’s why we use three in that step.

Back to Step 3 for a moment. GVT is based in part using statistics more likely to be accrued while actually playing; like goals, assists and such. Thus if a player is injured and misses games then he is likely going to finish with a lower GVT and GVS rating than if he had played the whole year. This is the case with Gaborik who only appeared in 17 contests last season. Had he played a full season, he would have scored a +27 GVT rating given his pace through 17 games. That would have changed his GVS rating to a +6.

I actually don’t have a problem with the GVS stat reflecting poorly on players who miss time due to injuries or what have you. A player who is not on the ice is not producing and therefore not earning his salary. The purpose of this stat is to determine a player’s value in relation to his on-ice performance. This seems to work perfectly toward that end.

Let’s look at the 10 worst GVS ratings for last season to see what they may tell us:

Player Salary (in millions) GVT GVS
Mats Sundin $8.6 1.6 -22.7
Daniel Briere $8.0 4.3 -18.2
Wade Redden $8.0 4.4 -18.1
Joe Sakic $6.0 0.6 -15.9
Dany Heatley $10.0 13.0 -15.5
Marian Gaborik $7.5 5.6 -15.4
Brad Richards $7.8 6.6 -15.3
Sergei Zubov $5.4 -.04 -15.0
Mike Fisher $6.0 2.1 -14.4
Scott Gomez $8.0 8.2 -14.3

I’d have to agree that every player listed on the chart above severely underperformed expectations either because of injury or plain old poor performance. It’s also scary to realize the connection a lot of these players have to the New York Rangers. Two (Redden and Gomez suited up for the Rangers last season. Two more (Redden and Gaborik) will skate for the team this year. Mats Sundin was hotly pursued by Glen Sather last season before he ultimately signed with Vancouver. Richards and Heatley have both been rumored to be trade targets of Sather at various points this off-season. That means that of the 10 players with the worst GVS ratings last season, 6 have either been Rangers or were targeted by Glen Sather to be Rangers at some point. I’m thinking that I need to email this post to Glen Sather so maybe he can use this to help him properly gauge a player’s real value before next summer’s UFA spending spree.

One suggestion I have for improving this stat would be to weigh the player’s contributions versus his salary cap hit rather than his actual salary number. In the cases of Dany Heatley and Mike Fisher it would make a difference. Heatley earned $10 million in salary but because the contract is for a total of 6 years and $45 million, his annual cap hit is only $7.5. The same applies to Fisher who was paid $6 million but whose contract is for 5 years and $21 million or a $4.2 million annual cap hit. Using the cap numbers instead of the actual salaries would mean this:

Player Salary GVT GVS
Heatley $7.5 13.0 -8.0
Fisher $4.2 2.1 -9.0

Heatley’s GVS improved by 7.5 points while Fisher’s improved by 5.4.

Another thing to consider is it is natural that younger players with lower salaries and ascending statistical production are more likely to have better GVS ratings than older players whose salaries are higher but whose skill levels are in decline. Too many GM’s still reward veteran players with expensive contracts that pay them exorbitant salaries well into the declining phases of their careers. This stat unfortunately doesn’t predict a player’s future performance and should therefore only be used by GM’s who are seeking to establish the true worth of a player already in their prime or just entering it. That way they aren’t paying a player on a long term contract for what they were worth 3 or 4 years ago instead of what they would be worth at that time. The object is to pay less money for more production as often as possible.

Here is a list of the top 10 finishers from last season in the GVS category; let’s see if the chart backs up my statements about youth being served with the GSV stat.

Player Team Salary GVT GVS
Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh 0.98 23.4 +22.0
Zach Parise New Jersey 2.50 24.2 +18.2
David Krejci Boston 0.83 18.3 +17.3
Nicklas Backstrom Washington 0.85 17.4 +16.4
Phil Kessel Boston 0.85 15.3 +14.3
Johan Franzen Detroit 1.15 15.2 +13.3
Devin Setoguchi San Jose 0.85 13.9 +12.9
Loui Eriksson Dallas 1.50 15.5 +12.5
Anton Babchuk Carolina 1.00 13.7 +12.2
David Booth Florida 0.68 12.3 +11.8

Scrolling down this list you’ll find that 7 of the 10 players listed just completed either their 2nd or 3rd NHL season and thus were still playing on their entry level contracts. The other 3 just finished with their 4th season and none have been eligible to cash in on the big UFA bucks. This chart emphasizes exactly the point I made in the previous paragraph that younger players with some NHL experience are likely to have higher GSV ratings than older players with declining production.

I find this particular stat to be extremely useful in determining which teams are getting more bang for their buck; especially when competing in an environment dominated by the salary cap and the limitations it puts on a team’s budget. It is critical that GM’s (yes, this means you Glen Sather) do a better job of analyzing the real worth of players and managing their assets more like an everyday business does. The days of traditional player analysis is at an end.

The more research that I do the more I see that Statistical Analysis in hockey is making great strides almost daily. GVS is yet another example of the brilliance of some of the minds working to modernize the way in which hockey teams are run and hockey players are evaluated.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

The Little Ball of Hate to Make His Return?

By Glen Miller

I’m sure many of you have read that former All-Star Theo Fleury has shown up at camp with the Flames and has expressed a desire to return to the NHL. The NHL has already said that Fleury will need to complete the substance abuse program he was entered into when he walked away from the game some 4 years ago. Since he can’t participate with a team until he has been cleared by the NHL and the substance abuse program doctors, it is unlikely that Fleury would break camp with an NHL team as he won’t have enough time to complete the program and then win a roster spot in camp.

After competing last season in a senior league, Fleury has concluded that he is fit enough at age 41 to play in the NHL again. He hired a personal trainer to help him get back into top shape and has already sent a letter to the NHL informing them of his desire to play in the league again. Fleury was one of the best players in the NHL for a number of years until his substance abuse issues caught up with his play. Fleury has reportedly been sober for 4 years now.

While I commend Theo both on his sobriety and his competitive spirit, I don’t think he will be any more successful in his comeback bid than Claude Lemieux was last year. Theo has already overcome his lack of size to enjoy a highly successful career at this level and I would never count him out of anything entirely. However, any athlete will tell you that it is almost impossible to re-enter the competitive arena after a four-year layoff and have success; even at a younger age than Theo.

I’m sure that a team will take a flier on Theo and allow him to skate with their AHL or ECHL entry on a tryout for a period to see if he has anything left. The Sharks went so far as to send Lemieux over to an affiliate team they have in China before offering Claude the opportunity to play in the AHL. After moderate success in the AHL, Lemieux didn’t contribute much to the Sharks season and has since retired for good.

Fleury has said that his career didn’t end the way he wished and that is the motivation for his comeback bid. I wish him the best of luck but in all likelihood his skills have diminished to the point where he won’t be able to legitimately help an NHL team. This is a Hollywood story that won’t have a happy ending.

Monday, August 10, 2009

The Hockey News Picks Rangers 13th in East

By Glen Miller

Every year The Hockey News publishes their yearbook which includes their predictions on the final placements of each team within their conference for the upcoming season. This year they are posting on their website, http://thehockeynews.com, their predictions one place at a time. Needless to say I was quite surprised that they picked the Rangers to finish 13th in the East. Look, I thoroughly enjoy reading their preview magazine and the website. I think that Adam Proteau is one of the best hockey writers out there. However I have to emphatically disagree with their prediction of the Rangers finishing 13th in the Eastern Conference!!!

First let’s look at the Rangers: obviously they have radically changed their forward lineup by subtracting Scott Gomez, Nik Zherdev, Nik Antropov, Blair Betts, Fredrik Sjostrom, Lauri Korpikoski and Colton Orr while replacing them with Marian Gaborik, Chris Higgins, Ales Kotalik, Enver Lisin and Donald Brashear. They also saw veteran defensemen Derek Morris and Paul Mara leave via free agency. The team is expecting last year’s Hobey Baker winner as the best player in the NCAA last year, Matt Gilroy, to step in and assume a spot out of camp while also holding a spot for another rookie from an impressive crop of young blue liners. The King is back in net and as long as he stays healthy the Rangers will be strong in net.

Granted, figuring out what to expect from this team isn’t easy; frankly I’d rather take a shot at explaining where babies come from to a bunch of little kids. The Rangers do have the components up front to have a balanced attack especially if a couple of the younger players step it up. Of the players expected to skate a regular shift up front with the team, 5 (Drury, Gaborik, Callahan, Higgins and Kotalik) have scored 20+ goals in a season within the last couple of years. Sean Avery has a season in which he scored 18 goals and was on pace to score 16 last season if he had played a full schedule. Young players like Artem Anisimov, Enver Lisin and Brandon Dubinsky can realistically be expected to challenge the 20 goal mark in the coming years.

Defensively, they should be as good (I know, good is a relative term) as last year despite the losses of Mara and Morris just because I can’t imagine both Rozsival and Redden can be as bad as they were last year. Gilroy has the potential to be a solid two-way defender and at 24 and with his college experience, he should be able to step right in without missing much of a beat.

The King is the King and has deservedly been a Vezina trophy candidate for 3 of his 4 years in the league. He seems to slump for a stretch each year and it will be important for the team to get quality starts (and more of them) from backup Steve Valiquette; especially since Lundqvist will likely be the starter for Team Sweden at the Olympcs this year. The Rangers can not afford for Lundqvist to break down or wear out during the season.

John Tortorella will also get a full training camp to work with the team on improving their stamina and endurance. It seemed as if the squad would start to tire late in games last season after Torts took over. I also have a lot of faith in Tortorella’s coaching. I am confident that in a couple of years he can get this team deep into the playoffs.

I think it’s fair to say at this point that the team should be as good this year as they were last year. It’s not as if they won the President’s trophy and/or lost a lot of high end contributors from last year’s team. So if this team is as good as last years and The Hockey News predicts a 13th place finish then obviously a lot of the teams that finished behind the Rangers improved, right?? Really, where? I don’t see it. Here’s a breakdown of the teams that finished behind the Rangers in last year’s standings and whether or not they have improved themselves at all.

15. Islanders – They made the right move in drafting Tavares but in order to make up the 34 points they finished behind the Rangers they need more than that and the signing of 2 steady, if unspectacular, net minders.

14. Lightning – The Lightning have improved their greatest weakness, the defense, by adding solid vets like Matt Walker and Mattias Ohlund via UFA. But combine an uncertain ownership situation and an unproven coach, is it realistic to believe they can improve by 29 points over last year?

13. Thrashers - The Thrashers made a solid addition by picking up veteran D Pavel Kubina from Toronto. He is expensive at $5 million but only has one year left on his deal and the cost in terms of trade wasn’t too high. The team also added UFA Nik Antropov so they should be more potent offensively. However, their goaltending is still a big question mark and they would have to depend too much on young players like Bogosian and Little to expect them to improve by 19 points.

12. Toronto – The Leafs’ biggest move was bringing in Brian Burke to oversee their rebuild. He added UFA’s Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin to an already solid defense corps. Toronto is still lacking in offensive ability and by adding the toughness that they did this off-season will probably be short-handed a lot this season. That was not a situation in which they excelled at this past season. Goaltending is also an issue unless Toskala steps up or Gustavsson proves to be the real deal.

11. Senators – Sure they added the enigmatic Alexei Kovalev to boost their offense but face the likelihood of having to deal top line LW Dany Heatley. Right now the suitors aren’t exactly falling all over themselves to give up the farm for Dany boy so the chance remains that the distraction known as Dany Heatley will still be a member of the Senators come opening night. That situation won’t make it easy to improve upon last year’s result.

10. Buffalo – Lost Jaroslav Spacek and replaced him with steady vet Steve Montador but have done little else to date this off-season. They would need an injury-free season from Tim Connolly and some productive seasons from young players to move up into a playoff spot in my opinion. Ryan Miller also has to be healthy and more consistent.

9. Florida – They lost their best player in Jay Bouwmeester and have added nothing of real significance to off-set that loss. Unless one or more of the underachieving group of forwards (Horton, Weiss, Olesz) or youngsters like Michal Frolik and Shawn Matthias are ready to step up then Florida will struggle to be as good as last year.

Additionally, two teams that finished ahead of the Rangers in the standings, the Hurricanes and the Devils, did little to upgrade their rosters this off-season and appear poised to potentially fall out of the playoffs entirely. The Canes only finished 2 points ahead of the Rangers and besides replacing injured vet Frank Kaberle with vet Aaron Ward on defense, the Canes have done very little to improve their roster. I am also not convinced that Cam Ward is a top notch starting goalie in the NHL. I can see the Canes falling a few spots and missing the playoffs this year.

For the Rangers, who finished 7th in the East last year, to drop all the way to 13th, 6 teams would have to jump them in the standings. Of the group mentioned above I only see 1 or 2 teams that would seem able to make that leap (Tampa and maybe Toronto). That also assumes other teams like the Canes or Devils don’t fall in the standings also. I just don’t see why THN picked the Rangers to place that low in the conference.

A Quick Look at the 2009-2010 NYI

With the great success of the Lighthouse Conference past us, it’s time for the speculative fun to begin. Here at New York Hockey Net, I can tell you that the minds are drying with topics to write about as the hottest days of August arrive. Here, and everywhere around the league, it is a sure-fire bet that you will start seeing speculative pieces about the thirty respective teams and their line-ups for the upcoming season.

That being said, I am here today to provide a quick view into how I feel the Islanders will look come opening night against the Pittsburgh Penguins in terms of line-up. While Garth Snow may not be done with roster moves, I will utilize the current roster at hand to provide my opinion of how I feel the Islanders will look.

Today I will be analyzing the first and second line for the upcoming season, and the upcoming blog will be taking a look at lines three and four. The last blog, which will be up by weeks’ end, will take a glance into the Islanders defense. If you have any disagreements, please give me your take on how you feel the lines will look.

Line 1:

Left Wing: John Tavares, Center: Doug Weight, Right Wing: Trent Hunter

Tavares: I wholeheartedly believe that the Islanders, like the Pittsburgh Penguins did with Crosby, will play John Tavares on the wing to at least start the season. Although tremendously talented from the offensive blue line in, Tavares still has plenty of work to do on the rest of his game. To be fair, it is hard for any player to jump straight into the defensive side of the game as an NHL center, and we must give John the opportunity to develop properly. He will do very well playing wing, and Doug Weight will be a great mentor, and a great player passing him the puck.

Weight: There is no doubt that Weight will be the number one center next year. After an exceptional season that was cut somewhat short by several injuries, I believe Weight will return to his great form and be a great player for Tavares to develop under. Besides his speed and solid 5 on 5 player, Weight will contribute nicely on the power play as well.

Hunter: Somewhat of a surprise to be on the first line, however, I think Gordon will make sure that he provides some sort of physical presence on a line with Tavares. Known for his solid work along the boards and a grittier edge to his game, Hunter will be a great compliment to a line that features a pure passer and a pure goal scorer. Besides the gritty part of his game, Hunter can also knock back 20-plus a season when given the opportunity. If you know of a more physical Islander in the line-up with the skill to score some goals, please let me know.

Line 2:

Left Wing Sean Bergenheim, Center: Joshua Bailey, Right Wing: Kyle Okposo

Bergenheim: I really liked what I saw coming from Bergenheim last season when he entered into his little hot streak. Although very slow at developing, I do believe Bergenheim has a tremendous amount of talent, and he has second-line winger written all over him. If he can put on a few more pounds, work on his touch a little, and continue hitting everything he says with his phenomenal forecheck, the Islanders will have a great second-line left wing. There is no reason he can’t score twenty goals, and now he just needs to prove it to himself. With a growing playmaker like Bailey in the middle, he will be given more opportunity to score.

Bailey: For those of you who have not seen Bailey at his numerous public appearances this summer, the kid has easily put on at least 10-15 pounds in muscle. He looks much bigger than he did last year, and it looks like he will be able to endure the physical abuse a player takes in the NHL. With a great set of hands and vision, Bailey is an ideal playmaker in the mold of Doug Weight. After getting one year in the NHL under his belt, it will be a pleasure to watch him play an increased role in the Islanders rebuild next to Bergenheim and Okposo. If all goes well, Bailey could put up at least 30 assists this year, with the potential for much more in future seasons. I would also keep the expectations for his goal output in the 10-15 range, as he still needs to prove he knows when to shoot and when to pass.

Okposo: Another one of the gem’s of the rebuild, Okposo showed his ability to break a game open with his skill and power last season. After another year of experience, Okposo will be coming to Islanders camp ready to prove he is the best forward on the Islanders, and he may very well do so. Gifted with a large frame, good skating, and a great shot, Okposo will be a member of the rebuild for a long time. After last year’s offensive production and demonstration of skill, it is safe to say the Islanders will be relying on him to score at least 25 goals this season. Anything less would be somewhat of a disappointment, and anything more would show he is really growing exceptionally well. With a place on the first power play unit all but secured next to Tavares, Weight, Bailey, and Streit, it is safe to say he will be given plenty of opportunity to put up big points.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for the update on lines three and four. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to email them to me at IslesNet@Gmail.Com.

-Justin M.

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Still Some Useful Pieces on the Market

By Glen Miller

Even though things have slowed down terribly in the hockey world as far as UFA signings and trades go, it only takes a spark to set off some genuine interest again. I’m sure that most of us have talked of our favorite team’s off-seasons to date ad nauseam. We all have a good idea of where our team is strong and where it is weak. For me at least, there have been a couple of recent moves that have made available a couple of potentially useful players for a team like the New York Rangers and this has sparked my interest.

Look, I try very hard to be a realist. I understand that the Rangers are not a strong Stanley Cup contender. As the roster is currently constituted, the Rangers are likely going to be in a battle with the New Jersey Devils for 3rd place in the Atlantic. Given the strength of the Eastern Conference, that may translate to a 5th or 6th seed at best. Clearly Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are both better than the Rangers at this point in time. Looking at the Rangers available cap space, their roster and the names of the players available I don’t see any quick-fix additions that would turn this squad into anything more than what they are now.

However, come playoff time, almost anything can happen. If a team with the stellar goaltending that the Rangers have gets hot at the right time, they can certainly go deep into the playoffs. While there may not be anyone available to the Rangers right now to help us finish in the upper echelon of the East, there are a couple of players that could help increase our chances of making the playoffs and potentially going deep into them.

As presently constructed, the Rangers roster has two glaring holes to me; Center and Defense. Chris Drury has never been a number 1 Center and is probably better off as either the #2 or as a Wing on a scoring line. Brandon Dubinsky may not have the top-shelf offensive skill to be a true #1 either. He’s a gamer and will do anything to help the team succeed though so he could fill in as a #1. Conceivably, rookie Artem Anisimov could develop into a more ideal top pivot but it would be expecting a lot for him to perform at that level this year. Certainly the need for an experienced, offensive-minded pivot does exist on this roster.

On Defense, the Rangers have 2 vacancies among their top 6 after letting both Derek Morris and Paul Mara exit via free agency. Last year’s Hobey Baker award winner, Matt Gilroy, is expected to fill one of those slots. The other slot will be filled from a pool of candidates that include: Bobby Sanguineti, Michael Del Zotto, Michael Sauer, Corey Potter, or Iikka Heikinen. There are several good prospects on this list and Gilroy looked good at the prospect camp but remember how poorly Rozsival and Redden played last year. Essentially, the Rangers have only 2 returning defensemen that performed well at the NHL level last season; Marc Staal and Dan Girardi. If Rozsival and/or Redden don’t ramp up their games this season and even if a couple of the rookies step in and perform well, team defense will still be a weakness.

It’s possible that our solution(s) just hit the open market last week as the Tampa Bay Lightning bought out the final 3 years on the contract of C Vinny Prospal and the Carolin Hurricanes did the same with the final year of D Frankie Kaberle. Since both players will receive at least a portion of the salaries in their bough out contracts, they may be amenable to signing short-term, low-cost deals with new clubs.

Prospal, in particular, is an interesting player. He seems to alternate good seasons with bad seasons and if that holds true then he is due for a good year. Regardless of his inconsistencies, Prospal has averaged 0.77 points-per-game in the 4 seasons since the lock-out (91 goals, 160 assists, and 251 points in 325 games). He has also appeared in no fewer than 80 contests in each of the last seven seasons. Prospal’s On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- rating for the last two seasons were -0.75 in 2008-2009 and +0.83 in 2007-2008. The low rating from last year is somewhat scary given how poor the entire team as a whole was. However given his track record, it’s a good possibility Prospal will rebound. Another factor to keep in mind is that Prospal had some of his best seasons playing for Rangers Head Coach Jon Tortorella in Tampa, including the Stanley Cup season. It would seem worth calling Prospal’s agent to see if Vinny would like to set-up for Marian Gaborik next season.

Kaberle might be a tougher sell as he is 35 years old and has had injury problem in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Over that time, Kaberle has missed 109 of a possible 246 games. As recently as 2005-2006 though, Kaberle recorded a line of 6g – 38a – 44pts in 77 games for the Carolina Hurricanes. He has never been a physical player but has been a solid puck mover throughout his career. Given the Rangers hopeful reliance on returns to respectability by Wade Reden and Michal Rozsival and the expected addition of two rookies to the lineup, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a reliable vet like Kaberle around if Sather’s plans/hopes do not come to fruition.

As I stated earlier in this post; neither Prospal nor Kaberle can be expected to carry this team anywhere but either addition could make this team better and could help this squad qualify for the playoffs more easily. Once in the playoffs…….. anything can happen.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

A Disclaimer and an Introduction

By Glen Miller

While conducting research for the Statistical Analysis in the NHL blog which was posted in July, I became acutely interested in the potential of this “science” as it pertains to player evaluation. Statistical Analysis is now fairly prevalent in the baseball world as a number of General Managers either have backgrounds in the field and/or have started departments within their respected front offices dedicated to statistical research.

As I stated in the Statistical Analysis blog, there was far more activity in the NHL in this field than I expected. I mentioned several sites in that post but have since found many more. Included in these other sites are some new “advanced statistics” that I plan on dissecting to see how they play out versus more traditional player evaluation methods.

First off, I’d like to issue a quick disclaimer to the folks reading my posts; I am NOT advocating for statistical analysis to replace traditional scouting methods as the primary tool in player evaluation. I do believe that statistical analysis can become a valuable tool to help augment the traditional methods of player evaluation though.

Statistical analysis IS a science. As of yet, no one has either developed or claimed to have developed, a stat or a formula which will correctly predict or evaluate any player’s value or performance to an accuracy level of 100%. Everyday intelligent people carefully consider and debate the merits of certain stats and their actual relevance to on-ice success. By no means is the “science” perfect; however that doesn’t mean that the research should be dismissed out-of-hand because it doesn’t conform to the more traditional methods of player evaluation. Hockey is a game; the NHL is a business. Operating a successful organization in the NHL (especially in today’s salary cap landscape) requires the willingness to use modern business techniques. Statistical analyses can be one of those techniques.

Statistical analysis is not only about evaluating stats like goals and assists and On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- rating, it’s also about properly managing assets. A lot of Managers seem to just pluck numbers out of the air when it comes to offering contracts to free agents. With the amount of money that we’ve seen thrown around recklessly at free agents it is clear that NHL Managers could use every tool at their disposal to properly value players and determine what they should be paid.

Some old-school hockey fans believe that statistics don’t make winning teams and they are unwilling to even consider the possible value of sabremetrics to the NHL and its teams. They point to team chemistry and heart as intangible elements that go into building a Stanley Cup contender. To that I have to agree whole-heartedly. But just the fact that those qualities are “intangible” and can not be quantified makes the art of building a winning team that much more difficult if you don’t look at some of the advanced statistics as well. Statistical analysis only evaluates the tangible aspects of players and teams and what makes them successful on the ice.

The chances of building a Stanley Cup winning team around 20 nice, hard working guys that all get along is just about nil. Look, the Rangers team of last season reportedly got along famously and liked each other and was willing to go to “battle” for one another. Where exactly did that get them? Booted out of the first round of the playoffs after a lackluster, up-and-down regular season, that’s where.

Don’t get me wrong, chemistry is a key component of on-ice success. Unfortunately there is no book or manual that tells you which players will combine to form the perfect “chemistry” that will lead to success on the ice. It’s a crap shoot and 29 Managers every year get it wrong. Statistical analysis is math and math doesn’t lie; it can only be misinterpreted.

Alright, I guess that was a little longer than I anticipated. I only ask of those that read these pieces to keep an open mind as I will also. I expect that we will find holes and flaws with most, if not all, of the existing “advanced statistics. Though this science is very new to the sport of hockey and is somewhat controversial, I feel that this topic has the ability to inspire a lot of interesting discussion and that’s my main goal here.

That’s it for my disclaimer; now it’s on to the introduction. Today I’d like to introduce an “advanced statistic” referred to as a “Corsi Rating” or a Corsi Number”. I found this stat on BehindtheNet.com. The Corsi Rating or Number is named after current Buffalo Sabres Goaltending Coach, Jim Corsi. Apparently he devised his rating system as an alternative to +/- and the Sabres use it in its evaluation of players. I can’t tell you exactly how long the Sabres have used this rating but the earliest references I have found were from November of 2007 on hockeynumbers.blogspot.com and an October 2008 post on Japersrink.com.

Basically Corsi’s rating is the difference between the number of shots DIRECTED toward the offensive goal versus the number of shots DIRECTED toward the defensive goal while in 5-on-5 skating situations and excluding empty net shots. The key word in that definition is DIRECTED and it includes all shots that are on net, miss the net or are blocked. I would guess that the rationale behind this stat is that the larger the discrepancy between shots directed for and against, the more that team is controlling the play.

Let’s look at the top five skaters with at least 75 games played from 2008-2009 in terms of highest Corsi Rating per 60 minutes of ice time:

David Moss CGY +23.8

Pavel Datsyuk DET +23

Henrik Zetterberg DET +20.1

Alexander Ovechkin WSH +19

Mikael Samuelsson DET +18.9

The interesting thing I notice is that there are 3 Red Wings players in the top 5. In fact 7 of the top 9 are Red Wings. Not surprisingly the Red Wings led the NHL in Shots on Goal during the regular season with an average of 36.2 per game. Washington was second with 33.5 while Calgary was eighth finishing with an average of 32.2 Shots on Goal per game. While Shots on Goal varies some from the criteria of Shots Directed on Goal used by the Corsi rating it still shows to be a good indicator of which teams have players finish with higher Corsi Ratings.

The entire Corsi Rating System is more complex than the simple Corsi Number. According to an article posted on the Irreverent Oiler Fans page on vhockey.blogspot.com, it actually goes into more detail than just the number itself. It also includes information about which part of the net the puck is shot into and how many crossbars or goal posts are hit. I don’t know how the Sabres factor that information into an equation or how that helps them evaluate a player but apparently they do.

I guess if I had to judge the merits of the Corsi Number my first complaint would be that not all shots (whether they end up on net or not) are created equal. Most hockey analysts prefer scoring chances to shots on goal to determine which team controlled the play offensively. Scoring chances are of course, shots or opportunities in which an offensive player has a better than even chance of scoring a goal. They can also account for shots that hit the cross bar or the goal post or just miss the net in some cases. Those shots aren’t recognized as shots on goal but they can still count as quality scoring chances.

Another part of this stat that can be misleading is the fact that it doesn’t take into account the strength of the opponents or the weaknesses of your teammates when used to evaluate individual players. Granted, the idea is that over the course of a full season, all teams will have faced a fairly equal quality of opponents. The problem lies with the players who miss time due to injury or what have you. They may play a much different quality of opponents if they’ve missed a tough or easy stretch of opponents than someone else. This statistic, like most, loses some of its luster unless applied to players who play a minimum number of games which is why I only analyzed players with a minimum of 75 games played.

All-in-all, while I think this stat is better than the traditional +/- figure, I don’t think it is nearly enough in and of itself to properly evaluate the value of an individual player’s contributions. Hockey is a team sport and a player can be affected either positively or negatively by their teammate’s performance too much. I also prefer scoring chances as an indicator of offensive performance better than shots on goal or shots directed toward goal.

That’s it for today folks. Join me next time for another exciting piece breaking down another advanced statistic or comparing players using an advanced statistic. Please let me know your thoughts on the Corsi Number specifically or advanced statistics in general.