New York Hockey Net

Do the Rangers need Nylander?

2009-11-08T11:41:00.002-05:00

Re-visiting a question previously mentioned on Rangers’ posts, would it behoove the Rangers to bring back veteran, play-making Center Michael Nylander? According to Steve Hindle, the Capitals blogger on Hockeybuzz, the team has place Nylander on waivers. This move in and of itself is more complicated than it would seem.

Because of Nylander’s No Movement Clause (NMC), he would have had to have approved this before it could have taken place. This would lead me to believe that there may be a team interested in the services of Nylander that would also interest Nylander. Chances are that no one would claim Nylander because of the hefty cap hit of $4.875 million for each of the next two years. However, it is possible that if the Capitals ran Nylander through re-entry waivers a team would claim him and only be on the hook for half of the cap hit.

Nylander has performed well since going to Grand Rapids of the AHL on a conditioning assignment recording a goal and 6 points in 5 games playing for the Griffins. There were questions about whether or not Nylander was in game shape. His performance in the AHL would seem to indicate that he may be ready to go.

Now let’s assume that Nylander ends up on re-entry waivers; what teams may be interested? Well the team nearest and dearest to our hearts, the Rangers, has certainly had a history with Nylander. We also have a need for a quality playmaking center on the roster. Could the Rangers be a fit?

Two problems exist with bringing Nylander in; the salary cap and the possibility that Nylander’s style wouldn’t fit with the current playing style employed by the Rangers. I believe that if the Rangers decided that Nylander was a realistic option, they could make this move happen.

First off, let’s address the salary cap; according to the website Capgeek.com, the Rangers have approximately $846,000 left in cap space (full season salary). Grabbing Nylander on re-entry would require a commitment of nearly $2.45 million for each of the next 2 years. That means the Rangers would have to trim at least 1.5 million off its current roster.

One move that has been rumored has been a deal with the Ducks that would send F Chris Higgins to Anaheim for C (and former Ranger Todd Marchant. The savings the Rangers would see in that move would be $1.125 this year in cap savings. This leaves us only a few hundred thousand or so away from having the cap space necessary to add Nylander on re-entry. The demotion of another forward or any minor move could realize this savings. Therefore, the cap can be maneuvered to accommodate the addition of Michael Nylander.

Now what about playing style? This was my biggest problem with the possibility of acquiring Nylander when he was possibly available earlier this season. After watching the Rangers and remembering what Nylander’s skill set is, I actually think he could fit in with this group of Rangers. Maybe he doesn’t play a style that would work with a player like Gaborik but maybe he could augment a second scoring line.

Nylander isn’t the type of forward that would ordinarily fit Tort’s aggressive, fore-checking style but then again not all 3 forwards on the ice normally are in on the fore-check. Is it conceivable that adding Nylander to the lineup and putting him with Ryan Callahan and Chris Drury could result in more production from those two players.

It would also be likely that Nylander would benefit the Rangers power play. There is no question that Nylander brings elite playmaking skills that could work well with Gaborik, Kotalik and Del Zotto on the PP.

After last night’s contest against the Flames, the Rangers might be in an even more desperate need for a veteran Center after losing both Chris Drury (concussion) and Brandon Dubinsky (undisclosed injury) indefinitely. Nylander on re-entry might be an appealing option for the Rangers to bridge the gap while Drury and Dubinsky are out.

What do you think Rangers fans; should the Rangers look at bringing Nylander back to Manhattan? Would he fit in with this current Rangers’ roster?

What to Do with Chris Drury?

2009-11-06T01:11:00.001-05:00

Following the 6 game, Eastern Conference semi-final loss to the Buffalo Sabres in the 2006/2007 playoffs, many Rangers fans and NHL followers felt that the Rangers were close to being a serious Stanley Cup contender. After all, they had come within just 7 seconds of winning game 5 and taking a 3 – 2 series lead against the Sabres; a loss which may have proven to have been the difference in the series. The Rangers were almost on their way to the Conference Final, except Sabres forward Chris Drury had come through in the clutch yet again and tied the game with just seconds left. What was lacking in the Rangers lineup that could have propelled them further in the playoffs; how about a proven, clutch playoff performer, someone like………well, someone like Chris Drury?

That’s exactly what Rangers GM Glen Sather thought when he presented Chris Drury with a very rich UFA contract following that season. Drury, who had grown up as a Rangers fan in Connecticut, naturally accepted the offer of a 5 year, $35.25 million contract from the Blue Shirts. Would Drury prove to be a missing piece; a proven playoff performer that could help the Jaromir Jagr/Henrik Lundqvist led Rangers achieve even more playoff success? So far the answer has been a resounding no!!

I was all for the Rangers chasing Drury. Like many, I thought he would be a perfect fit for that team. A veteran player who would fit in well as a complementary player and locker room presence to superstar Jagr and one that would contribute when it mattered most; in the playoffs. Drury, who was approaching 31 years of age, was sure to attract a 3 or 4 year offer. Even though he had never been a top scorer, I felt a $4 million annual salary would be close to enough to get Drury to sign in Manhattan and a fair price to pay for someone that brought his intangibles.

I was SHOCKED when I saw that the Rangers had signed Drury to a 5 year deal that would pay him an average salary (and cap hit) of $7.05 million. That cap hit represented more than 1/8 or 12 percent, of the Rangers available cap space. Drury had been a very solid player but to commit that much of the salary cap to him seemed like a bad idea. And boy was it.

Now in his third season as a Ranger and his second as team captain, Drury is struggling immensely. He currently has 6 points (2 goals, 4 assists) in 16 games; a pace that would work out to a 31 point season if he should play all 82 games. Thirty-one points!!! That works out to just less than 4.5 points per million dollars.

The NHL is now in its 5th season of operating in the world of a salary cap. Teams have had to learn to be more frugal than they could be in years past; teams like the Rangers for example. It is imperative for teams to manage their salary structure responsibly.

Today, the salary cap sits at roughly $56.8 million dollars. Drury still accounts for more than 12.5% of their cap space. He is spending most of his time skating on the 3rd line and killing penalties these days. He has gotten some PP time but has done little with it. It’s a real eye-opener when you hear longtime Ranger play-by-play announcer Sam Rosen constantly point out what a good game Drury has had on the PK.

I realize that I may be beating a dead horse but I still marvel at the fact that we are paying $7.05 million to a checker/penalty killer. That is not an example of good cap management. Drury’s struggles go beyond just a slow start to this season though. In his 2+ seasons in a Ranger uniform, Drury has recorded a line of 49 goals, 71 assists for 120 points in 179 games. Those figures work out to an average of 55 points in an 82 game schedule. Why is Drury underperforming his career numbers so severely?

The answer is he isn’t. Drury’s career line average is: 25 goals – 36 assists – 61 points. As a Ranger, Drury’s line is: 22 goals – 33 assists – 55 points. That’s a bit of a drop-off; 6 points over an 82 game schedule but not as severe as it feels. The reason why Drury seems like he is underperforming is because Glen Sather horribly overpaid for him.

Prior to his arrival on Broadway, Drury had never recorded more than 69 points in a single campaign while playing 7 full seasons in the NHL. Drury was remarkably consistent in his first 7 seasons scoring fewer than 20 goals only once and never scoring less than 44 points in any year of his career.

There was absolutely no evidence that Drury was on the cusp of a sudden explosion in production. He had proven to be a consistent and durable performer; not a game-breaker. His salary pointed to him being a big-time player and a critical offensive contributor. Drury was and is a nice 2nd line player that can contribute in all 3 zones. Sather made a mistake by paying him like a marquee player; a player like the one Sather gambled on this past off-season, Marian Gaborik.

Drury’s salary really hamstrings the Rangers. After a run of 4 games in which they only recorded 5 goals, the Rangers clearly could use some more offensive production. The question is where will it come from? As long as Drury and his salary remain, the Rangers will have no choice but to hope for improved production from the players currently on the roster or in the minors. Sather found a saint in Bob Gainey who was willing to take the contract of Scott Gomez (which may be even worse than that of Chris Drury) off of his hands. He isn’t likely to find another saint. Once again we see clear proof that Sather has messed up this team; hopefully not beyond repair.

Gaborik Returns; Rangers Win

2009-11-02T17:16:00.002-05:00

After a weekend away in Vegas (for my daughter’s showcase softball tournament, not just for fun) and a brief hiatus from the blogosphere, I am ready to return. I can’t think of a better way to return than to do so the day after Gaborik’s triumphant return. Gabby scored the only goal in a 1 – 0 home win against the Boston Bruins in a Sunday afternoon matinee at MSG.

Gaborik had missed the previous 2 games after banging knees with former Ranger Petr Prucha in the Pheonix game. The Rangers lost both contests and in doing so showed why Gaborik is a big key to the Rangers season. With him out of the lineup, the Ranger scored just 3 goals combined while playing two of the NHL’s bottom feeders; the Islanders and the Wild.

Now granted it isn’t as if the Rangers put on an incredible offensive display in Gaborik’s return but his presence in the lineup is crucial to the Rangers’ on-ice success regardless. He is a game-breaker that requires the opponent to account for him whenever he is on the ice. That extra attention can open up the ice for other Rangers. It’s no coincidence that Vinny Prospal is tied for third in assists (14) and tied for 8th in overall scoring (18 points) in the NHL (ironically, he is tied with the Capitals Niklas Backstrom in both categories).

The Rangers are clearly a different and more dangerous team with Gaborik in the lineup. He has had a hand in 38% of the Rangers goals (19 of 50). Without him, there is no one in the Rangers lineup that can pick up the scoring slack. Gaborik literally carries this team offensively.

The one area of the ice that the Rangers don’t need to rely on the efforts of Gaborik is in goal where the Rangers have the King. Lundqvist recorded his first shutout of the season stopping 29 shots in the win. The Rangers, despite an increased focus on offense (where they are currently 7th in goals scored per game, 3.33), are 8th in the league in goals against per game (2.60). Naturally Lundqvist has been the primary reason for the solid defensive standing as he has appeared in all but 2 contests and his .920 save % ranks 4th in the NHL among goalies with 10 or more appearances.

Coming into the season, everyone knew that the two biggest keys to the Rangers season were Gaborik and Lundqvist. If either player suffered a long term injury or underperformed, then the Rangers would likely miss the playoffs. If both can remain in the lineup and stay productive then the team should qualify for the playoffs and have a shot at making some noise while there.

Rangers Victory a Sure Thing Tomorrow? You Bet!!

2009-10-27T18:19:00.003-04:00

Alright Isles fans, this site has been way too quiet for my taste. It’s time to stir up some action. Tomorrow, you guys have the unfortunate luck to have to play us. I hope you like only having 1 win to date because that’s what you’ll have after tomorrow’s game.

I’m curious, who are you starting in goal; Rolo the “extremely old” or Martin “I wish I were anywhere but here” Biron? Either way, with the Rangers scoring goals in bunches like they are then neither guy has much of a chance.

I am excited that I’ll get a good look at the future of the Isles. Tavares has gotten off to a nice start for an 18 year-old kid. He’d be a legit Calder candidate if it wasn’t for Michael Del Zotto. Have you noticed that DZ has 12 points in 12 games? Maybe he won’t keep that pace up for the whole season but still, that’s an awesome accomplishment for a 19 year-old kid.

It’s also good to see a guy like Matt Moulson get a real shot in the NHL. Moulson had a strong college career but never got a chance with the Kings to show his offensive abilities. On the Island, he is getting a chance to skate with Tavares on the #1 line and he has produced so far.

Truthfully, I do feel kind of bad for the Islanders. I believe the team already has 4 or 5 OT losses? It seems as if you guys are in games but can’t find a way to put those games away. Several times already the opponent has come from behind in the third period and beaten you in OT or in the shootout. Even your 1 win was the result of a shootout goal by Tavares after Carolina came from 2 down in the 3rd.

Take heart Isles fans; I do think that you’re on the right track. It may take a couple more years of adding talent before you sniff the playoffs again but things are getting better. Don’t feel too bad though; the Rangers will represent New York well come playoff time.

Oh by the way, what’s this garbage I’ve read about Gordon getting canned and replaced by Peter Laviolette. Didn’t you guys go down this road once already? Why can a coach that is getting his young charges to play hard and is keeping them competitive? I think that would be a bad move. Hopefully it’s just rumor and you guys will stick with Gordon. I think he’s earned the right to stay behind the bench for the Islanders; although that could be seen as more of a punishment than a reward. Oh well, enjoy the game tomorrow Isles fans, I know I will.

Rangers Back on Winning Road

2009-10-27T18:01:00.001-04:00

After 3 consecutive losses and having only recorded 1 point out of a possible 6, it was nice to get back into the win column last night against a surprisingly tough Phoenix squad. Marian Gaborik again showed why he is easily worth $7.5 million annually when he is healthy by potting 2 goals (#’s 9 and 10 for the season) and also assisting on Vinny Prospal’s 4th goal of the season. Gaborik is now tied for the league lead in goals with the Kings’ Anze Kopitar.

Prospal finished with a goal and two assists giving him 16 points in 12 games this season. New line mate Enver Lisin also scored a goal and an assist against his former team and now has 8 points on the young season (5 in his last 5 contests).

The Rangers jumped out to a 4 – 0 lead mid-way into the second period on goals by Artem Anisimov, Prospal and 2 by Gaborik before the Coyotes doused the Rangers momentum by replacing Ilya Bryzgalov in net with former Ranger farm hand Jason Labarbara. The Coyotes scored 2 goals in the 2nd period including a short-handed effort by Vernon Fiddler just before the end of the frame.

Once again the Rangers came out on fire only to see their opponents take the momentum away from them in period 2. The Coyotes out shot the Rangers for the game 32 – 24 even though Lundqvist wasn’t challenged much besides the two goals. He was still sharp in winning his 7th decision on the season.

Let’s face it Rangers fans, we knew this team was going to be up and down all season. How could they not be when they are breaking in two rookie defensemen and a bunch of new players up front? There are going to be games like the San Jose contest where they are just blown out of the water by a good team working hard and skating fast. They are going to blow games, like the one in Montreal, from time to time. As long as this team keeps working hard and the new players show improvement then we have to be happy.

Clearly this team has improved in a big way offensively. Last season this squad would be buzzing about but couldn’t bury the puck in the net. This year’s edition has some real skill. Gaborik is just tremendous and Prospal has proven to be a steal so far. Lisin is flashing the skill that excites scouts and fans alike and if he can continue to improve in the other facets of the game then the Lisin-for-Korpikoski trade will be a huge win for New York.

The one thing that I find truly amazing is the play of Del Zotto. Not only is this kid maintaining his point-per-game production but he is getting more comfortable and decisive in the defensive zone. He is really starting to step up and play the man more in the defensive zone. His instincts are plain to see. For a kid drafted just a year ago to step right into the responsibility he has earned so far and produce like this is amazing to me. After all, we aren’t talking about a kid like Tavares or Crosby here; someone drafted #1 overall with undeniable gifts. Del Zotto was taken 20th overall in 2008. Half of the players drafted around that spot never make an impact in the NHL much less do so at 19. If he continues his level of play and doesn’t win the Calder it will be because of blatant ignorance on the part of the voters.

One concern was a possible knee-on-knee collision to Gaborik with 5 minutes or so remaining in the game. He has already come out and said that it isn’t “major” and has nothing to do with the groin or hip problems he’s had previously. Hopefully that is the case and Gaborik will be on the ice tomorrow against the Isles. Just in case, the Blue Shirts called F P.A. Parenteau up from Hartford.

This Rangers team personifies why it is important for fans, coaches and players to never get too high when things are going well or too low when things aren’t. This team can go from one extreme to the other within a single game. Even still, there sure appears to be enough talent that with Lundqvist in net, that this should be a playoff team.

Rangers Bring in Dandenault for a Look

2009-10-21T14:30:00.001-04:00

Ever since Alexei Semenov backed out of an agreement with the Rangers to be their 7th defenseman, it was thought that the team would pursue another veteran blue liner to fill that role; whether by trade or free agency. Salary cap restrictions and the lack of quality UFA’s on the market made it a difficult task for Glen Sather and his staff to find the right kind of fit for that spot.

A 7th defenseman on this Rangers team has to be prepared to not play for long stretches when things are going well but also be ready to step in at a moment’s notice if an injury occurs or if one of the top 6 guys is not playing well. With the Rangers committed to playing two rookies as much as possible, the large salary obligations to Michal Rozsival and Wade Redden and the presence of young, talented blue liners Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, there would be no guaranteed ice time for a 7th guy.

Carrying just 6 defensemen can be dangerous though; especially when you have two rookies in this year’s lineup and two expensive veterans coming off of dismal showings last season. John Tortorella is not the type of coach to sit idly by and watch as veterans under-perform. He’d like to have an experienced and dependable option available in the event that he wants to bench a struggling defenseman.

Enter Mathieu Dandenault, a veteran of 13 NHL campaigns with Montreal and Detroit and who was cut loose by San Jose after failing to make their squad as a training camp invite. Dandenault has a career line of 68 g -135 a – 203 pts and is a +42 in 868 NHL contests. The 6’1” 210 Dandenault has played both defense and forward in his career and has his name etched on the Stanley Cup 3 times thanks to his time with the Red Wings.

Dandenault isn’t the big, physical presence that maybe Tortorella would have liked but he is a solid veteran guy who has been a part winning programs in the past. If he proves himself capable of contributing while skating with the Hartford Wolf Pack, the Rangers will sign him to a prorated, 1 year deal worth somewhere around the league minimum in all likelihood. If his play isn’t up to snuff then they simply release him from his tryout and move on; a perfect no-lose scenario.

I like this addition for the Rangers. Dandenault is a good team guy who has filled in at both defense and forward during his lengthy career showing his willingness to compete and do whatever is asked of him. He’s been a gritty competitor throughout his career, not afraid to mix it up with the opposition. The fact that he brings some Stanley Cup winning experience makes it an even nicer addition potentially.

This is they type of under-the-radar move that every playoff team must make to ensure they have the necessary depth come playoff time. With his experience, Dandenault is a nice fallback option in the event of an injury to or substandard performance by any of the top six.

The King of New York

2009-10-15T17:41:00.001-04:00

Sounds like a great title for a movie doesn’t it? Oh wait, someone has already used it? Darn! Regardless, it is an appropriate title for our King Henrik. Up until last night’s meeting with an improving Kings club, the King hadn’t been asked to win a game virtually all on his own. The Rangers had played their style to a tee and had consistently pressured the opposition into mistakes and had taken advantage of those mistakes. Only for small stretches has Hank been asked to be the King and save the Rangers collective bacon.

Last night, however, was very different. It had always been in the back of my mind that the style of play that the Rangers were employing was not unique to John Tortorella or Manhattan. Other teams could come in with an aggressive fore check and pressure our blue line to the point where they couldn’t execute the “first pass” out of the zone and start our offensive rush. That’s exactly what the Kings did last night.

Look, after years of mediocrity and rebuilding, the Kings look like a playoff team. I picked them to qualify this season in my Western Conference predictions in fact. Ryan Smyth has been stellar and seems to have pushed the ultra-talented Anze Kopitar to the next level of his development. Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson are right now what I hope Del Zotto and Gilroy are in another year or two.

The key to the early season success of the Kings has been the solid play of Jonathan Quick in net. He hasn’t been excellent but with the Kings scoring goals for him a solid performance was all that was necessary to propel the Kings to a 4 game winning streak, (coming into last night) following their opening night disaster against Phoenix.

This wasn’t going to be an easy game but the Rangers came out pretty strong in period 1 recording two PP goals in the first period. Vinny Prospal cashed in both, the first of which was his 200th NHL goal. The Kings trailed going into period 2 by a score of 2 – 1.

Brian Boyle kicked off the scoring in the second with a goal, his first as a Ranger, against the team that dealt him this past off-season. That’s when the Kings took control of the game. The Kings dominated the puck and controlled the play for virtually the rest of the game and it was during this time that the King was at his best. New York was out shot for the game 36 – 21 and by an especially wide margin in the 2nd and 3rd periods (24 – 12). Lundqvist was game for every chance in those two periods with the exception of a PPG scored by Michal Handzus in which a shot from the point by Jack Johnson hit Handzus’ body and deflected by the King for a goal.

Lundqvist made several great saves including a point blank opportunity of a rebound chance by Kopitar from about 12 feet out. Marian Gaborik closed out the scoring with a beautiful wrister into the top corner of the net against Kings’ goalie Erik Ersberg (more on that shortly).

All-in-all, the Rangers were not the better team but they were able to dig this one out. That’s great news for Rangers fans; if you can win against a good team when you are not playing your best hockey then that is something to be proud of.

Other Impressions:

Marian Gaborik - I never saw a lot of Marian Gaborik when he played in Minny. Now that I see him in every game, I’ve concluded that he reminds me so much of Jaromir Jagr; especially in the season right after the lockout in which Jagr set a team record with 54 goals to go along with 123 points.

Every time Gabby has the puck in the offensive zone I think he can score. That is a tremendous threat to have on your side; one that only a few teams can boast. That wrist shot was incredible. He received a pass/clearing attempt from Prospal near the Kings’ blue line and calmly skate into the offensive zone. The Kings d-man (Doughty?) skated over forcing Gaborik to the left wing face-off circle where Gabby let loose of a laser shot to the far corner that beat Ersberg over his shoulder before he could react. I’m not even sure the defenseman realized the shot had been let go until it was already in the net.

The great thing about Gaborik’s performance to date is that all 6 of his goals have come in the third period when they are most needed. He has been absolutely clutch this season. We know that when we need a goal, Gaborik is definitely capable of delivering and that breeds confidence amongst the rest of the players.

Another aspect to like about Gabby is his unselfishness. He had an opportunity to shoot the puck into the empty net late in the game and pad his stats but instead tried a cross-ice feed to Prospal in an attempt to get Prospal the hat-trick. Little things like that go a long way in a dressing room. It would certainly appear as if Gabby and his teammates are having fun and the chemistry seems to be there.

Michael Del Zotto – I keep waiting for the scoring pace to wane some but through 7, the 19 year-old rookie has 7 points (2 goals, 5 assists) and is a +2. Those are great numbers for any defensemen at this stage much less a 19 year-old kid. I doubt he can keep up this torrid pace but if he can even crack 50 points this year with a + rating it will be an accomplishment worthy of serious Calder Trophy consideration.

Ales Kotalik – This guy keeps producing points on a highly effective PP (converting at a 26.5% clip in 34 chances) as 6 of his 7 points have been on the PP. I didn’t like the signing when it was announced but Kotalik is doing loads to change my mind. With the play of Del Zotto and Kotalik on the PP points, the Rangers PP looks immensely better than the clueless rabble that the Rangers iced last year.

Protect the goalie please – Over the last two contests, I’ve seen opposing forwards run into (whether intentional or not is irrelevant) Lundqvist with little or no reaction from the Rangers. I don’t expect someone to just start beating an opposing player in this situation but at least get the dude off of our goalie and give him a good shove. Say something! We have to keep the King healthy and in good shape. That won’t happen if he keeps getting run into like that.

Face-offs – Before looking up the numbers, I really expected there to be a larger disparity between face-offs won and lost for the Rangers. It seemed to me as if the Rangers were being beaten consistently and at key times. After a quick review though, it isn’t good but not as bad as I had originally thought. Here is a list of the Rangers 5 face-off guys:

Prospal 53%
Dubinsky 52%
Boyle 48%
Drury 48%
Anisimov 34%

Those numbers, especially Anisimov’s is too low. I may be nitpicking here but I believe that face-off win % is an undervalued stat in the NHL. If Anisimov doesn’t improve then I would suspect Torts would do something different with his line. You can’t have a C taking anywhere from 6 – 12 draws per game when he’s losing 2/3 of them.

After 7 games and a 6 – 1 record about all anyone can do is nitpick. The Rangers have won games a number of different ways. They’ve now won when they were severely outplayed, they’ve won with offense and they’ve won with the King coming to the rescue. All hail the King.

The Rangers Best Performance to Date

2009-10-11T21:10:00.002-04:00

The Rangers entered Sunday’s matinee contest against the Anaheim Ducks feeling pretty good about themselves. After all, they were riding a 3 game winning streak and had gotten the hoped for offensive production from FA additions Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal. Plus they were catching the Ducks on the back end of two games in two nights.

The Rangers would have to be careful however. Steve Valiquette was making his first appearance of the young season and the Ducks showed some tremendous fortitude coming back from a 2 – 0 deficit against the Flyers; getting 2 late goals from Teemu Selanne in the final 6:47 and finally winning in a shootout. The victory was all the more impressive given it came on the road against one of the premier teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Rangers game plan was pretty obvious; work the puck in deep and work over the Ducks defense. The longer the Rangers could pressure the Ducks in their defensive zone, the more likely they would wear down the Ducks and come out on top.

The team executed their game plan to a tee, outshooting the Ducks 13 – 1 in the first period. In fact, using the Corsi Rating, the Rangers directed 29 shots toward the Ducks net while the Ducks only directed 4 shots toward the Rangers net. The Rangers finished with an astonishing +25 Corsi Rating in the 1st period. MSG color analyst Joe Micheletti even referred to the 1st period as, and allow me to paraphrase, the finest period of Rangers hockey in quite some time.

Not surprisingly the Ducks looked flat and sluggish in the first. The Rangers seemed to be a step ahead for the entire period. But the Ducks showed their true colors by playing a much better second period. The shot count at the end of 2: Rangers 24 – Ducks 12. The score at the end of 2: Rangers 0 – Ducks 0.

This is where I started to get nervy. After dominating so much in the first and seeing a number of quality chances turned away by Ducks goalie J.S. Giguere, there was a palpable fear that the Ducks would re-create the magic from the night before. Fortunately for the Rangers, Ales Kotalik finally cashed in on the PP at the 2:14 mark. Kotalik finished off a spiffy passing play begun by Gaborik who fed Del Zotto on the left point. Del Zotto then faked a shot before passing the puck to Kotalik at the left circle. Kotalik fired the puck scoring the game’s first goal.

The game went back-and-forth with the score remaining 1 – 0 in favor of New York. At the 11:57 mark, Evgeni Artyukin took a double minor for high sticking Rangers Defenseman Marc Staal. After the Ducks killed off the first 2:25 seconds, rookie Artem Anisimov scored his first career NHL capping off a nifty passing play. Avery skated in behind the net in pursuit of the puck. He beat a Ducks defender and fed Vinny Prospal on the left wing side of the net. Prospal then shot a perfect pass to Anisimov in front of the cage and the rookie wasted no time firing off a perfect shot to stake the Rangers to a 2 – 0 lead.

Things got a bit dicey as Dubinsky took a double minor of his own at the 17:36 mark. Dubinsky was after a puck along the right wing boards when he tried to jump by Ducks defenseman Ryan Whitney. As he did, he was dragging his stick behind him and as he tried to raise his stick to get it over Whitney, he clipped the defender in the face. The stage was set if the Ducks were going to launch a second consecutive come-from-behind win. The Rangers would have none of that however.

Dan Girardi iced the game with a length of the ice shot resulting in a short-handed, empty-net goal. It was Girardi’s first of the year and capped off one of the best 60 minute performances I’ve seen of the Rangers in quite some time.

Here are some of the other things I noticed in this game:

Vinny Prospal – Prospal continues to impress; not only with his skill and savvy offensively but with his guts and determination. He engaged in quite the physical battle with Ducks C Saku Koivu. For a guy that doesn’t have a reputation as being a physical player, Prospal showed that he doesn’t lack in the guts department.

Michal Rozsival - After the 3rd period benching against the Capitals, Rozsival bounced back with a much better performance overall. He seemed more decisive with the puck and worked harder in the defensive zone.

Wade Redden – Maybe the best thing that can be said about Redden is that he has gone nearly unnoticed on the ice. Too often last season he was being noticed a lot, mainly because he was coughing the puck up or because he was being outmuscled on the puck. This season he has been much quieter; a sign that he isn’t losing those one-on-one battles and has made better decisions with the puck. His play is critical this season as he needs to serve as a mentor for rookies Matt Gilroy and Del Zotto. Redden also just missed his first goal of the season when his shot from the point deflected off Giguere and then hit the post in the third period.

Ales Kotalik – I won’t make a definitive “I was wrong,” statement about Kotalik….yet. Some of you may remember that I was very critical of the signing after it was announced. So far, I can’t argue with the production Kotalik has provided. Through 5 games Kotalik has come through with 3 goals and an assist. Two of his markers have been on the power play. To date, the Rangers PP is converting at a 20% clip (5 for 25). Even better, the Rangers have scored all 5 of their PPG in their last 16 attempts (31.3%). Some of that success can be attributed to the addition of Kotalik.

Steve Valiquette – Vally wasn’t severely tested in his 2009/2010 debut but was solid nonetheless. He stopped all 18 shots in recording his 4th career shutout. Tortorella will feel much better about resting Lundqvist if Vally can keep playing at this level.

Sean Avery – Has there ever been a player who needed a team as much as the team needed the player. Despite a 3 – 1 record to start minus Avery, the Rangers record with Avery in the lineup has been so much better than without him. Today he recorded an assist and maybe more importantly didn’t take any penalties while drawing a roughing call against Ryan Whitney that resulted in the Rangers first goal. He also finished tied for second on the Rangers with 5 hits.

Brandon Dubinsky – Whether it’s because he is trying to prove he is worth the money and the holdout or maybe he is invigorated playing with skilled players like Prospal and Gaborik, Brandon Dubinsky is playing like a much different a better player this year. He is not hesitating taking the puck hard to the net. In his first two years in those spots he would have looked to pass the puck off but not now. He is maintaining his aggressiveness while keeping his emotions in check. We’ll see if he can keep up this performance for the entire year but if he does then the Rangers have their #1 Center.
It’s only 5 games into the new season and the memories of last year’s hot start and subsequent disappointing inconsistencies still haunt me. I’m not predicting great things for this incarnation of the New York Rangers but I am very encouraged by what I am seeing. The young players are stepping up and playing well which bodes well for future Rangers’ teams. Gaborik, Kotalik and Prospal are doing what was expected; producing offensively. We’ll see where they are at after 82 games but right now they look darn good.

Blue Shirts Show Resiliency in Win Over Caps

2009-10-09T17:59:00.001-04:00

When Henrik Lundqvist allowed a seemingly harmless dump-in from center ice squirt by him for the tying goal early in the third period yesterday my mouth literally hung open with shock. Was this the turning point in what had been a solid effort against a very good Caps team? Were we going to lose a game because our heroic goalie allowed a silky, soft goal?

My fears began to be realized when the “lucky” goal scorer who beat Lundqvist with a dump-in, Niklas Backstrom, scored a power play goal to put the Capitals up 3 – 2 in the third period. A solid all-around effort which bordered on sensational at times in the second period was going to be wasted all because our favorite Ranger made a terrible mistake. Or was it?

Maybe in years past the Rangers would have folded under those unfortunate circumstances but not last night. Marian Gaborik tied the score just seconds after Backstrom put the Caps up. Gaborik then recorded what would ultimately be the game winner a couple of minutes later on a Rangers PP.

Neither of Gaborik’s goals were of the awe-inspiring variety. In fact, Caps goalie Jose Theodore probably should have stopped both shots. That’s the thing with premier goal scorers; the puck tends to find them and those players find a way to put the puck in the net. An “ugly” goal counts the same as a highlight reel goal and both of Gaborik’s goals were closer to “ugly” than they were to highlight reel. Both goals were definitely “goal scorer’s” goals.

That’s the type of production the Rangers paid for and desperately need from their star sniper. It’s nice to know that when you are a goal down you have a guy that can tie the score at any time, from nearly anywhere. When Gaborik is going, you are almost never out of a game until the final horn goes.

I actually sat down last night with pen and paper and took some notes during last night’s game. Here are a few of the things that I noticed in last nights contest:

Marian Gaborik: Looked at times as if he was fighting the puck. Apart from a wrap around attempt and then subsequently a juicy rebound attempt (both of which were stopped by Theodore) Gaborik had trouble with puck possession.

On a second period power play, Gabby took too much on himself trying to skate by three defenders only to have the puck stripped. Use your line mates Marian!
Clutch goal to tie the game in the third just seconds after Caps break the tie. Skated in on a mini-rush and beat Theodore 5-hole.

Ryan Callahan: Great work on the penalty kill in the second period. Just missed on a breakaway opportunity when the defender pushed him past the net and not allowing him to get a shot off. Tremendous stick work again stripping AO of the puck and skating out on a breakaway. Scores on a sweet back-hand beating Theo 5-hole.

Lisin-Kotalik-Anisimov: Some great shifts in the middle period by these guys. Kotalik lifted a back-hand that got over Theo after some nice passing in the offensive zone.

Anisimov: Got caught too high in the D zone on the Semin goal. Left a seam for Pothier to get the puck cross-ice for Semin who planted the puck. Anisimov needed to collapse a little lower and keep his stick on the ice.

Michal Rozsival: Giveaways, giveaways, giveaways!!!! Lazy passes, not decisive. Confidence issue? Took a holding call after being out-hustled and out-muscled by Caps F Chris Clark at the 6:45 mark of the 2nd. On the bench for much of the third.

Matt Gilroy: Still pushed off the puck too easily at times. Unbelievable how often and how deep he’ll carry the puck into the offensive zone. He looks more like a rover than a defenseman. Getting some critical PK time here in the third period; great learning experience under the gun.

All-in-all, this was a gutsy effort by the Rangers. They came from behind on two occasions, Lundqvist gave up the type of goal that gives goalies nightmares and the Rangers gave the Capitals 9 power plays and still came out on top in the end; this coming against a team the really lambasted us (despite going to 7 games) in the playoffs last year. Not bad, not bad at all.

First Impression of the New Look Rangers

2009-10-08T14:15:00.001-04:00

Three games into the new season and the Rangers find themselves 2 – 1 – 0 heading into a big early season match-up with the team that knocked us out of last years postseason. I will be watching intently to see how the new Rangers players and the Torts’ style of play compare to the offensive juggernaut that is the Capitals. In last year’s playoffs, the Capitals dominated the Rangers and only the play of Lundqvist and a couple of timely goals got us to seven games. That series is what prompted some of the off-season additions to the Rangers lineup as the team struggled to generate anything offensively.

Before tonight’s game, I’d like to look back at the first three contests and offer up my impressions on the team so far. Three games is a very small sample size and won’t necessarily predict the future performances of either the players or the team but it is enough to give us an idea of what kind of team we have here and whether the squad is moving in the right direction.

The kids on D: We expected the young guys on the blue line to struggle with their play in the defensive zone; they are just kids after all. Matt Gilroy and Michael Del Zotto didn’t earn roster spots because of their stellar defensive play. They earned spots because they can bring offense to a team sorely lacking it last year.

To date, the kids haven’t disappointed; they’ve struggled at times in their own zone just like everyone expected. They’ve lost some one-on-one battles for possession of the puck. But they’ve also scored goals. The two rookies have combined for 3 goals through 3 games including 2 game winners and a PP goal among them.

I’m willing to live with some of the defensive miscues as long as they can produce offensively like that and also as long as they show improvement in their own end. I’m pretty sure Torts will be drilling them all season on that score.

Goaltending: We already know we’ve got one of the best between the pipes in the “King”. We also know with the style of play Torts wants to implement and the inexperience on D, the “King” was going to have to be on top of his game all of the time for us to be a playoff team.

So far, he hasn’t disappointed either. He was real strong in the home opener against Ottawa and made several quality stops in the Pittsburgh and New Jersey games that kept us in the game. He hasn’t had to “steal” a game yet but that chance might come tonight when the high-octane Capitals play host to the Rangers.

Improved offensive production: I’ve already touched on the kids’ contributions but the Rangers, after finishing just above the Islanders in goals scored last season in the Eastern Conference, needed big-money newcomer Marian Gaborik to prove he’s healthy and to start producing points quickly. Through three he has 4 points (2 goals and 2 assists) and he looks dynamic on the ice.

Fellow newcomers Vinny Prospal and Christopher Higgins have also done a good job of creating chances. Higgins hasn’t been rewarded much for his efforts but his time should come if he continues to play as well as he has. Prospal has a goal and two assists so far and the top line of Dubinsky centering Gaborik and Prospal has clicked to the tune of 5 goals and 11 points so far.

The Rangers really need more production from the third line of Anisimov, Kotalik and Lisin as they have combined to score just 1 goal (Kotalik on the PP). These three have the skill to be key contributors offensively for the Blue Shirts. Now it’s time for them to produce.

Turning the Power Play into an advantage instead of a disadvantage: The Rangers flat out sucked last year on the power play converting at a paltry 13.9% clip. Not only did the team finish next to last in power play efficiency they also gave up the second most short-handed goals (14) in the entire league.

To put it bluntly, I used to hope that the referee wouldn’t call a penalty against the opponent because I didn’t want to see the putrid Rangers power play. I was afraid that the Rangers would just upset me by giving up a shorty instead of converting themselves. Last season, the Rangers PPG for versus SHGA ratio was 48 – 14. That’s a +34 goal differential. The league average was nearly +57. Only Columbus had a worse differential finishing +29.

So far, the Rangers have converted 2 of 15 chances; which computes to a 13.3% success rate. That’s even worse than last year. Of course three games isn’t enough to use success rate as a useful statistic. At this point the power play does look better creating chances for and limiting chances against. Del Zotto clearly will be a force on the PP while Ales Kotalik and his hard shot are a welcome sight after seeing so many shots passed on by Rangers point men last season. All signs are at least encouraging on the power play.

I like the way the team looks so far. They will be a lot more exciting than past Rangers squads. The high pressure attack will surely create more scoring chances; both for and against. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that there will be times when a rookie screws up or a vet makes a bone-head play or maybe Gaborik gets hurt. I can deal with that. As long as I’m seeing a commitment to some of the younger guys and as long as the up tempo game yields more goals for us. With Lundqvist in net I’m confident that we’ll have a good year if we can just score more goals.

Follow me on twitter tonight as I post updates throughout tonights contest. “Gkmkiller”

Trent Hunter's Tale and the Hunter Hate Debate

2009-10-08T13:33:00.003-04:00

In the 2001-2002 Islanders so-called “Renaissance” season, a rookie by the name of Trent Hunter was in Bridgeport breaking former Bridgeport records and establishing himself as a good prospect coming up through the Islanders system. Ironically enough, the New York Islanders did not draft Hunter. He was actually drafted in the sixth round, 150^th overall, in the 1998 NHL Entry Draft by the previously named Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. Less than two years later, general manager Mike Milbury saw something that he liked in Hunter, and he struck a deal for Hunter that only cost the Islanders a fourth-round pick in the 2000 NHL Entry Draft.

Although he appeared during the 2001-2002 playoffs for the Islanders, as well as eight games in 2002-2003 for the Islanders, Hunter’s true rookie season did not come until the 2003-2004 season, and he broke into the NHL in storm-like fashion. After compiling a team-high 25 goals (tied with Mariusz Czerkawski), 26 assists, and a team-high of 51 points (tied with Oleg Kvasha…this is your cue to laugh), Trent Hunter finished third in voting for the Calder Trophy for Rookie of the Year (ironically, again, behind Andrew Raycroft who played for the Bruins at the time).

Unfortunately for a developing player like Trent Hunter, the NHL went into a yearlong lockout immediately following his rookie campaign. For a player who had just had a highly successful season, it was very unfortunate for furthering his development.

The 2005-2006 season would be the first season back from the lockout, and Hunter’s second full season in the NHL. Although not as effective as his rookie season, Trent Hunter still managed to put up 16 goals and 19 assists for 35 points. Since that season, Trent’s numbers are as followed:

2006-2007: 77 GP, 20 Goals, 15 Assists, 35 Points, 22 PIM

2007-2008: 82 GP, 12 Goals, 29 Assists, 41 Points, 43 PIM

2008-2009: 55GP, 14 Goals, 17 Assists, 31 Points, 41 PIM

For a player who had showed such a tremendous amount of promise in the American Hockey League, these numbers can be considered somewhat subpar. However, it has become visible that since the changeover from the old-style National Hockey League play to what many call the “New-NHL,” Hunter’s lack of speed has been his shortcoming. That does not mean he is ineffective, and this is where I must begin the Hunter Hate Debate.

Almost anytime the name Trent Hunter is mentioned in any Internet article, it seems to me that a majority of the passionate Islanders fan base becomes fired up over his inability to score goals and the fact that he is even playing on the third-line for us. The comments range anywhere from asking why he is in the NHL, to why he gets as much ice time as he does, to why he isn’t scoring 30 goals. The one thing I don’t understand though is why people overlook everything else he brings to the game.

If you watch every game that Trent Hunter plays in, you will obviously notice a guy that maybe isn’t as fast as those around him, however, you will not notice a guy who lacks effort, who lacks heart, and who lacks the desire to be there. Each and every shift, it is obvious that Hunter doesn’t mind taking the body to make the play, he doesn’t mind going into the corners and fighting for the puck, he doesn’t mind standing in front of the net to take a beating if it means that a goal will come about, and he doesn’t mind getting back into his own defensive zone to make the proper defensive player.

Furthermore, have you ever seen Hunter scrap for the puck along the boards with an opponent? Eight out of ten times, Hunter comes out of the scrap with the puck, and he proceeds to make an intelligent first pass. Rarely do you see a pass leave Hunter’s stick that doesn’t arrive at its desired destination, and you rarely see Hunter just give up the puck without any pressure on him. For a guy that is slower-footed, his intelligence and knowledge of the game truly help him to make up for his shortcomings. This is not something that can be said about several of the other Islanders on the current roster.

Trent Hunter is a third line winger, and he will remain a third-line winger for the better part of his NHL career. If you don’t agree with any of the points I made, or you still feel that he should be contributing more offensively, there are several things you must take into account. First, during the 2006-2007 season and the 2007-2008 season, Hunter was playing under a very defensive-minded, trap-style Ted Nolan that discouraged offense greatly. Under a more wide-open, offensive-minded Gordon, Hunter was doing extremely well offensively until his serious injury that knocked him out for quite a lengthy period of time.

If you still don’t buy into this, then here are some numbers from other third-liners that may strike interest into Hunter’s play:

Jordan Staal, third-line center for the Pittsburgh Penguins:

2008-2009: 82GP, 22 G, 27 A, 49 Points, 37 PIM

Sean Avery, 2007-2008 stats for the New York Rangers:

2007-2008: 57GP, 15G, 18A, 33 Points, 154 PIM

Tomas Holmstrom, third-line winger for the Detroit Red Wings:

2008-2009: 53GP, 14G, 23A, 37P, 38PIM

Two out of the three players on this list were integral members of teams that went to the Stanley Cup Finals last year. To take it further, Staal played appeared in 27 more games than Hunter last season.

I can understand where a small amount of the Trent Hunter scrutiny comes about, however, for a player that is not only a leader on and off the ice, but also a smart and decent contributor on the ice, I cannot understand where the hatred and harsh words come about. Now that it is a new season, I can only hope that Hunter is able to play in Gordon’s wide-open system for 82 games so that we can see just what he can do when he is given the opportunity to perform offensively as well. In one game already this year, he has one goal and one assist, so it’s not a bad start by any means.

Trent Hunter is a good hockey player, and I think he is going to show that this season. Let us lay off the overly harsh words as he finally is on a platform to prove himself. It’s only his fifth season in the NHL, and I think he will silence the large number of Hunter Haters.

What do you think?

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)

Drop the Puck Already!!!

2009-10-02T15:49:00.001-04:00

The day that all Rangers fans have been anxiously awaiting for since the disappointing end to our playoff run last season is finally upon us. Tonight is game 1 of 82 in the 2009-2010 NHL regular season. Not only do we have the excitement of the puck dropping on the new season but what better way to start than for the Rangers to open on the road against the defending Stanley Cup Champs on the night that the Penguins third championship banner will be raised to the rafters at Mellon Arena?

In an interesting twist, Coach Tortorella has said that the Rangers players will observe the ceremony from the visitor’s bench. I’m not sure how common it is for the visiting team in this scenario to do this but Tortorella is adamant that the team will show their respect for the Penguins, the NHL and the sport of hockey with this act.

As is typically the case with Torts, he also has an ulterior motive with this move. He feels that it will be good for the team’s younger players to experience the ceremony to reinforce to them what the goal of the Rangers is; to win the Stanley Cup for themselves. Considering only Chris Drury has had his name etched on a Cup, it wouldn’t hurt for the team’s veteran players to pay attention tonight too.

So, what are the keys for tonight’s contest between the Rangers and the Penguins?

1. Weather the opening storm. It is likely that the Penguins will be flying on a tidal wave of emotion after witnessing their championship banner raised to the rafters. The crowd will certainly be into it. The Rangers need to stay in the game early until some of that opening emotion tapers some. If they go down a goal or two early then that wave may never dissipate and it could be a long night for the Blueshirts.

2. The play of the defense. The Rangers will introduce two rookie defensemen to the fire in Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy. Additionally, Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden and Dan Girardi didn’t perform up to expectations last season. For the Rangers to be competitive both tonight and all season it will be critical for this group to make quick, smart decisions with the puck. Pittsburgh will be attacking in waves and if the Rangers get stuck in their own zone too often tonight then the Penguins will have the advantage.

It is also imperative for this group to quickly secure and then move the puck up ice to start the offensive attack. Torts will also expect this group to be active in jumping into the play offensively. Torts’ strategy already lends itself to creating odd-man against opportunities and poor decision making by the defense will only serve to exasperate this situation.

3. The King will need to be the King. Let’s face it; if Lundqvist plays like anything other than one of the best in the world then the Rangers are in big trouble. He’s already starting off at a disadvantage given the influx of youth on “D” and the aggressive style employed by Tortorella. Henrik is going to see some very good chances against as a result and a substandard effort from Lundqvist will sink the club tonight and any night.

4. The new look offense must generate quality scoring chances. Glen Sather invested heavily into forwards Marian Gaborik and Ales Kotalik (8 years and a total of $46.5 million combined) and they along with Chris Higgins and Enver Lisin, both of whom were acquired via trade, must do their part to improve on last season’s moribund offensive performance. The judgment of whether it was wise or not to invest in Gaborik will begin tonight. A solid performance from him and the other newcomers is necessary for the Rangers to have a chance tonight.

5. The power play must become an advantage rather than a disadvantage for the team. There were times last season where it was more palatable to be a man short than it was to have a man advantage. Not only did the Rangers power play click at a paltry 13.9% clip but they gave up the 2nd most short-handed goals last year (14). Kotalik was brought over in part for his booming shot and its potential on the PP point. Del Zotto at 19, made the team and will likely be entrusted to man a point on one of the PP units primarily due to his offensive skills.

We’ve all already overanalyzed the Rangers off-season; their additions, subtractions and the things we thought they should have done. Predictions were made, some of which were ridiculed. Now its time to finally see whether this team is a Glen Sather masterpiece; or just another flop in a long line of flops. The puck finally drops tonight.

Roster Starting to Take Shape

2009-09-24T18:20:00.002-04:00

The New York Rangers official website is reporting that D Bobby Sanguinetti has been assigned to the team’s AHL affiliate in Hartford. That leaves 7 defensemen on the roster and pretty much concludes the competition for the last roster spots. Those left on the roster and whom have presumably made the final team are; Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, rookies Matt Gilroy and Michael Del Zotto along with veteran Alexei Semenov who is likely to fill the role of 7th defensemen.

The biggest surprise was Del Zotto making the team as a 19 year-old. Coming into training camp it was expected that the 6th spot would go to either Ikka Heikinen or Sanguinetti but Del Zotto impressed Torts with his confidence and aggressiveness in the offensive zone. It’s best that Sanguinetti was sent down instead of being kept as a 7th defenseman since he will get a lot more ice time in Hartford than the 7th defenseman will in New York. Additionally, Torts would not have been comfortable with 3 rookie defensemen on the roster.

Semenov was a pleasant surprise, making the squad after being invited to camp on a tryout. He has been around the NHL for a few seasons with the Sharks, Panthers and Oilers prior to his stop here in Manhattan. Torts told Newsday, “He’s a better passer than I thought and he’s added some jam back there.” Semenov brings some size to the Rangers blueline that they sorely lacked.

With the defense and goaltending roster spots locked up that leaves only a spot or two in the forward ranks up for grabs. Currently the Rangers still have 14 forwards in camp by my count (Enver Lisin, Chris Drury, Christopher Higgins, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Vinny Prrospal, Ales Kotalik, Marian Gaborik, Sean Avery, Brian Boyle, Aaron Voros, Donald Brashear, Artem Anisimov, and Evgeny Grachev). Assuming the Rangers only keep 13 forwards then it looks like Evgeny Grachev would be the most likely to be sent to Hartford.

Grachev has had a great camp to date but Torts seems set on converting the big Russian to Wing from Center. Tort’s was quoted by Newsday saying, “He is not a center, he's a wing. He has just got that prototypical winger body -- all legs, and he’s strong.” I’m sure that we’ll see Grachev up here if an injury hits one of the top 6 forwards.

If Grachev doesn’t make the team then that means that Aaron Voros will. After getting off to a hot start last season playing on a line with Nik Zherdev and Brandon Dubinsky, Voros cooled off considerably and was a frequent healthy scratch after Torts took over. He’s come to camp in great shape and has worked hard to win a spot, even if it is just a 4th line spot.

For better or worse, it looks like the 2009 – 2010 New York Rangers roster is set. This group represents a large departure from last year’s team with likely 12 players suiting up that weren’t in New York to open last season. For that reason alone, this should prove to be an interesting season for the Blue Shirts and their fans.

Patience is a Virtue with de Haan

2009-09-24T10:53:00.001-04:00

We all remember the Islanders draft party vividly. We all remember the days leading up to it, the excruciating hour prior to the pick, the heart wrenching and terribly false Newsday report which had the Islanders all-but-certainly selecting Matt Duchene first overall, and then finally, the euphoric explosion that centered at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum and quickly had its ripple effect across all of Islanders Country once John Tavares was selected by Garth Snow.

What came shortly following that pick was truly unexpected…

Garth Snow and company, who also had the 26^th overall pick thanks to a fine trade earlier in the year with the Ottawa Senators, began their process of going after that “targeted player.” By moving up first from 26^th to 16^th, and then unexpectedly from 16^th to 12^th, the Islanders obviously had their minds set on one specific player who probably wouldn’t have been their much longer. With Zach Kassian, Chris Kreider, Jordan Schroeder, and many other big names still left on the board to help the Islanders weak offense, Garth Snow made a surprise splash by selecting Calvin de Haan, the projected 26^th overall pick.

Why, you ask, is this significant nearly three months after it happened? That answer is simple: Scott Gordon and Garth Snow are apparently thinking about keeping the youngster around for his first NHL season. If the Islanders go through with this, and sign him to an entry-level contract, I will be the first to say I am not a fan of this move. I don’t even think I’d advocate keeping him up here for nine games this season, and guaranteeing the beginning of his contract next year.

The average defenseman in hockey, upon being drafted, takes anywhere from two to five years to develop into a true top-six NHL defenseman. This estimate is obviously taking into account the fact that the kid has the potential and desire to work himself into an NHL defenseman, and isn’t just some early or late-round dud. Furthermore, this estimate does not include above-average star-players who can make the jump into the NHL right away, a la Victor Hedman (yes, I really do think he will be very successful in his first year).

Do not take my antipathy towards keeping him on the NHL roster this year as me disliking the player and/or the selection. On the contrary, I actually think the selection of Calvin de Haan was a rather intelligent pick for the Islanders, and I do think that he has loads of potential as a number two defenseman who can also run the power-play in the future. His above-average speed, his quick-feet, his excellent stick-handling abilities, and his vision for the game will allow him to develop into an excellent new-NHL type defenseman who can play both on both sides of the puck.

The reason I am against him staying on the island is simple. Calvin de Haan truly needs to develop and mature further as a hockey player and athlete before he can begin his development as an NHL player. While he may be of average height for an NHL player, he is still underweight, and not nearly strong enough to be working against some of the most talented, strong, and intelligent hockey players in the world. I just think it would be a shot to his confidence when he is getting run over numerous times.

While he has done well in his preseason games, it must be remembered that he has been going up against players from other teams who also will be sent down to juniors and the American Hockey League. Can you truly envision, at this moment in time, de Haan being able to press and contain Atlantic Division players such as Jordan Staal, Travis Zajac, and Daniel Briere?

Garth Snow, who is finally doing this rebuild in the proper manner, should continue to follow his stringent rules and allow the development to happen naturally. By allowing de Haan to put on muscle and develop his game further with his junior team in Canada this season, both the Islanders and de Haan will benefit in the long term. By rushing him into the NHL immediately, de Haan is going to be faced with a quick adjustment process, a shot to his confidence which is flying high after going 12^th overall, and he may develop bad habits to compensate for his immaturity and lack of strength.

We all know the expectations for the Islanders this season. Calvin de Haan is not going to make the projected 15^th place Islanders into a playoff team. The Islanders might as well allow him to develop properly so that when he steps on the ice next season, he will be truly ready to make a difference.

Wouldn’t you agree?

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)

A Possible Enforcer for the Islanders?

2009-09-23T13:59:00.002-04:00

The Islanders enter into this season once again looking rather young and rather inexperienced. Even more than that, the Islanders enter into the season looking rather vulnerable considering the fact that they lack a true NHL enforcer and instigator on their roster. The lack of an enforcer has been one of the hottest Islander discussions this summer, and today, a solution may have been found, albeit a very unpopular one.

The Ottawa Senators beat writer for the Ottawa Citizen is reporting in today’s sports section that the performances of Senator prospects such as defenseman Erik Karlsson and center Peter Regin is forcing general manager Bryan Murray to keep his eyes open for any cap-clearing and roster-opening moves. One of the major names in play for a trade is none other than the extremely-hated Jarko Ruutu, who has not only become known for his heinous words and ways, but for his ability to put up some numbers as a fourth-line instigator and fighter.

To be fair, Ruutu would be able to find a good role here on the Islanders. He is a pretty decent skater, so it would not cause too much of an issue for him to be able to keep up in Scott Gordon’s up-tempo system, and he has averaged about 7 goals and 9 assists each year throughout his career. Furthermore, the Islanders need for an instigator and fighter would be answered by him, at least for the time being.

On the flipside, bringing in a player like Ruutu would be like bringing a whale into the room. He isn’t always the cleanest player on the ice, and the Islanders have had bad past experiences with a player very similar to him in Chris Simon. Furthermore, he isn’t considered the best all-around locker room guy, even if he is protecting his teammates on the ice. With two years left on his contract at $1.3 million per year (NHLNumbers.Com), it is quite a gamble.

Trade-wise, since this is obviously very important to this decision, I believe it would be relatively inexpensive for the Islanders to acquire him. Considering Ottawa’s desire to open up two roster spots and dump salary, the Islanders may only have to give up a late-round pick (5^th or 6^th) to acquire him.

So, I put the question on the table. Considering he is available, do you think that Garth Snow should try to acquire Jarko Ruutu?

I’ll post my opinion later tonight, as I don’t want to sway anyone one way or the other!

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)

The Less Obvious Key to the Rangers Season

2009-09-22T20:06:00.002-04:00

When asked what the keys to the Rangers upcoming season are, most fans would point to the obvious: the health of both Marian Gaborik and Henrik Lundqvist; a return to form by Michal Rozsival and Wade Redden; and the ability of coach John Tortorella to implement the up-tempo playing style and the high-level conditioning he favors are answers I would expect to hear.

There is another, less obvious key to the potential success of the Rangers this season; the play of Marc Staal. Is it really fair to pin so much on a 22 year-old defenseman who is entering only his 3rd NHL season? As a matter of fact, yes it is.

Staal has already earned high praise from around the league. In fact, The Hockey News just listed Staal in its list of top defenesmen under the age of 25. But he has more to offer and for the Rangers to qualify the postseason this year it would help if Staal became their best defenseman.

The Rangers have invested a lot of money in Michal Rozsival and Wade Redden to be their best defensemen but the results just weren’t there last season. In fact, Redden’s play has been in decline for the last few seasons and there is no guarantee that he will return to the form he displayed before the lockout. Rozsival is a nice player but shouldn’t be anyone’s #1 or #2.

In addition to Rozsival, Redden and Staal, the Rangers will be employing 4th year defenseman Dan Girardi and possibly 2 rookies among their top 6 this year. If you’re looking for someone to step up and become a true #1 the answer may have to be Staal.

Staal has all of the tools to be successful. Torts would agree with that sentiment as he was quoted as saying when asked what areas Staal needs to improve, “Offense and jam. We’re going to give him the opportunity. He’s got all the tools." If Staal can start putting it together this season then the Rangers would not be so reliant on Redden and Rozsival to be their best defensemen.

Gaborik Makes Long Anticipated Rangers Debut

2009-09-22T19:19:00.004-04:00

The main criticism mounted against the Rangers signing of star sniper Marian Gaborik was a result of his inability in recent seasons to stay healthy. Any hockey fan would have told you that the Rangers desperately needed goal scoring after finishing 28th in the league in goals scored and the addition of Gaborik could certainly go a long way towards addressing that problem. The question was would Gaborik be able to stay on the ice enough and produce enough offense to justify the lavish contract Sather had bestowed upon him.

Our worst fears were confirmed when it was reported at the beginning of training camp that Gaborik was held out of certain conditioning exercises because of groin tightness. Groin problems were one of the reasons Gaborik had missed time in the last few seasons and to see him already dealing with the same problem was frightening.

Rangers’ coaches and management did their best to reassure us as fans that holding Gaborik out of some portions of training camp (including the first 4 exhibition games) was done as a precaution. Well, Rangers fans weren’t going to be satisfied until we saw our new marquee name on the ice and healthy. We finally got that last night.

Gaborik’s debut was almost ended before it was fairly begun as less than 30 seconds into the opening period he was smoked on a hit from Red Wings forward Johan Franzen. Gaborik was alright though and showed why Sather felt he was worth the huge investment by assisting on Enver Lisin’s 1st period power play tally making a nice cross-ice, backhand feed to Lisin. He also led all Rangers with 5 shots on goal.

Coach Tortorella’s take on Gabby’s debut was a mixed bag. “I thought he did some good things,” said Torts. The coach followed by saying, “Obviously you can see his talent. He did some good things in our own zone, he did some lousy things in our own zone. I think he’s gonna add a dimension to our team that you need in winning and that’s his creativity and just the dynamic player he is. I’m sure it was hard for him; he wants to be healthy and I thought he gave us some good minutes.”Not exactly a ringing endorsement but those words are still music to the ears of many Rangers fans.

Don’t get me wrong; I know it’s only one exhibition game and Gabby certainly has done nothing to date in training camp to prove the naysayers wrong. However, the important thing is that Gaborik is on the ice contributing. For Gabby to follow through with a relatively injury-free and successful season it’s going to have to start with one game. One game is in the books.

A New Face at Camp

2009-09-22T11:32:00.002-04:00

“Isle Be Watching You” – Garth Snow

Alright, so obviously this is not a direct quote from Garth Snow himself, however, it still does not take away from the fact that there are several under-the-radar names that Garth Snow and Scott Gordon will be keeping their eyes on during this year’s training camp. Although we are already a week into the Islanders training camp, this player is still working his tail off, and still trying to make a name for himself in Saskatoon.

Matt Moulson: A 6’1, 210 pound speedy and skillful left-winger, Matt Moulson excelled in his four years at Cornell University, averaging over 35 points each season he was there. His senior year, as captain, Moulson put up 38 points and was a leader in every aspect of the game.

Although drafted 263^rd overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2003 National Hockey League Entry Draft, Moulson and the Penguins never came to terms on a contract, and he became a free-agent after the three year window had passed. On September 1^st, 2006, Moulson came to terms with the Los Angeles Kings on a three-year, entry-level contract, and he was immediately sent to the Manchester Monarchs of the American Hockey League, as expected.

For all of the 2006-2007 season, and a majority of the 2007-2008 season, Moulson spent his time with Manchester, and he put up some very promising numbers (57 points and 56 points, respectively). When he finally got the call to come up to the big club throughout the 2007-2008 season, Moulson was able to put up 5 goals and 4 assists during his 22 game stint, including a goal in his NHL debut against the San Jose Sharks.

The 2008-2009 season would prove to be more difficult for the left-winger, as he was expecting to earn himself a full time position with the Los Angeles Kings. Although he held reasonable expectations, he failed to live up to his potential and was once again placed in the minors, only to appear in 7 NHL games over the course of the entire season.

On July 1^st, 2009, Matt Moulson became a free agent. On July 6^th, 2009, Moulson opted to sign a one-year, two-way contract with the New York Islanders in hopes of establishing himself as an NHL player on a team that severely lacks offensive firepower.

As he enters this year’s training camp with his second NHL team, Moulson hopes to be able to crack the Islanders line-up. Currently, the Islanders depth chart up the left wing includes Jeff Tambellini, Sean Bergenheim, Blake Comeau, Jon Sim, and Jesse Joensuu, so it is obviously going to be quite a tough road for Moulson. To be fair to him, though, the Islanders depth chart up the left side does not nearly compare to that of the Kings (or many of the other NHL teams), therefore it is a smart career choice for him to take his shot here on Long Island. If anything positive comes out of this, it is that the other left-wingers vying for spots are going to have to work harder to beat out one other player.

Whether or not he cracks the lineup is still to be decided, but one thing is for sure, both Scott and Garth are going to be keeping a close eye on him.

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)

2009-2010 Eastern Conference Predictions

2009-09-21T12:04:00.003-04:00

Each and every year, I decide it is humorous to put myself on the line here (and at the wrath of every single individual), and put forth my predictions for the final standings. While I am only a blogger, I like to think of myself as somewhat of a smart hockey-mind, and I understand that I will be ripped apart by fans of all backgrounds who feel that I betrayed them by not putting their teams at the top of each conference or in the playoffs. That being said, here are my Eastern Conference predictions for the 2009-2010 National Hockey League season.

1.Washington Capitals: This was a tough choice, considering the Boston Bruins and their tremendous season last year, however, I feel that Alexander Ovechkin, Mike Green, and company are ready to come through and finally take it to the top of the Eastern Conference this year. The only question I have for the Capitals is whether or not Jose Theodore or Simeon Varlamov will be the starting goaltender for them.

2. Boston Bruins: The entire Northeast has changed dramatically over the offseason, with the exception to that being the Bruins. The loss of Phil Kessel’s speed and scoring is a big reason that I pushed the Boston Bruins to number two in the conference, and I feel they will have one hell of a year again.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins: The Atlantic Division, besides the Islanders, holds four teams that all can make the playoffs this year, however, the Pittsburgh Penguins seem to be the powerhouse team who has the ability to make it out of the Eastern Conference. The loss of Rob Scuderi, Miroslav Satan, and Peter Sykora are not the end of the Penguins, however, I just believe that both the Bruins and Capitals are better teams all around. They could win it all again this year if everything falls into place.

4. New Jersey Devils: They won the Atlantic Division last year behind stellar goaltending from relatively unknown Scott Clemmensen and a hardcore defensive system, and this year will prove to be the same situation in New Jersey as Jacques Lemaire brings his old-fashioned, defense-first system back to New Jersey. The loss of Brian Gionta and John Madden do not effect the Devils standing too much, and Parise, Zajac, and Clarkson are all ready to have stellar years once again. They will perform well in the regular season, but can Brodeur hold up into the postseason this time around?

5. Philadelphia Flyers: The Pronger trade goes to show you that the Flyers believe they can take it all now. With their true number one defenseman now on the roster, the Flyers are going to have a great year. Another great year can be expected from Jeff Carter, whose offensive output last season was fun to watch. Mike Richards, the captain of this team, will again prove why he is going to be a Selke candidate every year for the next decade. The only question on this team is whether or not Ray Emery can keep his head straight and display his talent on the ice.

6. Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes proved they were for real last year when they not only upset the New Jersey Devils, but also the Boston Bruins on their way to the Eastern Conference finals. A quick, aggressive, and young team, they will have another good year and should find themselves returning to the playoffs behind solid goaltending from Cam Ward.

7. Tampa Bay Lightning: Victor Hedman was an excellent pick for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who immediately addressed their need for a defensive prospect who can turn into a number one defenseman. He will be ready for this upcoming year, and I would not doubt seeing him on the top shutdown-unit with Mattias Ohlund, who was the other big name acquisition this offseason. With a year of experience behind Stamkos, and the return of all-stars Lecavalier and St. Louis, it is going to be a return to the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

8. New York Rangers: As much as I hate to admit it, I feel that the Rangers are going to find a way to squeak into this year’s playoffs. Tortorella is just the no-nonsense guy that the Rangers need behind the bench, and if their skill alone doesn’t get it done, the Rangers conditioning will help them win games late into the season. They lack a true first-line center, but Dubinsky and Prospal will do their best to fit that position. The biggest question marks for the Rangers will be the health of Marian Gaborik, and whether or not Redden and Rozsival remember how to play hockey.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs: I know I am going to take a lot of heat for this one, however, I just do not see the Leafs making it this year. Brian Burke proved he’s a strong-minded general manager by going after Kessel and getting what he wanted. Kessel’s return to the Leafs in November will be a nice boost, however, there are still too many questions surrounding the Leafs for them to crack the line-up this year. Next year will be the year they make it, unless they have a surprise for us all.

10. Ottawa Senators: After finally unloading Dany Heatley to the San Jose Sharks, the Ottawa Senators finally are on track to building up a solid winner. With two good lines leading the attack, a solid defense featuring Campoli, Volchenkov, and Kuba, and a number one goalie in Leclaire, there will be a slight adjustment period this season for the Senators. It will be a tough season again in Ottawa, but hopefully for them it will all fall into place soon.

11. Montreal Canadiens: After last year’s horrid collapse, the Montreal Canadiens had a complete roster overhaul this offseason and seem to be a team searching for their identity. They got completely hosed on the Gomez trade, giving up promising, young defenseman McDonagh in the trade. Hopefully the Canadiens can pull it together going into this season, otherwise they are going to find themselves in a long rebuilding process.

12. Buffalo Sabres: A team who had a tremendous number of questions surrounding them last season just simply did not improve enough this offeseason to answer those questions. Ryan Miller is their only hope of making it into the playoffs this season, and even that is going to be a long shot. The Sabres had their best days two and three seasons ago, respectively, and need to find an identity before they can proceed forward.

13. Florida Panthers: Another year, another playoff-less ending for the Florida Panthers. Jay Bouwmeester is not an easy player to replace, by any means, and his presence will be sorely missed by a team that is only somewhat strong up front. Bringing in Clemmensen to back up Vokoun was a smart move, but unfortunately, it was the only smart move this offseason by the Panthers. There is still a long way to go in Florida, and hopefully they can get it right soon.

14. Atlanta Thrashers: Although they have brought in Antropov (for a ridiculous salary), and Afinogenov will most likely make the team thanks to the Thrashers lack of depth, the Thrashers will once again struggle this season. Bogosian will demonstrate why he is going to be an elite defenseman in this league for a long time, and he will get plenty of help from Kubina, Hainsey, and Enstrom, however, it will not be enough to take the Thrashers out of the Eastern Conference basement.

15. New York Islanders: The drafting of John Tavares was a move in the right direction for an organization sorely lacking any type of identity, however, it was their only positive offensive move as the Islanders focused on bringing in Mathieu Biron and Dwayne Roloson to fill in the goalie vacancy until DiPietro is ready to return sometime in November. It will be fun to watch Bailey and Okposo develop further this season, along with the rest of the Islanders youngsters, however, they will still find themselves in the basement of the Eastern Conference and with a chance to select first-overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. As my partner Glen Miller said in his predictions blog, the lottery watch for 2010 begins on Long Island on October 3^rd.

Well, there you have it, my personal predictions for the 2009-2010 Eastern Conference. I know you will not agree with every single team and their placement, however, I do believe these will be somewhat close to the final standings.

As always, comments and questions are greatly appreciated and can be emailed to me at IslesNet@Gmail.com, or left in the comments section below.

-Justin

Dubinsky Finally Re-Signs - 2 Years, $3.7 million?!?!?!

2009-09-20T22:27:00.005-04:00

Call me confused. Don’t get me wrong; I am stoked that the Rangers and Glen Sather finally came to their senses and gave Dubinsky enough money to entice him to re-sign. The problem I have is with the money they gave him, especially if the reports I have read are true.

We know that pressure had been building on Dubinsky’s side to get the player into camp. John Tortorella and his teammates had reached out both through the media and personally to Dubinsky indicating that they felt it was in his best interest to be in camp with the rest of the team. Reportedly, Dubinsky’s camp lowered their contractual demands in an attempt to meet Sather “in the middle”, so to speak and establish an amicable end to the drawn out negotiations.

Here’s where the confusion for me begins. Reportedly, according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post in a blog post dated on 9/19/09, Dubinsky and his agent reduced their demands to either a one year, $1.15 million deal or a two year, $2.1 million pact. Sather meanwhile was reported to be holding fast to their offer of 1 year at $700,000 or a 2 year deal for $1.85 million.

Suddenly it was announced that Dubinsky had agreed to a 2 year contract worth a total of $3.7 million. What?!?!?!? Did Sather really play hardball with a good, young piece of the Rangers future only to end up giving him more than what he was asking for? It had gotten to the point where there was concern among Rangers fans that Sather’s tactics would alienate a potential cornerstone.

The Rangers are already very close to the salary cap ceiling for this season. More importantly, the Rangers have nearly $47 million in cap space committed to the following players: Marian Gaborik, Sean Avery, Ales Kotalik, Chris Drury, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Donald Brashear, Artem Anisimov, Brian Boyle, Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival, Matt Gilroy and Henrik Lundqvist (13 players – 9 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie). Noticeably absent from that list are Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, who will both be RFA’s after the season, and Christopher Higgins who will be an UFA after the season.

With a chance the salary cap could drop from its present ceiling of $56.8 million for next season, it could prove to be very difficult for the Rangers to fit everyone under the cap. Every little bit could be important. So if you believe the New York Post and Dubinsky’s reported asking price, why then did the Rangers give Dubinsky an average of roughly $700,000 more (in cap space) per year than what he was asking for?

My guess is the report from the New York Post was inaccurate. Either that or Glen Sather needs to be committed to a psych ward. Regardless, the Rangers will face some difficult decisions following the season.

Eastern Conference Predictions

2009-09-17T18:51:00.003-04:00

I suppose this is a case of better late than never since I was supposed to have had this up a week ago. Anyway, after careful deliberation I’ve concluded that 7 of the 8 playoff teams from a year ago make it again this year. The lone non-playoff team to crack the top 8 will be Tampa. I’m sure you’ll find some of my choices debatable. That’s fine, feel free to disagree and share with me your thoughts on this year’s Eastern Conference standings. Now for my Eastern Conference predictions:

1. New York Rangers – Well yeah, how could I as a Rangers fan not pick them to win the East? Count on Gaborik staying healthy for 82 games and netting 60 goals this year while Matt Gilroy will be the runaway choice for the Calder trophy as the NHL’s top rookie. Lundqvist will win 50 games this year and the Rangers will……aw who am I kidding? Really, I am more objective than this. The Real #1 team in the East will be……

The Washington Capitals – The Caps return most of their key players and expect to replace the losses of Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov with Mike Knuble, Brendan Morrison and improved production from Brooks Laich. The only question will be in net where coach Bruce Boudreau has already stated that Jose Theodore is the starter but he will still be pushed by playoff phenom Semyon Varlamov and his fellow rookie Michal Neuvirth. My guess is they will get enough quality goaltending from some combination of those three netminders to take the East.

The Caps are a hungry team that has tasted some playoff success and clearly want more. Knuble should prove his worth in helping this young team mature come playoff time. Winning the East in the regular season won’t be enough for these guys; they expect to be playing for the Cup in June.

2. Philadelphia Flyers – I’ve got the Flyers over the Pens in the Atlantic simply because the Penguins have played a lot of hockey over the last two seasons. After winning the Cup last season I think that this squad will be more inclined to pace themselves through the regular season in order to stay as fresh as possible for the playoffs. That will allow the Flyers to take the Atlantic crown.

The addition of Chris Pronger will also allow this team to challenge the top teams in the conference as they can now ice two very good defensive tandems with Pronger, Timonen, Coburn and Matt Carle. Offensively they lost some depth with the inclusion of Joffrey Lupul in the trade for Pronger but a healthy Danny Briere and a full season from hot shot rookie Claude Giroux should replace that production.

The biggest question surrounding the Flyers, as it has been for several years now, is goaltending. The Flyers were quick to repatriate KHL refugee Ray Emery and hand him the keys to the Flyers season. He will be backed up by a former Flyers starting backstop, Brian Boucher. Emery has enough of a chip on his shoulder that I think he’ll surprise some people with his play this year.

3. Boston Bruins – This was an easy pick. The Bruins have lost some depth players (Steve Montador, Stephane Yelle and Aaron Ward have all moved on) but return all of the key contributors of their young nucleus with the possible exception of Phil Kessel. Kessel is looking to be paid more than what the Bruins are willing and/or able to offer him as a RFA. It’s likely that Kessel will be a Maple Leaf or a Predator before too long.

Even if Kessel is dealt, the Bruins are still the team to beat in the Northeast. Montreal shuffled their roster but aren’t clearly better than they were last year. Ottawa added Alexei Kovalev but lost Heatley and didn’t adequately replace him. Buffalo added some role players but lost two of their defensive stalwarts of years past in Jaroslav Spacek and Teppo Numinen. Toronto is better but they don’t have enough firepower up front even if they do grab Kessel. Clearly this is Boston’s division to lose.

4. Pittsburgh – Not to worry Pens fans, there is no need to put your fist through your computer monitors. I am picking the Penguins to finish 4th not because I don’t think they’re the best team in the NHL but because I think they are smart. They’ve played a lot of hockey going deep into the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. They’ll pace themselves this year so they are at their healthy best for the postseason. If the let the Flyers win the Atlantic then so be it; this is a team focused on repeating as Stanley Cup Champs.

Sure the losses of Petr Sykora, Hal Gill and playoff hero Rob Scuderi will be felt but re-signing Bill Guerin and Ruslan Fedotenko and having Chris Kunitz around for the full season will help immensely. I also feel that Jay McKee could turn out to be one of the steals of this year’s free agent class. The Pens will also look to youngsters like Kris Letang and even possibly Luca Caputi to take up some of the slack. This team will be in the mix for sure come playoff time.

5. Carolina – A surprising and impressive playoff run came to an abrupt stop last year when the Canes met up with the Pens in the Conference Finals. The Pens laid the wood to the upstart squad from the South and exposed a lack of physicality on the Canes; especially from their defense. While the Canes return most of their forwards, including Erik Cole, the team made some changes to the blue line by waving good bye to Dennis Seidenberg and Frank Kaberle while bringing back Aaron Ward from Boston by trade and adding Andrew Alberts via free agency. Both of those players bring a more rugged element to their game than the guys they are replacing.

The Canes also look poised to move RFA Anton Babchuk who had a breakthrough offensive campaign last year. His contract demands will not fit into the salary structure of the Canes. They may not be as dynamic offensively this year but they should be tougher to play against nonetheless. They still have Eric Staal, Ray Whitney and Cam Ward so this is surely a playoff team and definitely the 2nd best team in the Southeast.

Cam Ward will be the real key for this team though. I’ve already had lively debates about Ward. I made the mistake of referring to Ward as “not an upper echelon goalie” or words to that effect. Well, I still feel that way. Ward is good, don’t get me wrong. He has had great success in the playoffs including a Conn Smythe award. Fine, I get that. I will call him an upper echelon goalie when I see him put it all together in the regular season. Last season, he finished in the middle of the pack in both GAA (tied for 12th) and Save % (tied for 11th). I’d like to see a top 5 finish before I put him in the “upper echelon”. Look, there are times I don’t think the King is an “upper echelon” guy. In fact the only guys that I can say with certainty fit into that category for me are Roberto Luongo and Marty Brodeur. It’s not an insult to be called a very good goalie by me.

6. New York Rangers – This was a hard pick for me to make; it’s my team after all. It’s hard to stay objective and to keep the fan in me quiet. As a fan I want to be optimistic about this team, I want to believe what I wrote earlier about Gaborik staying healthy and scoring 60 goals. I want to believe that the incoming rookies will step right in and play like seasoned pros. Yes, the realist in me even believes all of that is possible; but I also believe in the existence of extraterrestrial life too so……….

The realist in me knows that the Rangers are counting heavily on having a healthy Gaborik, getting quality minutes from several young players and being able to add a bunch of new faces to the lineup and getting them to gel quickly. One or two of these could happen but probably not all three. The realist in me sees a team that could miss the playoffs entirely.

The combination of the fan and the realist though knows better than either of them does separately. I know that the Rangers have Henrik Lundqvist and that makes them a playoff team. It’s a very similar situation in Jersey with Marty Brodeur. Every year that organization sees quality players leave town and many people believe every year that this will be the year they don’t make it to the playoffs. And every year they find a way. It’ll be the same for the Rangers as long as Lundqvist is the backbone of the team.

7. New Jersey – See above. No seriously, the Devils have been counted out more often than I can remember but ever since Marty Brodeur has been around they have proven the skeptics wrong. Again this off-season the Devils saw more talent depart than talent brought in and yet I still can’t pick against them. Last year they did it without Brodeur for most of the year and this year they get him back so it seems pretty cut and dried to me. They’re in until they’re not.

8. Tampa – Yes, the Lightning edge out the Canadiens and the Sabres for the final playoff spot. After playing fantasy hockey last off-season, Lightning management, under GM Brian Lawton, was far more controlled with their spending this year. They made a wise move bringing in veteran defenseman Mattias Ohlund to mentor hot shot rookie Victor Hedman. The team also added veteran blue liners Matt Walker and Kurtis Foster to address the team’s weakest point.

Any team that boasts a potential top line of Martin St. Louis, Vinny Lecavalier and Alex Tanguay has firepower to burn. With Steven Stamkos looking to build upon a solid finish to his rookie season and Ryan Malone around to provide more secondary scoring, the Lightning should have no problems scoring goals.

The problem has been in net with the Lightning ever since Nikolai Khabibulin chased the free agent bucks to Chicago several years back. Last year’s starter, Mike Smith, will have to over come his concussion issues from last season. That is why I think that the signing of former Flyer Antero Niitymaki could prove to be a great move. The guy is talented; he was a former first round pick after all. He just didn’t pan out in Philly but is still young enough that he can turn it around in a less pressurized environment here in Tampa.

9. Buffalo – There are just too many ifs and not enough new blood on this roster to crack the top 8. Losing Teppo Numinen and Jaroslav Spacek and not adequately replacing them is risky. This is a team that will have to rely on Ryan Miller to be excellent and healthy in order to be competitive for a playoff spot. A full season from C Tim Connolly would also be of great help but I’ll believe that when I see it. Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy are both very good and I have nothing but respect for Head Coach Lindy Ruff but this team is too thin to be a contender.

10. Montreal – They went into last season hoping to cap off their 100th anniversary season with a parade; instead they finished it off with a whimper after getting hammered by Boston in the playoffs. GM Bob Gainey decided it was time to overhaul his roster. He allowed long-time Canadiens Captain Saku Koivu to leave as a free agent. Also leaving the free agent route were Alexei Kovalev, Mike Komisarek and Alex Tanguay while Christopher Higgins was sent to the New York Rangers in exchange for Gainey’s first pricey off-season acquisition, Scott Gomez.

Joining Gomez in Montreal as 1st year Canadiens are forwards Brian Gionta, Travis Moen and Mike Cammallerri and defensemen Hal Gill, Jaroslav Spacek and Paul Mara. Weighing the additions against the subtractions, I can’t say that the Canadiens are improved. It will be hard for so many new faces to gel into a cohesive unit. If the Canadiens are going to qualify for the playoffs then goalie Carey Price is going to have to really up his game.

11. Toronto – Brian Burke didn’t take long to cast the Leafs in his image. He has always favored bigger players that play with a mean streak and his off-season additions fit into that mold very well. The Leafs added free agent defensemen Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin while picking up tough defender Garnet Exelby via trade with Atlanta in exchange for D Pavel Kubina.

Citing his disappointment with how the team was generally manhandled by their opponents last season, Burke also reached into the free agent pool to grab former Ranger enforcer Colton Orr. Orr had improved his overall game while in New York but wasn’t a fit for the new John Tortorella system and was allowed to leave. He was welcomed with open arms by Burke.

The team is still light on scoring up front and the potential is here for the Leafs to lose a lot of 2 -1 and 3 -2 games. If the new goaltending duo of Vesa Toskala and Jonas Gustavsson are as solid as hoped for then the Leafs will be in the hunt for most of the year before finally falling out of it in the end due to their lack of offensive firepower.

12. Florida – I feel bad for Randy Sexton. Jacques Martin’s inaction as it related to franchise defenseman and pending UFA Jay Bouwmeester hamstrung this team. Instead of dealing him at the deadline for tangible assets, Martin hung onto Bouwmeester in the vain hope of qualifying for the postseason. After failing to make the playoffs, Martin bailed out to go coach the Canadiens (good luck with that Jacques) and left Sexton holding the hand grenade. Well Sexton did an admirable job of dealing Bouwmeester’s rights to Calgary for useful, if unspectacular, defenseman Jordan Leopold and a draft pick.

Then poor Randy Sexton had to navigate the entire off-season with the dreaded “interim” label attached to him. He tried with the Panthers limited resources to improve the team but outside of swapping Bouwmeester’s rights for Leopold and swinging a trade for former Coyote C Steven Reinprecht, Sexton was unable to do much to improve a roster short on proven talent.

The hope here is that some of the young players step up their game. Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss, Rostislav Olesz and Shawn Matthias all of the ability to be good to excellent NHl’ers but haven’t reached their full potential yet.

Goaltending is in the hands of the very capable tandem of Tomas Vokuon and Scott Clemensen who stepped in and helped save Jersey’s season after Marty Brodeur got hurt.

Unfortunately the Panthers won’t improve enough internally and didn’t do nearly enough from an external standpoint to make this a playoff caliber team. That’s a shame too since Pete DeBoer is proving himself to be a pretty good coach. P.S. Make Sexton your permanent GM for goodness sake!!

13. Atlanta – I like the moves that GM Don Waddell did this off-season by adding D Pavel Kubina and Nik Antropov. They’ll certainly make this a more potent offense. The top 4 of Tobias Enstrom, Kubina, Zach Bogosian and Ron Hainsey is nothing to be sneezed at as far as defensive groups go.

Offensively, this team is staring to put together two decent scoring lines with Antropov joining franchise winger Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryan Little, Todd White and Slava Kozlov. There are some young kids too like Rich Peverly who can help out in the goal scoring department too.

In net is really where I see the problems for the Thrashers. Kari Lehtonen has yet to develop into the stud he was projected to be when drafted. The Thrashers also have young Ondrej Pavelec knocking on the door. To add further to the mix, the team brought in veteran backstop Manny Legace for a tryout. Someone is going to have to step up and take charge in net for the Thrashers to challenge for a playoff spot. They are improving but still a little thin both up front and on D to survive with substandard goaltending.

14. Ottawa – Yes, the Senators have fallen this far. Trading star winger Dany Heatley for 2 second line wingers, one of whom has seen a huge decline in his output in recent years, will hurt greatly. The team had added veteran sniper Alex Kovalev to help with secondary scoring and now he becomes a primary weapon in Ottawa. It may be good to get rid of the locker room distraction but the decline in talent is palpable.

In net, the Senators hope they have finally solved their need for a long time starter between the pipes by acquiring Pascal Leclaire from Columbus. Leclaire was finally starting to play up to his advanced billing 2 years ago but last year was a disaster as he was injured early and lost his job to super frosh Steve Mason. Leclaire gets the reins here in Ottawa as there is no proven back-up on the roster. Instead, the Sens will go with young Brian Elliot to spell Leclaire. Sens fans had better hope Leclaire stays healthy.

15. NY Islanders – The Isles finally started to focus on rebuilding their farm system and have stopped taking fliers on journeymen NHL’ers to plug holes. The Isles have young stars in the making with Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey and now #1 overall draft pick John Tavares. Doug Weight was encouraged to stick around to tutor the young talent.

The ridiculous 15 year contract awarded to Rick DiPietro is looking worse by the minute. Clearly the Islanders didn’t think he was going to be ready to start the season or else they wouldn’t have signed both Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron. When and if DiPietro regains his health, Biron will prove to be a valuable trade chip assuming GM Garth Snow chooses to cash it in.

On D, the Islanders are very thin. Some experts thought that the team would have been better off taking Victor Hedman # 1 overall for that reason. Outside of Brendan Witt and Mark Streit, I’m not too sure the Islanders have any quality top 4 defensemen. Their system lacks top-drawer defensive talent as well.

They are finally on the right track though it will be another long season on the Island. The Taylor Hall watch begins officially…..now for the Islanders.

Counting Down to the Regular Season

2009-09-16T18:20:00.003-04:00

It’s finally begun; the start of hockey season is here. The Rangers opened camp and played their first exhibition game losing to the Boston Bruins 2 – 1. Christopher Higgins recorded the lone Rangers goal and by all accounts has been very solid in camp. Other Rangers being mentioned in a positive light in the numerous stories I’ve read are: Matt Gilroy (who was paired with Marc Staal on defense with both players seeing time in all situations) Evgeni Grachev, Michael Del Zotto and Ales Kotalik.

I’ve been critical of Kotalik at least in terms of the contract given him but apparently he was cranking shots from the point on the PP yesterday. If he keeps that up and can play decent at even strength then the decision to sign him may pan out alright after all. Grachev and Del Zotto seem intent on making it tough to send either one down. Del Zotto was paired with Kotalik on the PP points and drew praise from Torts on his confidence and aggressive play offensively.

Moore to Re-join NYR?

In another item pertaining to the Blue Shirts, Eklund blogged today that the Rangers might be looking to bring back veteran Center Dominic Moore, perhaps on a tryout basis. I could see the Rangers doing worse things. Moore had a minor breakthrough season offensively last season recording a line of 13G – 32A -45Pts in 81 games split between Toronto and Buffalo. Unfortunately, Moore struggled upon his arrival in Buffalo only scoring 4 points in 18 games there. Considering his previous high in goals (9) and points (18) scored occurred in his first full NHL season of 2005-2006 and the fact that Moore is now 29, it is likely that last season was a bit of a fluke. Regardless, if Moore does eventually join the Rangers, he will provide some depth at the Center position whether he fills a spot on one of the top lines or plays some 4th line and kills penalties. On a side note, my 15 year-old daughter will be thrilled if Moore comes back as he was her favorite Ranger because she thought he was cute. Good thing we live in Southern California

Zherdev Comes Crawling Back?

Over a month after the Rangers walked away from his arbitration award and still without an NHL deal, Nik Zherdev’s agent contacted the team offering to accept the same offer the Rangers made when they qualified him; a 1 year contract worth $3.25 million according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post. Wisely the Rangers declined Zherdev’s overtures. Obviously Zherdev and his agent over-estimated Zherdev’s appeal on the open market.

The problem in Zherdev’s case and other players who go through the process of arbitration in the salary cap environment is the timing of the process. Zherdev’s award was announced on the 2nd of August and the Rangers rescinded their rights to him on the 4th. By that time, over a month had passed since the UFA market had opened for business and most teams had already spent their allotted cap space. Teams that did express interest in Zherdev had little cap space to offer him. According to TSN, Zherdev today signed a deal to play in the KHL for next season so we won’t be seeing him in an NHL arena this season.
Unfortunately, the deal with Columbus to acquire Zherdev and Fritsche for D Fedor Tyutin and D Christian Backman looks like a sever miscalculation as the Rangers are left with nothing to show for it. Fritsche was moved to Minnesota for D Erik Reitz who was then claimed by the Maple Leafs off of waivers. Tyutin has developed into a very good top 4 defenseman for the Blue Jackets in the mean time.

Good Riddance to the Heatley to NYR Rumor; Say Hello to the Kessel to NYR Rumors

Finally! Heatley got moved. Now I can not have to read the ridiculous rumors of Heatley to the Rangers. There was no way given the financial dynamics. The Rangers simply didn't have the cap space to add salary and the Sens didn't want to take on any of their bad contracts in exchange. All of those looking forward to a couple of rumor-free weeks before the start of the regular season will be sorely disappointed though as Ek is listing the Rangers as a possible destination for RFA Phil Kessel. That's not likely to happen either folks.

The reason that Kessel is currently unsigned is the Bruins have little cap space as it sits and Kessel wants $4 million or more a year on a new deal. Obviously the Rangers don't have the necessary space to take on that type of contract either so any move to acquire Kessel would have to be through trade. Again the Bruins don't have the cap room to take on the type of additional salary it would take for the Rangers to fit Kessel under the cap. A more likely landing spot for Kessel is Toronto as they have the cap space and a need for a dynamic offensive forward. The fact that the Leafs reacquired their own 3rd round draft pick has put them in a spot where they can submit an offer sheet and then meet the requirements in terms of picks in the event the Bruins didn't match. Makes more sense than the Rangers getting involved.

2009-09-07T19:35:00.002-04:00

Fantasy Time

I will admit it; I don’t know about most of you but I am a fantasy addict. I play fantasy baseball, football and especially hockey. In fact, this year I have joined 3 leagues, two of which are keeper leagues. This will be my first foray into a keeper hockey league so I am looking forward to it. In one of the keeper leagues, the league manager paired up all of the teams and we are allowed to keep two players from each of “our” teams. We were allowed to select the “team pairs” on a first-come-first-served basis. Naturally I chose the pairing of the Rangers and Kings and I kept Gaborik (hope he stays healthy), Lundqvist, Koptiar and Doughty. The other league is a salary cap league.

The most interesting of the two keeper leagues is the salary cap league. We can have 17 players on the roster (2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 G, 6 bench spots and 1 IR spot) and our salary cap is $40 million. The NHL’s salary cap is currently at $56.8 million with 21 or 22 players (13 F, 7 D and 2 G possibly). That means the maximum average salary per player in the NHL is about $2.58 million. In our salary cap league the maximum average salary per player allowed would be about $2.35 million per player. That is even lower than what real NHL teams are working with. There are going to be many good players that won’t be drafted.

We are conducting an off-line draft which means that it isn’t live; there are no time constrictions on when we have to make a pick so things are moving slowly. Apart from that fact I am really enjoying this format. We are only in the second round but we have already seen a number of players on entry-level contracts chosen (i.e. Devin Setoguchi, Steve Mason, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos and Bobby Ryan) that likely wouldn’t have been selected this early in more traditional formats. We have already realized that cap space is at a premium and we have bypassed players like Eric Staal, Henrik Lundqvist, Joe Thornton and Vinny Lecavalier, all of whom would typically have been selected by now, because of their expensive contracts.

So far, I have drafted Roberto Luongo in the first round with the 12th pick overall and Jonathan Toews with the 17th overall pick. I chose Luongo because A) he is the best goalie in the game and B) his cap number decreases next season since signing his new extension. Toews was a no-brainer as I needed offense and with his relatively low cap hit of $850,000, I have a better chance of staying under the league cap number. Of course I have to consider that Toews is a RFA after this season so if I elect to keep him I will have to budget his certain increase in salary into next year’s cap limit. I wish I had gone offense in round 1 and followed up with Steve Mason and the 2 years remaining on his entry level deal that pays him only $820,000 per. Another factor to consider is that we can only keep a player for 3 seasons, including this one.

I will freely admit that I am a geek; especially when it comes to stats. I have a spreadsheet with 40 players on it that will hopefully comprise the core of my team. I have included their cap hits for each of the next three seasons (if applicable), their projected fantasy points and their projected fantasy points per million $ of salary. That helps me determine the value in terms of their projected production versus salary. Naturally I have to weigh in the fact that that some of my players will be free agents after this season so I have to be careful how I budget; not only for this year but for subsequent seasons.

I am curious how many of you also play fantasy hockey and what type of format you enjoy playing. Do you guys think this format will be fun? I am open to suggestions from you guys as to whom I should draft next. Here is the board currently:

1.Team Stewart:----------------Alex Ovechkin, 9.53mil

2.Creepsville Stalkers:--------Evgeni Malkin, 8.70mil

3.Ventura Vikings:-------------Jarome Iginla, 7.00mil

4.Touchdown Jesus:---------------Zach Parise, 3.12mil

5.Devilish Ducks:---------------Ryan Getzlaf, 5.32mil

6.Left Coast Lumberjacks:------Sidney Crosby, 8.7 mil

7.LoneStar Crusadres:-----------Pavel Datsyuk,6.7 mil

8.Brattleboro Senators III:------Daniel Sedin, 6.1 mil

9.Team Tronsgard:----------------Marc Savard, 5.0mil

10.Team Farrar:------------Henrik Zetterberg, 6.08 mil

11.What the Puck!:----------Nicklas Backstrom, 0.85 mil

12.Hartford Whalers:-----------Roberto Luongo, 6.75 mil

13.dustin brownies:--------------Rick Nash 5.4 mil

14. Winnipeg Jets:--------------Ilya Kovalchuk 6.38 mil

Round 2: 1.Winnipeg Jets:---------------Mike Green, 5.25mil

2.dustin brownies-------------Patrick Kane, 0.87mil

3.Hartford Whalers:-----------Jonathan Toews 0.85 mil

4.What the Puck--------------Alexander Semin 4.60M

5.Team Farrar----------------Steve Mason, 0.82 M

6.Team Tronsgard-------------Devin Setoguchi 0.82M

7.Brattleboro Senators III-----Henrik Sedin, 6.10M

8.LoneStar Crusadres-------------Brad Boyes, 4.0M

9.Left Coast Lumberjacks------------Cam Ward 2.67 mil

10.Devilish Ducks------------------Bobby Ryan 0.82M

11.Touchdown Jesus--------------Mikka Kiprusoff, 5.83M

12.Ventura Vikings

13.Creepsvile Stalkers

14.Team Stewart

ROUND 3: 1.Team Stewart:----------------

2.Creepsville Stalkers:--------

3.Ventura Vikings:-------------

4.Touchdown Jesus:---------------

5.Devilish Ducks:---------------

6.Left Coast Lumberjacks:------

7.LoneStar Crusadres:-----------

8.Brattleboro Senators III:------

9.Team Tronsgard:---------------

10.Team Farrar:----------

11.What the Puck!:----------

12.Hartford Whalers:-----------

13.dustin brownies:-------------

14. Winnipeg Jets:--------------

I am the Hartford Whalers and as you can see I don’t draft again until the 3rd round (40th overall). If you have any suggestions as to who I should select, feel free to leave them in the comments section. Note: I took Luongo over Lundqvist solely because of the cap hit in the next two years. It was difficult as a Rangers fan to do that but I want to win and saving $1.5 million in each of the next two seasons was the key to that decision.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter.gkmkiller.

Thanks,

Western Conference Predictions

2009-09-07T12:45:00.004-04:00

Predictions – West

Ok, I know, it’s not an original concept for a blog post but I still want to get my predictions on record before the season starts. Feel free to disagree about any of my choices. Anything can change between now and the end of the regular season, injuries and trades for example but I’ll still stand by these. Today I post the West and the East will follow later this week.

1. Chicago – A young team rapidly earning their stripes finally passes the Red Wings in the tough Central. Christobal Huet will have to step up and replace the departed Nikolai Khabibulin in net but with such a talented group in front of him he should be good enough to backstop this team to a #1 seed in the West. The real question will be how far they can go in the playoffs.

2. Anaheim – I like the off-season additions of Saku Koivu, Nick Boynton, Joffrey Lupul and most recently Evgeni Arthukin. This team has two good scoring lines, two starting-caliber goaltenders and a defense that returns perennial Norris Trophy candidate Scott Niedermayer and will get a full season from Ryan Whitney and James Wiesnewski. This is a team with no discernible holes and after upending the #1 seed Sharks in last year’s playoffs the Ducks should be primed for a long run in this year’s playoffs.

3. Calgary – The Flames will barely hold off the Canucks in what should be one of the more interesting divisions in the NHL. The Flames have added stud defenseman Jay Bouwmeester and checking forward Fredrik Sjostrom to an already impressive lineup that includes Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen, Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Reghyr. If Jokinen bounces back from a tough season and Miika Kiprusoff is consistently solid in net, I see the Flames coming out on top in the Northwest and thus earning the automatic top 3 seed.

4. Detroit – Despite the losses of Marian Hossa and Jiri Hudler, the Red Wings are still capable of taking the conference again. I just feel that after two long playoff runs and a couple of significant losses, the Wings won’t be able to hold off the Hawks for Central division supremacy this year. The Wings have to hope that Goaltender Chris Osgood plays better than he did last year as veteran back-up Ty Conklin left for St. Louis as a free agent. The team added Patrick Eaves, Todd Bertuzzi and Jason Williams to help offset the losses of Hossa and Hudler. With Lidstrom and Rafalski leading the charge from the back line and Franzen, Datsyuk and Zetterberg up front the Wings remain in good position.

5. San Jose – The Sharks fall off a little and lose the Pacific Division crown to the Ducks this year but that may not be such a bad thing if the last longer in the playoffs. The Sharks went the other route last season and took the top seed in the West before bowing out to the #8 seeded Ducks. Way too much talent on this roster to not make the playoffs but I think many Sharks fans were expecting something a little more radical this off-season after such a disappointing playoffs last year. They have been rumored to be pursuing Heatley but nothing yet. I don’t think it’ll matter much to Sharks fans how the fare in the regular season as long as they qualify for the playoffs. It will be their play in the postseason that will be closely scrutinized.

6. Vancouver – The recent additions of Defensemen Mathieu Schneider via free agency and Christian Ehrhoff and Brad Lukowich in a trade with San Jose, the Canucks feel they have adequately replaced the loss of veteran Mattias Ohlund to Tampa in free agency. With Kevin Bieska, Willie Mitchell, Sami Salo, Shane O’Brien and youngster Alexandre Edler already in the fold the Canucks are deeper than they were last year defensively and can withstand the type of injuries that robbed the team of Bieska and Salo for stretches last year. They have one of the best in net with Luongo so no problems there. What keeps the Canucks from overtaking the Flames is their lack of scoring depth up front. Apart from the Sedins the team has some nice players but no one to really take the scoring pressure off.

7. Columbus – Back-to-back playoff berths for this once moribund franchise has to make the fans of the Blue Jackets happy. They have a premier forward in Rick Nash, a real up-and-comer in net with Steve Mason and some nice complementary pieces up front in veteran checker Sami Pahlsson, young stud Center Darrick Brassard and key role players like Antoine Vermette and R.J. Umberger. The Jackets are lacking on the defensive end with only Fedor Tyutin and Mike Commodore performing up to par last year. Another offensive minded defenseman would be a welcome addition and could put the Jackets in position to challenge the Wings for the 4th seed.

8. Los Angeles - I am guilty of drinking the kool-aid; I believe that the Kings will finally get back to the playoffs after many years out. So much young talent and they will finally start to gel in the second half of the season and the Kings will pass the St. Louis Blues and take the 8th spot in the West. Granted it will all end quickly in the playoffs at the hands of the Hawks but this will be a big step in the ascension of the L.A. Kings. Jonathan Quick will finally provide the Kings with consistent play between the pipes and the young defense will improve to the point where the Kings will be in most every game.

9. Dallas – A return to health for key forwards Brendan Morrow and Jere Lehtinen will help catapult the Stars back into the playoff picture though the Kings will beat them out in the final days of the regular season. An improved Marty Turco will also elevate the team from afterthought to contender in the West. The real key however may be the young defense. With Sergei Zubov leaving Dallas for the KHL, young players like Trevor Daley, Matt Niskanen and Niklas Grossman to carry the load.

10. St. Louis - As I foreshadowed in a previous prediction the Blues will finish just short of a second consecutive playoff berth. They had a real bounce-back season and a great second half propelled them to the playoffs last year. Unfortunately they didn’t do enough in the off-season to build upon last year’s success. A return to health by Erik Johnson will help but he probably won’t be at full strength to begin the season. Eric Brewer could potentially miss a big chunk of the season leaving some holes on the blue line. Offensively the team has some nice pieces but it won’t be enough in the end.

11. Edmonton – After being spurned by Dany Heatley in the off-season, the Oilers head into the coming season looking much like they did ending last season; young and improving but not quite playoff ready yet. The addition of Khabibulin in net will be an upgrade but the Oilers would need a number of young forwards to improve significantly in order to realistically have a chance at the playoffs. Heatley would have made them a contender for a lower seed.

12. Minnesota – After years of moderate success under the direction of the architect of the notorious “trap”, the Wild have changed course after firing GM Doug Riseborough and watching Jaques Lemaire take his bag of tricks back to New Jersey. New coach Todd Richards plans to install a more fast-paced and offensive-minded attack. Franchise stalwart Marian Gaborik left the Wild and signed with the Rangers and he was replaced by another oft-injured forward Martin Havlat. With slow plodders Andrew Brunette and Owen Nolan expected to be important cogs up front it’s hard to imagine that Richards offensive transition will be seamless.

13. Nashville – GM Dave Poile and Coach Barry Trotz have done a stupendous job of keeping the medium market Preds competitive in a tough division. Unfortunately it will be another year outside of the playoff bubble in Nashville. While the Preds boast one of the best blue line groups in the NHL, they are thin up front and must rely heavily on youngster Pekka Rinne in goal. They could surprise but all indications are that they will not qualify for the playoffs this season.

14. Colorado – Thank goodness for Phoenix or Hamilton or whatever they are going to be. Otherwise it would be the Avalanche bringing up the rear in the West. The Avalanche do have a couple of bright spots; Center Paul Stastny and…….well maybe that’s about it until Matt Duchesne makes his Colorado debut. They have serious holes in net and have an aging blue line. Not much to look forward to in Denver.

15. Phoenix – Yes, they have more young talent than Colorado. And yes they also are in better shape in net but with all of the drama surrounding the sale and the potential move of the franchise I find it unlikely that Phoenix will finish anywhere other than last in the West. As a fan of hockey, I hope that the ownership situation clears up and the team can begin to move forward so some of the young talent can mature and help this franchise contend at some point.

Defending Statistical Analysis

2009-08-30T14:42:00.001-04:00

As a self-proclaimed advocate of Statistical Analysis and its potential in the world of hockey I must now defend the practice after a recent blog authored by former Minnesota Wild Assistant GM Tom Lynn was published on The Hockey News on August 28th. For those of you who may be interested in reading the whole post, here is the link: http://thehockeynews.com/articles/27659-Tom-Lynns-Blog-Why-statistical-information-can-only-take-you-so-far.html

While not an outright condemnation of the use of statistical analysis, Lynn does seem to compose his blog with a condescending tone towards the “professionals, professors and students, each purporting to have developed a mathematical measurement of player performance that would ensure success on the ice.” In truth, I agree with much of what Mr. Lynn has to say in his blog; to a certain extent. “The key to understanding the usefulness of statistics is context.” Lynn argues. He then cites an argument used during the arbitration hearing of former Avalanche forward Antti Laaksonen: “I heard an argument in a salary arbitration case years ago that Antti Laaksonen, then one of the better defensive wingers in the game, had only one less even-strength goal than Joe Sakic in 2000-2001, so the only thing standing between Laaksonen and superstardom was Sakic’s five minutes in power play time per game” Of course, as Lynn contends, there is no way that Laaksonen ever should have been compared to Sakic for purposes of considering value and salary.

Another scenario cited by Lynn as an example of stats being misleading because of the context with which the stats were presented was the trade of the late Sergei Zholtok from Montreal to Edmonton for a 9th round draft choice. After coming off of a 26 goal season, it would have seemed that Zholtok should have had more value than a lowly 9th round draft choice but as Lynn states in his post, “On closer examination, however, one found that the Canadiens’ top two centers, Saku Koivu and Trevor Linden, had been injured much of the 1999-2000 season and Zholtok had received all of the offensive center ice time during that stretch, giving him the opportunity for a career year.” Lynn’s position makes sense; context is critical when using statistics to assess the values of players.

I do think that Mr. Lynn is over-simplifying statistical analysis. In both of the examples mentioned above the only stat being referenced is goals scored; Laaksonen’s number of even-strength goals relative to that of Joe Sakic’s and Sergei Zholtok’s goals scored in a given year. The whole purpose of modern analysis is to develop numbers and stats that encompass more than just goals or points. In previous points I have identified a number of modern stats that attempt to incorporate as many facets of a player’s on-ice contributions as possible. These new stats try to account for factors such as when goals are scored, the strength of competition that a player faces in given situations, etc. Essentially they are doing their best to make context a part of the formula.

Mr. Lynn also mentions that the NHL already distributes a plethora of statistical information to the teams, although, “the approaches tended to be hindsight oriented, meaning they were designed to explain events that happened in the past, rather than what is going to happen in the future. Put another way, it is much easier to develop a scientific explanation for how a tornado developed than it would be to accurately predict the next one”. This statement is dead on. Trying to use a mathematical formula to predict a player’s future performance is next to impossible. Again, though, I think that Mr. Lynn is at least partially missing the boat. Advanced statistics aren’t designed to project a player’s future contributions as much as they are designed to gauge past contributions in order to establish a trend. The key is in evaluating trends involving a specific player and combining that with traditional methods of player evaluation.

The most practical way to utilize advanced statistics, or metrics, is the same way as what any management team of any business should be looking at; through the parameters of trends. For example, if a player has scored at least 30 goals in 4 out of the previous 5 seasons and none of the underlying factors change (i.e. player is not reaching an age where a decline in production should be anticipated or the player has not changed teams, etc.) then isn’t it reasonable to conclude that this player is likely to score at least 30 goals again the next season? This is an example of utilizing statistical trends to project future production while incorporating context. It’s the same as any company projecting anticipated sales based on previous years’ numbers for the same period.

In actuality, despite the perceived sleight of statistical analysis, Mr. Lynn has actually reinforced my own position on its use in the NHL. Mr. Lynn never says there isn’t a place for advanced statistics in the NHL; rather he seems to argue that it is important to not discount the other elements of player evaluation. That’s a position that I can agree with.

The Seidenberg Domino

2009-08-25T15:50:00.002-04:00

Rangers in Talks with UFA D Dennis Seidenberg; is a Trade for Heatley in the Works Then?

According to reports from both Steve Zipay of Newsday and The Hockey News, a story out of Germany says that the New York Rangers are one of two teams engaged in discussions with the agent for UFA Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg on a contract. The other team is reportedly the Florida Panthers. Seidenberg is supposedly seeking a three year deal while it appears that both the Rangers and the Panthers are hesitant to offer that term with questions surrounding next season’s salary cap ceiling.

In terms of what Seidenberg can offer the Rangers, I would say that like the courtship of fellow UFA D Francis Bouillon, the Blue Shirts would be getting some needed depth on the back line. With rumors still circulating that Sather is shopping veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival and the possibility that 2 rookies could crack the top six as the roster sits now, it makes a ton of sense for the club to bring in an experienced hand for added blue line depth.

According to The Hockey News, Seidenberg “moves the puck quickly and efficiently out of the defensive zone,” and he “knows when to pinch in from the point and is rather effective with the man advantage.” That’s not exactly high praise but it sounds as if Seidenberg can help the Rangers out especially from a depth perspective while also providing a fall back in case a suitor for Rozsival is found.

Apparently conversations have been going on for quite some time between Seidenberg’s side and the Rangers so I don’t think this might be a precursor to the on-again/off-again rumored acquisition of Dany Heatley. Speculation had previously centered on the possible involvement of Rozsival in any package headed back to Ottawa in exchange for Heatley.

NHLSCAP.com shows the Rangers are just a shade under $1.2 million below this year’s salary cap ceiling. Not counting RFA Brandon Dubinsky (who along with Rozsival was rumored to have been requested by Ottawa in the package for Heatley) the Rangers have 13 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies under contract. Trading for Heatley would require the inclusion of another roster player by the Rangers with a fairly substantial cap hit to offset the $2.5 million difference between Heatley’s ($7.5 million) and Rozsival’s ($5 million) cap figures. Since Dubinsky is a RFA he counts for nothing against the cap number on NHLSCAP.com.

Even if the Rangers demoted both Pat Rismiller and Aaron Voros with their $1 million cap price the Rangers would then only be around $700,000 under the cap if they swung a deal for Heatley and didn’t include another roster player. I don’t see that being enough to acquire Seidenberg and it would also leave the Rangers at the minimum in terms of Forwards and Defensemen on the roster. Sorry Rangers fans; unless Ottawa wants Ales Kotalik in addition to Rozsival it would be too tough to fit all of the pieces under the cap.

In fact, I find it more likely that Florida ends up with Seidenberg since they have more cap space and just as much need for a veteran blue liner. Again a quick look at NHLSCAP.com shows the Panthers have just 4 experienced Defensemen under contract (Bryan McCabe, Keith Ballard, Bryan Allen and Jordan Leopold) and nearly $7 million in available cap space if you deduct Brett McLean (who I believe was bought out earlier this summer?)

Another question I have; with only $1.2 million in cap space, how in the world does Sather intend to sign Seidenberg (or any other depth defenseman) and re-sign Dubinsky? It won’t work. Even if Dubinsky accepted his tender of $600,000+ it would only leave that much for Seidenberg. No, Sather may be up to something else but I don’t think it will be the acquisition of Dany Heatley.

Balsillie Just Won't Go Away

2009-08-25T14:30:00.002-04:00

In an apparent attempt to apply pressure the U.S. Bankruptcy Court and more specifically presiding Judge Redfield T. Baum to rule in his favor, Jim Balsillie has submitted an amended proposal to purchase the Phoenix Coyotes. The amended proposal sets a deadline of September 14th for Judge Baum to accept Balsillie’s bid of $212.5 million for the team. He also asks that Judge Baum disregard the NHL Board of Governor’s recent 26 – 0 vote rejecting Ballsillie’s ownership application and to allow Balsillie to move the franchise to Hamilton immediately.

I for one am getting real tired of Balsillie. When he originally was attempting to purchase the Penguins and subsequently the Predators and move them to Canada, I was all for it. I thought of Balsillie in the same light as I do the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, a pain and an annoyance to most but still good for the game. There is nothing wrong with being an involved and passionate owner. Subtracting a U.S. team from a weak market and taking it back to Canada wouldn’t hurt my feelings or pride as an American. Unfortunately Balsillie doesn’t seem to care about the rules and processes that it would take to become an owner the traditional way. Instead he wants to use every trick in the book including a public relations campaign designed to lower the value of a franchise (as he apparently did in Nashville).

Now he is altering his original proposal to pressure a judge into overruling the NHL and allowing him to buy and then move the Phoenix franchise because he couldn’t get what he wanted the proper way. Basically he is saying that if he can’t get what he wants then he’ll pick up his toys and go home. I’ve got a message for Mr. Balsillie: Hit the Bricks Bud!

How does he expect the NHL to react when he has not shown willingness to play by their rules? If he wants to join their club then he is going to have to abide by their rules, even if they aren’t fair or just. Instead he has elected to try to strong-arm the league and he has selected Judge Baum to be his weapon. I see no way now that Judge Baum will rule in his favor. As intelligent a businessman as Balsillie is purported to be, I don’t understand how he thought that this tactic would be successful. I’m not even a party to this from the perspective that I am not a Coyotes fan a Canadian citizen, Judge Baum or another NHL owner but Balsillie’s actions have annoyed me.

In fact, I wonder if this is just Balsillie trying to save face in front of the citizens of Hamilton and Canadians everywhere. He must know that there is almost no way that Judge Baum will rule in his favor and basically spit in the face of the NHL by doing so. Maybe by doing this he is putting himself in position to tell the people of Hamilton “hey, I tried my best but the League is conspiring against me and doesn’t want another Canadian team.” That way he can look like a hero still and deflect attention from some of the shady tactics he is alleged to have used.

It should speak volumes when Eugene Melnyk, owner of the Ottawa Senators, speaks up and denounces Balsillie’s attempts to purchase a team and move it to Canada. Melnyk himself is a Canadian and purchased the Ottawa Senators out of bankruptcy to ensure that they were not sold and moved to the U.S. It would appear that Melnyk has the best interests of hockey in Canada at heart. He is now on record though as saying, "I clearly believe the sport of hockey is better off without him," which was a quote from a statement made by Melnyk in response to allegations made by Balsillie about the NHL’s not taking into account the character of other potential owners. Melnyk took exception to the implication (whether direct or not) that Melnyk’s character was questionable. Melnyk went on to say, "I will say in response publicly that his willingness to drag down anyone he can get his hands on along with him is discouraging and saddens me,” said Melnyk.

It should be pretty obvious to all that Mr. Balsillie has no chance of winning either the battle or the war. Instead of acting like a petulant child he should walk away from these proceedings with as much grace as possible in this situation. Mr. Balsillie, I implore you, just go away.

Torts or Renney

2009-08-24T15:01:00.001-04:00

I’m going to preface the body of this post by offering up my opinion of John Tortorella as Head Coach of the New York Rangers. I believe that for the first time since Mike Keenan was coach in 1994, we actually have someone capable of leading a team to greatness. As I watched Tortorella behind the bench last year I got the sense that he could almost will the team to victory despite the lack of talent on the roster. I’m not sure why that is exactly; it’s just a feeling. He does have a Stanley Cup on his resume but then so do other coaches whom I don’t hold in such reverence as I do with Tortorella. This is nothing against the coaches who have been here since Keenan left but I have more confidence that Torts can deliver a Stanley Cup to New York than I ever did with Ron Low, Colin Campbell, Bryan Trottier or Tom Renney.

Now that I have that off my chest, let me delve into the real purpose of the post. Since we’ve had nearly 30 games of Rangers hockey under the Tortorella administration (regular season and playoff games included) and an off-season with him at the helm, I thought it would be entertaining to compare him to his predecessor, Tom Renney. I’ll break down the styles of both coaches. Ultimately we’ll get a sense of whether or not the Rangers will have more success under Torts than they would have had Renney remained in charge.

Renney: Renney took over the head coaching position for the final handful of games preceding the lockout. Coming out of the lockout, Renney inherited a team that most pundits thought lacked the necessary talent to even challenge for a playoff spot. His only proven star was the enigmatic Jaromir Jagr who had been acquired before the lockout after a disappointing tenure in the Nation’s Capital. Sather surrounded Jagr with several fellow Czech natives like: Marty Straka, Petr Prucha, Michal Rozsival, Martin Rucinsky and Marek Malik. In net, the Rangers were counting on veteran journeyman Kevin Weekes to hold down the #1 spot and for rookie Henrik Lundqvist to handle the back-up role after coming over from Sweden.

Renney made it a point to focus on team chemistry. He took the team through a boot-camp style trip that was specifically designed to create a bond between the players on the roster. He also focused on instilling structure to the team and a defensive conscious. This approach had great success as the Rangers surprisingly qualified for the playoffs for the first time in 8 seasons. While seeing resurgence in the play of Jagr and getting outstanding play in net from rookie Lundqvist, Renney’s greatest success may have been getting Jagr to play at his highest level in years.

After a couple of years of constructing a team around Jagr, Sather switched gears and brought in veteran Centers Scott Gomez and Chris Drury. It seemed that Sather was adding more speed in Gomez while also preparing for life after Jagr by entrusting Gomez and Drury as the new faces of the franchise. Unfortunately it seemed that Sather’s desire to add more speed to the lineup wasn’t really conducive to Renney’s more laid back and conservative style of coaching. Sather was trying to re-create the Rangers in the image of the Oiler’s dynasty of the ‘80’s while Renney appeared best suited to coaching a trapping, defensive team.

Ultimately, after 3 full seasons and parts of 2 others, the Rangers parted ways with Renney despite 3 playoff berths and 2 playoff round victories. At the time of his firing, the Rangers were barely hanging onto a post-season berth and iced on of the worst teams offensively in the NHL. To compound matters, the team’s power play was among the least succesful in the NHL too.

Torts: With 20 or so games remaining in the regular season and the Rangers perilously close to missing the post season, enter John Tortorella. Tortorella was a former Rangers’ assistant who also filled in as the interim coach for four games in 1999 – 2000 after the dismissal of Ron Low. Tortorella is a fiery coach who isn’t afraid to display his emotions. He showed that trait off in the playoff series with Washington when he was suspended for Game 6 after throwing a water bottle into the stands at fans who had been harassing the Rangers bench.

Tortorella, who won the cup in 2003 – 2004 while coaching the Lightning, favors up-tempo hockey. He insists that his forwards are aggressive on the fore check and that his defensemen look to activate in the offensive zone. He is a stickler for conditioning as he encourages his players to pressure the opposition from the moment the puck is dropped. One of his biggest criticisms of the Rangers’ team last season was a lack of conditioning and stamina which affected their play late in games.

Tortorella is also not shy about criticizing his own players in the media. He had notable run-ins with Vaclav Prospal during Prospal’s two separate stints with the Lightning. It should be noted that Prospal can’t harbor much of a grudge since he just signed on for a third stint under Torts with the Rangers. It was also thought that Torts wasn’t much of a Scott Gomez fan though Torts has tried not to say anything critical of Gomez in public.

Conclusion: This is actually a no-brainer once you accept the fact that Glen Sather is hell-bent on trying to re-construct those famous Oiler teams of the eighties here in New York. He favors speed and a free-flowing style and that can be seen in many of his player acquisitions in the last several years. This type of player didn’t always mesh well with Renney’s style but will certainly fit into Tortorella’s.

Whether or not Tortorella can lead this year’s team to a better record and more playoff success than his predecessor is yet to be seen. The one thing that I am confident in though is that Tortorella is the right man for the job in New York with these Rangers.

Marleau Stripped of Captaincy, Cue the Trade Rumors

2009-08-19T01:37:00.004-04:00

Now that it was officially announced that Sharks Head Coach Scott McLellan has stripped Patrick Marleau of the captaincy of the team I expect that rumors will begin again of Marleau being shipped out of San Jose. As is usually the case with either high-profile free agents or trade targets, the Rangers will almost assuredly be linked to the potential acquisition of Marleau. However in this case I wouldn’t put much credence in those rumors, should they crop up.

Even though the Rangers do lack a true #1 Center, the Rangers are in no position to make a deal for Marleau. Several factors would work against the possibility of making any deal with the Sharks, not the least of which is the Rangers cap situation.

Currently, the Rangers sit just short of $1.2 million below the salary cap ceiling according to http://www.nhlscap.com/. Of course the Rangers still have RFA Brandon Dubinsky to get under contract before the season starts. Given that the Rangers qualified him and there are few teams that seem willing at this point to sacrifice both salary cap space and draft picks for his services, it seems likely that Dubinsky will either agree to a long term deal with the Rangers or be forced to play for the salary dictated by the qualifying offer already submitted. If the Rangers are able to convince Dubinsky to agree to a long term deal they have plenty of options in terms of demoting players to the AHL to create the space necessary to fit Dubinsky under the cap so re-signing him long-term would seem to be an appealing option.

With Drury, the acquisition of Prospal, the likely re-signing of Dubinsky and the expected promotion of Artem Anisimov, the Rangers have enough solid candidates to fill the Center positions on the team. While an upgrade would be helpful there isn’t the significant cap space needed to add any salary once Dubinsky either agrees to terms or accepts his qualifying offer. Therefore any trade to acquire a player like Marleau would have to include salary headed back the other way. Given the salary cap situation of the Sharks (they sit less than $600,000 under the cap according to http://www.nhlscap.com/ with only 9 forwards under contract) it seems unlikely that they would want to take significant salary back in a trade for Marleau.
Some have pointed to the Prospal signing as evidence that Dubinsky is unhappy with what the Rangers have offered and therefore the Rangers may move Dubinsky (and other assets) in exchange for a veteran scoring Center. I see the Prospal signing as giving Head Coach John Tortorella options with regards to his forward ranks. Prospal enjoyed some of his best seasons while playing in Tampa for Tortorella and can play both Center and the Wing.

I apologize to any Rangers fans who might have been interested in trading for Marleau but it just isn’t plausible from either the Rangers’ or the Sharks’ perspectives. Look for Sather to get Dubinsky under contract and for the Rangers to go with what they have until the players already on the roster show that they can’t hang in the NHL. If the Rangers were seriously just a top Center away from being a Stanley Cup contender then I could see them making a move like this but unfortunately that isn’t where they sit.

Rangers Add Prospal and Bring Back the Captain……..Finally

2009-08-17T01:24:00.002-04:00

Apparently Glen Sather and John Tortorella agreed with me in regards to Vinny Prospal. In a previous post I floated the idea of the Rangers looking at Prospal to address their lack of depth at the Center position. When I first mentioned the idea I met with some comments that gently reminded me that Prospal and Tortorella didn’t necessarily get along in their time together in Tampa. I rationalized the potential reunion by pointing out that Prospal enjoyed some of his best statistical seasons while playing for Torts in Tampa. The Lightning even re-acquired Prospal from the Ducks after Prospal had signed with Anaheim as a free agent. It figures that Torts liked Prospal enough that he signed off on then Tampa GM Jay Feaster’s move to bring Prospal back.
Prospal figures to fill one of the top 2 center spots with the Rangers. He may even be fortunate enough to skate with Marian Gaborik. This development could result in Prospal continuing his trend of following up a lackluster season with a good season. After recording just 45 points in 82 games, Prospal should easily be in line for 60+ if playing with Gaborik for a full season.
Obviously I like this move for the Rangers as it gives them depth up front. Brandon Dubinsky can play on the 2nd line or with Gaborik on the #1 line. Drury can slide in at a wing on any line while I still see Artem Anisimov making this team and skating on the 3rd line. Prospal isn’t a first line Center but he certainly makes the Rangers better offensively.
Another note of interest for Rangers fans; Mark Messier has been hired as a special assistant to Sather. Messier has been very vocal in his desire to get back into the game in a front office capacity. He is approaching his new position with open eyes. He realizes that despite his 25 years of playing experience he still has a lot to learn on the business side of the game. The “Moose” will approach this job with the same intensity and level of dedication that he put into his on-ice career. It’s great to see Messier back in the NHL and it’s especially good that he is back where he belongs; with the Rangers.

The Chances of Balsillie Becoming Owner of the Coyotes

2009-08-16T17:00:00.003-04:00

By Glen Miller

Most of us are familiar with the happenings in Phoenix in regards to the attempted sale of the team by owner Jerry Moyes to Research in Motion Co-CEO Jim Balsillie. Balsillie is also the founder of the website “Makeitseven.ca”, which is a website dedicated to bringing a seventh team to Canada. Balsillie has never hidden his intent to buy and ultimately move an NHL franchise to Canada; presumably to the Hamilton, Ontario market.

Of course, the NHL Board of Governors has rejected Jim Balsillie’s application for ownership contending, among other things, that Balsillie engaged in shady tactics in his previous attempts to buy an NHL team. Craig Leipold, former owner of the Nashville Predators and current owner of the Minnesota Wild, is on record at a Board of Governors’ meeting describing Balsillie’s attempts in 2007 to (in his opinion) purposely lower the value of the Predators’ franchise in an attempt to make it less desirable for the NHL to keep the team in the Nashville market.
Stories have also recently surfaced that Balsillie fueled some of the rumors that George Gillet was looking to sell the Montreal Canadiens and that he was interested in purchasing them. Gillet denied that he was looking to sell the storied franchise but ultimately did agree to sell the team back to the Molson.

Despite the rejection of his application by the NHL, Balsillie will still be allowed to participate in the auction to buy the Coyotes which concludes September 10th. Clearly Balsillie will not be outbid by anyone in his attempt to buy the Coyotes. This will set up an intriguing battle potentially between the NHL and the court system that is overseeing the Coyotes bankruptcy proceedings. Judge Redfield Baum is acting as if he has the authority to pick the next owner of the Coyotes without the approval of the NHL. Especially since he said that all bids to purchase the struggling Coyotes franchise would be accepted; even specifically mentioning that Balsillie’s bid would be considered.

If Judge Baum selects Balsillie’s bid as the winning bid then the NHL will surely challenge Baum’s authority in the matter. They will argue that since Balsillie’s application for ownership was reviewed and unanimously rejected by the NHL Board of Governors, the Judge shouldn’t disregard the wishes of the league. Already the other major professional sports leagues (NBA, MLB and NFL) have come out in support of the NHL’s attempt to secure an ownership group willing to keep the team in Phoenix and thus be able to continue to exercise control over the process of ownership approval.

I can’t blame the NHL or its current owners for feeling this way. The NHL has to fairly represent the business interests of all 30 member teams in the league and not just the interests of one. That mentality is crucial to the long term success of the league. Of course having a team like the Coyotes losing $30 million annually isn’t beneficial to the other teams in the league as it could certainly affect the franchise values of all teams in the league. However the NHL can’t simply allow anyone with the money and the desire to own a team, join the exclusive fraternity of NHL Ownership. The NHL has to be concerned with how their owners conduct business. They have to act on a united front in their dealings with the Player’s Union and other professional leagues (such as the KHL). A potential owner who has already demonstrated disdain for how the fraternity operates and a willingness to act in his own best interests is not likely to win the Board of Governors over.

Additionally, the NHL has other factors to consider when teams are up for sale and/or relocation. The League has already had issues with part owners (William “Boots” Del Baggio and Len Barrie) either struggling to meet their financial commitments or with just flat perpetrating fraud in order to obtain their finances. They also have to consider to whose territory a relocated team will be entering and how much financial damage that could potentially do to the team already located in that market or territory.

I can certainly understand the reservations the Board of Governors hold for Balsillie. A number of reports out of Nashville and even Phoenix pertaining to some of his tactics in his negotiations to buy those teams have cast a shadow on his business ethics. Even if Balsillie’s offer trumps that of his primary competition, Jerry Reinsdorf, given their respective reputations in the sports world, Reinsdorf is a far more appealing candidate for owner.

I would be highly upset if Judge Baum overlooked all of the questions surrounding Balsillie’s tactics in this and previous attempts to purchase an NHL team. It shouldn’t always be about who has the deepest pockets or is willing to spend the most. Credibility should be the most important criteria when considering potential owners. The NHL has already goofed on several instances and can’t afford to make another poor choice. Reinsdorf has a track record of building successful organizations and I feel that he should be the one entrusted with the future of the Coyotes team whether he elects to keep the team in Phoenix or even if he wanted to move the team. For me it isn’t a question of whether the team should move or not; it’s about installing the right person as owner to make that decision.

A Quick Look at the 2009-2010 NYI - Part II

2009-08-12T23:19:00.003-04:00

Today I will be taking a quick look at lines three and four for the upcoming 2009-2010 NHL season. If you haven’t already seen lines one and two, be sure to check below!

Line 3:

Left Wing: Jeff Tambellini, Center: Frans Nielsen, Right Wing: Blake Comeau

Tambellini: Under Ted Nolan, Tambellini failed to make any impact at the NHL level, and was constantly being demoted back to AHL duty. After the firing of Nolan, and the hiring of Gordon, it became apparent that Tambellini was finally going to be given the opportunity to perform at the NHL level for a full season. After a somewhat disheartening season, Tambellini is going to get his final opportunity to prove himself with the big boys. I truly believe he has the ability to become a goal-scorer, however, he will need to add some weight in order to bump around with the big boys. His shot is world class, as you can tell by the three astounding shootout snipes he had from well-behind the hash-marks against elite goaltenders such as Marc-Andre Fleury and Henrik Lundqvist, however, he needs to develop that confidence he has in the AHL. I truly hope he proves his worth, because he has the ability to be a great player.

Nielsen: I am a tremendous Nielsen fan. After watching him play last season, I truly feel that Islanders have a great center in Nielsen who is great both on the offensive side of the game, as well as the defensive side of the game. Gifted with great skating ability and speed, Nielsen also has a great vision of the game and has no problem skating the puck into the opponent’s zone. His point production was rather decent last year, up until the dirty hit that was laid upon him by Mottau of the New Jersey Devils. If Nielsen is able to stay in the line-up for a full NHL season, there is no reason why he won’t be able to put up at least 50 points, especially considering he will be manning an important position on the second power-play unit. I hope he continues to develop at the current pace, as he will be a very successful player for the Islanders, and an important piece to the rebuild.

Comeau: Finally, Comeau has signed on to the Islanders for two more years at a very affordable rate. Comeau is a big player in the mold of a power forward who is also fortunate enough to be a fairly decent skater. If Comeau wants to become a great player in this league, he needs to learn to drive the net rather than spinning off and looking for a pass. He has the frame to do so, now he just needs to grow into his frame. Comeau has the ability to develop into a second-line player; however, he will be put on the third line for most of the season because of the players ahead of him on the depth chart. If he plays up to his potential, and with a full season in the NHL, Comeau should be able to score fifteen or more goals. Let us hope that he finally learns his niche on the team, and develops his frame for the rigorous season.

Line 4:

Left Wing: Jon Sim, Center: Richard Park, Right Wing: Tim Jackman

Sim: With one year remaining on his absurd three-year deal, Jon Sim will be given the opportunity to prove himself once more as an NHL caliber player. After being assigned to Bridgeport for the remainder of the 2008-2009 season, Sim easily became their best player and their most lethal goal scorer. That is obviously not saying much for an NHL caliber player who simply just lost his ability to compete in the NHL. It is the hope of the Islanders that Sim is able to drop a few pounds and come into training camp in good enough shape to compete in Gordon’s high-tempo style of play. For a guy who has the ability to score more than fifteen goals in a season, it is the hope of Islander fans that he returns in great shape. On top of that, Sim rarely shy’s away from defending his teammates, and considering the Islanders’ lack of fighting ability, he might be pleasantly welcome.

Park: A heart-and-soul player that you simply cannot dislike, Park has the ability to move up and down lines and compete in any position that any coach asks of him. He is a talented and speedy, but small player who is one of the best penalty killers on the team, and still can manage to put back a few goals per season. Although his talent dictates him to be a third or fourth liner, Park is the kind of player that can step up his game when necessary and fill in for any injured player. As the anchor for the fourth line, we can expect the same heart-and-soul; speedy play from Park this year and every year he competes in the NHL.

Jackman: Signed to another one-year, one-way deal, Jackman is going to be a great presence on the fourth line this upcoming season. After showing up last season in top shape, it can be expected that Jackman will further improve his physical abilities in preparation for this upcoming season at the NHL level. He is a great skater, a player who doesn’t mind to throw his weight around, and every now and then he can even drop the gloves with some of the middleweights. While he would like to score a little bit more each year, Jackman understands and relishes his role with the New York Islanders. It is a lock for him to be the fourth line right wing, and I feel that he will do a great job at his position. Furthermore, as someone who can play the penalty kill, we may see him prove his worth even more this year. Best of luck to him.

That’s all for today’s quick look into the third and fourth lines for the 2009-2010 NHL season. Be sure to check back soon for a quick look at the Islanders defensive corps. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to shoot me an email at IslesNet@Gmail.Com.

-Justin M.

GVS - Goals Versus Salary Stat

2009-08-12T17:09:00.005-04:00

by Glen Miller

The more that I surf the web looking for the newest in Advanced Statistics in Hockey, the more I realize how much I really like the Puck Prospectus website and the Behind the Net website. The people at those sites are creative and just plain brilliant. The latest and greatest was offered up by Robert Vollman on Puck Prospectus and it is called Goals Versus Salary (GVS). In case you wish to take a gander at it for yourself, here is the link: www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=236.

What GVS attempts to do in a nutshell is compare a player’s on-ice contributions (measured in Goals Versus Threshold – GVT) in relation to the player’s actual salary minus the approximate salary of a replacement level player. Baseball Prospectus has a similar stat in use for baseball called MORP (Money Over Replacement Player) that compares a player’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with his actual salary. This has the potential to be the most useful of the advanced statistics that I have found. Using this simple mathematical formula it becomes possible to not only see if a player is performing up to his commensurate salary but you can also determine what a fair salary would be for any player given his on-ice contributions.

The math of this formula is very simple assuming you already have access to the player’s GVT rating. For the purpose of this example I will use Marian Gaborik, currently of the Rangers and formerly of the Minnesota Wild:

Step 1. Take the Player’s actual salary ($7.5 million) and subtract from it the approximate cost of a replacement player or minor league/minimum salary player ($500,000). This leaves us with a figure of $7 million.

Step 2. Multiply the remainder by 3 - 7 * 3 = 21 (an explanation of why the number three is used will be offered further on in this post). Marian Gaborik’s GVT should have been +21 last season but unfortunately for him and for the Wild, it was only +5.6.

Step 3. Subtract the actual GVT (+5.6) by the GVT rating that he should have posted based on his salary (+21). This leaves you with -15.4 which was Marian Gaborik’s GVS rating for last season.

Now, a quick explanation of why we multiplied the remainder from Step 1 one by 3 as we did in Step 2. If we had a full roster (20 players) of replacement level players who all made the approximate league minimum salary ($500,000) our team payroll would be $10 million. The average payroll last season was approximately $50 million which leaves us with a difference of $40 million in payroll allocated for above replacement level production. This is the same thing we did in Step 1 of the GVS formula. The average GVT rating per team last season was around +120. If we divide the average team GVT rating (+120) by the $40 million left over in the above replacement level production payroll, we are left with 3 goals for every $1 million. That’s why we use three in that step.

Back to Step 3 for a moment. GVT is based in part using statistics more likely to be accrued while actually playing; like goals, assists and such. Thus if a player is injured and misses games then he is likely going to finish with a lower GVT and GVS rating than if he had played the whole year. This is the case with Gaborik who only appeared in 17 contests last season. Had he played a full season, he would have scored a +27 GVT rating given his pace through 17 games. That would have changed his GVS rating to a +6.

I actually don’t have a problem with the GVS stat reflecting poorly on players who miss time due to injuries or what have you. A player who is not on the ice is not producing and therefore not earning his salary. The purpose of this stat is to determine a player’s value in relation to his on-ice performance. This seems to work perfectly toward that end.

Let’s look at the 10 worst GVS ratings for last season to see what they may tell us:

Player Salary (in millions) GVT GVS
Mats Sundin $8.6 1.6 -22.7
Daniel Briere $8.0 4.3 -18.2
Wade Redden $8.0 4.4 -18.1
Joe Sakic $6.0 0.6 -15.9
Dany Heatley $10.0 13.0 -15.5
Marian Gaborik $7.5 5.6 -15.4
Brad Richards $7.8 6.6 -15.3
Sergei Zubov $5.4 -.04 -15.0
Mike Fisher $6.0 2.1 -14.4
Scott Gomez $8.0 8.2 -14.3

I’d have to agree that every player listed on the chart above severely underperformed expectations either because of injury or plain old poor performance. It’s also scary to realize the connection a lot of these players have to the New York Rangers. Two (Redden and Gomez suited up for the Rangers last season. Two more (Redden and Gaborik) will skate for the team this year. Mats Sundin was hotly pursued by Glen Sather last season before he ultimately signed with Vancouver. Richards and Heatley have both been rumored to be trade targets of Sather at various points this off-season. That means that of the 10 players with the worst GVS ratings last season, 6 have either been Rangers or were targeted by Glen Sather to be Rangers at some point. I’m thinking that I need to email this post to Glen Sather so maybe he can use this to help him properly gauge a player’s real value before next summer’s UFA spending spree.

One suggestion I have for improving this stat would be to weigh the player’s contributions versus his salary cap hit rather than his actual salary number. In the cases of Dany Heatley and Mike Fisher it would make a difference. Heatley earned $10 million in salary but because the contract is for a total of 6 years and $45 million, his annual cap hit is only $7.5. The same applies to Fisher who was paid $6 million but whose contract is for 5 years and $21 million or a $4.2 million annual cap hit. Using the cap numbers instead of the actual salaries would mean this:

Player Salary GVT GVS
Heatley $7.5 13.0 -8.0
Fisher $4.2 2.1 -9.0

Heatley’s GVS improved by 7.5 points while Fisher’s improved by 5.4.

Another thing to consider is it is natural that younger players with lower salaries and ascending statistical production are more likely to have better GVS ratings than older players whose salaries are higher but whose skill levels are in decline. Too many GM’s still reward veteran players with expensive contracts that pay them exorbitant salaries well into the declining phases of their careers. This stat unfortunately doesn’t predict a player’s future performance and should therefore only be used by GM’s who are seeking to establish the true worth of a player already in their prime or just entering it. That way they aren’t paying a player on a long term contract for what they were worth 3 or 4 years ago instead of what they would be worth at that time. The object is to pay less money for more production as often as possible.

Here is a list of the top 10 finishers from last season in the GVS category; let’s see if the chart backs up my statements about youth being served with the GSV stat.

Player Team Salary GVT GVS
Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh 0.98 23.4 +22.0
Zach Parise New Jersey 2.50 24.2 +18.2
David Krejci Boston 0.83 18.3 +17.3
Nicklas Backstrom Washington 0.85 17.4 +16.4
Phil Kessel Boston 0.85 15.3 +14.3
Johan Franzen Detroit 1.15 15.2 +13.3
Devin Setoguchi San Jose 0.85 13.9 +12.9
Loui Eriksson Dallas 1.50 15.5 +12.5
Anton Babchuk Carolina 1.00 13.7 +12.2
David Booth Florida 0.68 12.3 +11.8

Scrolling down this list you’ll find that 7 of the 10 players listed just completed either their 2nd or 3rd NHL season and thus were still playing on their entry level contracts. The other 3 just finished with their 4th season and none have been eligible to cash in on the big UFA bucks. This chart emphasizes exactly the point I made in the previous paragraph that younger players with some NHL experience are likely to have higher GSV ratings than older players with declining production.

I find this particular stat to be extremely useful in determining which teams are getting more bang for their buck; especially when competing in an environment dominated by the salary cap and the limitations it puts on a team’s budget. It is critical that GM’s (yes, this means you Glen Sather) do a better job of analyzing the real worth of players and managing their assets more like an everyday business does. The days of traditional player analysis is at an end.

The more research that I do the more I see that Statistical Analysis in hockey is making great strides almost daily. GVS is yet another example of the brilliance of some of the minds working to modernize the way in which hockey teams are run and hockey players are evaluated.

The Little Ball of Hate to Make His Return?

2009-08-11T16:28:00.001-04:00

By Glen Miller

I’m sure many of you have read that former All-Star Theo Fleury has shown up at camp with the Flames and has expressed a desire to return to the NHL. The NHL has already said that Fleury will need to complete the substance abuse program he was entered into when he walked away from the game some 4 years ago. Since he can’t participate with a team until he has been cleared by the NHL and the substance abuse program doctors, it is unlikely that Fleury would break camp with an NHL team as he won’t have enough time to complete the program and then win a roster spot in camp.

After competing last season in a senior league, Fleury has concluded that he is fit enough at age 41 to play in the NHL again. He hired a personal trainer to help him get back into top shape and has already sent a letter to the NHL informing them of his desire to play in the league again. Fleury was one of the best players in the NHL for a number of years until his substance abuse issues caught up with his play. Fleury has reportedly been sober for 4 years now.

While I commend Theo both on his sobriety and his competitive spirit, I don’t think he will be any more successful in his comeback bid than Claude Lemieux was last year. Theo has already overcome his lack of size to enjoy a highly successful career at this level and I would never count him out of anything entirely. However, any athlete will tell you that it is almost impossible to re-enter the competitive arena after a four-year layoff and have success; even at a younger age than Theo.

I’m sure that a team will take a flier on Theo and allow him to skate with their AHL or ECHL entry on a tryout for a period to see if he has anything left. The Sharks went so far as to send Lemieux over to an affiliate team they have in China before offering Claude the opportunity to play in the AHL. After moderate success in the AHL, Lemieux didn’t contribute much to the Sharks season and has since retired for good.

Fleury has said that his career didn’t end the way he wished and that is the motivation for his comeback bid. I wish him the best of luck but in all likelihood his skills have diminished to the point where he won’t be able to legitimately help an NHL team. This is a Hollywood story that won’t have a happy ending.

The Hockey News Picks Rangers 13th in East

2009-08-10T20:43:00.002-04:00

By Glen Miller

Every year The Hockey News publishes their yearbook which includes their predictions on the final placements of each team within their conference for the upcoming season. This year they are posting on their website, http://thehockeynews.com, their predictions one place at a time. Needless to say I was quite surprised that they picked the Rangers to finish 13^th in the East. Look, I thoroughly enjoy reading their preview magazine and the website. I think that Adam Proteau is one of the best hockey writers out there. However I have to emphatically disagree with their prediction of the Rangers finishing 13^th in the Eastern Conference!!!

First let’s look at the Rangers: obviously they have radically changed their forward lineup by subtracting Scott Gomez, Nik Zherdev, Nik Antropov, Blair Betts, Fredrik Sjostrom, Lauri Korpikoski and Colton Orr while replacing them with Marian Gaborik, Chris Higgins, Ales Kotalik, Enver Lisin and Donald Brashear. They also saw veteran defensemen Derek Morris and Paul Mara leave via free agency. The team is expecting last year’s Hobey Baker winner as the best player in the NCAA last year, Matt Gilroy, to step in and assume a spot out of camp while also holding a spot for another rookie from an impressive crop of young blue liners. The King is back in net and as long as he stays healthy the Rangers will be strong in net.

Granted, figuring out what to expect from this team isn’t easy; frankly I’d rather take a shot at explaining where babies come from to a bunch of little kids. The Rangers do have the components up front to have a balanced attack especially if a couple of the younger players step it up. Of the players expected to skate a regular shift up front with the team, 5 (Drury, Gaborik, Callahan, Higgins and Kotalik) have scored 20+ goals in a season within the last couple of years. Sean Avery has a season in which he scored 18 goals and was on pace to score 16 last season if he had played a full schedule. Young players like Artem Anisimov, Enver Lisin and Brandon Dubinsky can realistically be expected to challenge the 20 goal mark in the coming years.

Defensively, they should be as good (I know, good is a relative term) as last year despite the losses of Mara and Morris just because I can’t imagine both Rozsival and Redden can be as bad as they were last year. Gilroy has the potential to be a solid two-way defender and at 24 and with his college experience, he should be able to step right in without missing much of a beat.

The King is the King and has deservedly been a Vezina trophy candidate for 3 of his 4 years in the league. He seems to slump for a stretch each year and it will be important for the team to get quality starts (and more of them) from backup Steve Valiquette; especially since Lundqvist will likely be the starter for Team Sweden at the Olympcs this year. The Rangers can not afford for Lundqvist to break down or wear out during the season.

John Tortorella will also get a full training camp to work with the team on improving their stamina and endurance. It seemed as if the squad would start to tire late in games last season after Torts took over. I also have a lot of faith in Tortorella’s coaching. I am confident that in a couple of years he can get this team deep into the playoffs.

I think it’s fair to say at this point that the team should be as good this year as they were last year. It’s not as if they won the President’s trophy and/or lost a lot of high end contributors from last year’s team. So if this team is as good as last years and The Hockey News predicts a 13^th place finish then obviously a lot of the teams that finished behind the Rangers improved, right?? Really, where? I don’t see it. Here’s a breakdown of the teams that finished behind the Rangers in last year’s standings and whether or not they have improved themselves at all.

15. Islanders – They made the right move in drafting Tavares but in order to make up the 34 points they finished behind the Rangers they need more than that and the signing of 2 steady, if unspectacular, net minders.

14. Lightning – The Lightning have improved their greatest weakness, the defense, by adding solid vets like Matt Walker and Mattias Ohlund via UFA. But combine an uncertain ownership situation and an unproven coach, is it realistic to believe they can improve by 29 points over last year?

13. Thrashers - The Thrashers made a solid addition by picking up veteran D Pavel Kubina from Toronto. He is expensive at $5 million but only has one year left on his deal and the cost in terms of trade wasn’t too high. The team also added UFA Nik Antropov so they should be more potent offensively. However, their goaltending is still a big question mark and they would have to depend too much on young players like Bogosian and Little to expect them to improve by 19 points.

12. Toronto – The Leafs’ biggest move was bringing in Brian Burke to oversee their rebuild. He added UFA’s Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin to an already solid defense corps. Toronto is still lacking in offensive ability and by adding the toughness that they did this off-season will probably be short-handed a lot this season. That was not a situation in which they excelled at this past season. Goaltending is also an issue unless Toskala steps up or Gustavsson proves to be the real deal.

11. Senators – Sure they added the enigmatic Alexei Kovalev to boost their offense but face the likelihood of having to deal top line LW Dany Heatley. Right now the suitors aren’t exactly falling all over themselves to give up the farm for Dany boy so the chance remains that the distraction known as Dany Heatley will still be a member of the Senators come opening night. That situation won’t make it easy to improve upon last year’s result.

10. Buffalo – Lost Jaroslav Spacek and replaced him with steady vet Steve Montador but have done little else to date this off-season. They would need an injury-free season from Tim Connolly and some productive seasons from young players to move up into a playoff spot in my opinion. Ryan Miller also has to be healthy and more consistent.

9. Florida – They lost their best player in Jay Bouwmeester and have added nothing of real significance to off-set that loss. Unless one or more of the underachieving group of forwards (Horton, Weiss, Olesz) or youngsters like Michal Frolik and Shawn Matthias are ready to step up then Florida will struggle to be as good as last year.

Additionally, two teams that finished ahead of the Rangers in the standings, the Hurricanes and the Devils, did little to upgrade their rosters this off-season and appear poised to potentially fall out of the playoffs entirely. The Canes only finished 2 points ahead of the Rangers and besides replacing injured vet Frank Kaberle with vet Aaron Ward on defense, the Canes have done very little to improve their roster. I am also not convinced that Cam Ward is a top notch starting goalie in the NHL. I can see the Canes falling a few spots and missing the playoffs this year.

For the Rangers, who finished 7^th in the East last year, to drop all the way to 13^th, 6 teams would have to jump them in the standings. Of the group mentioned above I only see 1 or 2 teams that would seem able to make that leap (Tampa and maybe Toronto). That also assumes other teams like the Canes or Devils don’t fall in the standings also. I just don’t see why THN picked the Rangers to place that low in the conference.

A Quick Look at the 2009-2010 NYI

2009-08-10T11:31:00.001-04:00

With the great success of the Lighthouse Conference past us, it’s time for the speculative fun to begin. Here at New York Hockey Net, I can tell you that the minds are drying with topics to write about as the hottest days of August arrive. Here, and everywhere around the league, it is a sure-fire bet that you will start seeing speculative pieces about the thirty respective teams and their line-ups for the upcoming season.

That being said, I am here today to provide a quick view into how I feel the Islanders will look come opening night against the Pittsburgh Penguins in terms of line-up. While Garth Snow may not be done with roster moves, I will utilize the current roster at hand to provide my opinion of how I feel the Islanders will look.

Today I will be analyzing the first and second line for the upcoming season, and the upcoming blog will be taking a look at lines three and four. The last blog, which will be up by weeks’ end, will take a glance into the Islanders defense. If you have any disagreements, please give me your take on how you feel the lines will look.

Line 1:

Left Wing: John Tavares, Center: Doug Weight, Right Wing: Trent Hunter

Tavares: I wholeheartedly believe that the Islanders, like the Pittsburgh Penguins did with Crosby, will play John Tavares on the wing to at least start the season. Although tremendously talented from the offensive blue line in, Tavares still has plenty of work to do on the rest of his game. To be fair, it is hard for any player to jump straight into the defensive side of the game as an NHL center, and we must give John the opportunity to develop properly. He will do very well playing wing, and Doug Weight will be a great mentor, and a great player passing him the puck.

Weight: There is no doubt that Weight will be the number one center next year. After an exceptional season that was cut somewhat short by several injuries, I believe Weight will return to his great form and be a great player for Tavares to develop under. Besides his speed and solid 5 on 5 player, Weight will contribute nicely on the power play as well.

Hunter: Somewhat of a surprise to be on the first line, however, I think Gordon will make sure that he provides some sort of physical presence on a line with Tavares. Known for his solid work along the boards and a grittier edge to his game, Hunter will be a great compliment to a line that features a pure passer and a pure goal scorer. Besides the gritty part of his game, Hunter can also knock back 20-plus a season when given the opportunity. If you know of a more physical Islander in the line-up with the skill to score some goals, please let me know.

Line 2:

Left Wing Sean Bergenheim, Center: Joshua Bailey, Right Wing: Kyle Okposo

Bergenheim: I really liked what I saw coming from Bergenheim last season when he entered into his little hot streak. Although very slow at developing, I do believe Bergenheim has a tremendous amount of talent, and he has second-line winger written all over him. If he can put on a few more pounds, work on his touch a little, and continue hitting everything he says with his phenomenal forecheck, the Islanders will have a great second-line left wing. There is no reason he can’t score twenty goals, and now he just needs to prove it to himself. With a growing playmaker like Bailey in the middle, he will be given more opportunity to score.

Bailey: For those of you who have not seen Bailey at his numerous public appearances this summer, the kid has easily put on at least 10-15 pounds in muscle. He looks much bigger than he did last year, and it looks like he will be able to endure the physical abuse a player takes in the NHL. With a great set of hands and vision, Bailey is an ideal playmaker in the mold of Doug Weight. After getting one year in the NHL under his belt, it will be a pleasure to watch him play an increased role in the Islanders rebuild next to Bergenheim and Okposo. If all goes well, Bailey could put up at least 30 assists this year, with the potential for much more in future seasons. I would also keep the expectations for his goal output in the 10-15 range, as he still needs to prove he knows when to shoot and when to pass.

Okposo: Another one of the gem’s of the rebuild, Okposo showed his ability to break a game open with his skill and power last season. After another year of experience, Okposo will be coming to Islanders camp ready to prove he is the best forward on the Islanders, and he may very well do so. Gifted with a large frame, good skating, and a great shot, Okposo will be a member of the rebuild for a long time. After last year’s offensive production and demonstration of skill, it is safe to say the Islanders will be relying on him to score at least 25 goals this season. Anything less would be somewhat of a disappointment, and anything more would show he is really growing exceptionally well. With a place on the first power play unit all but secured next to Tavares, Weight, Bailey, and Streit, it is safe to say he will be given plenty of opportunity to put up big points.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for the update on lines three and four. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to email them to me at IslesNet@Gmail.Com.

-Justin M.

Still Some Useful Pieces on the Market

2009-08-08T18:31:00.001-04:00

By Glen Miller

Even though things have slowed down terribly in the hockey world as far as UFA signings and trades go, it only takes a spark to set off some genuine interest again. I’m sure that most of us have talked of our favorite team’s off-seasons to date ad nauseam. We all have a good idea of where our team is strong and where it is weak. For me at least, there have been a couple of recent moves that have made available a couple of potentially useful players for a team like the New York Rangers and this has sparked my interest.

Look, I try very hard to be a realist. I understand that the Rangers are not a strong Stanley Cup contender. As the roster is currently constituted, the Rangers are likely going to be in a battle with the New Jersey Devils for 3^rd place in the Atlantic. Given the strength of the Eastern Conference, that may translate to a 5^th or 6^th seed at best. Clearly Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are both better than the Rangers at this point in time. Looking at the Rangers available cap space, their roster and the names of the players available I don’t see any quick-fix additions that would turn this squad into anything more than what they are now.

However, come playoff time, almost anything can happen. If a team with the stellar goaltending that the Rangers have gets hot at the right time, they can certainly go deep into the playoffs. While there may not be anyone available to the Rangers right now to help us finish in the upper echelon of the East, there are a couple of players that could help increase our chances of making the playoffs and potentially going deep into them.

As presently constructed, the Rangers roster has two glaring holes to me; Center and Defense. Chris Drury has never been a number 1 Center and is probably better off as either the #2 or as a Wing on a scoring line. Brandon Dubinsky may not have the top-shelf offensive skill to be a true #1 either. He’s a gamer and will do anything to help the team succeed though so he could fill in as a #1. Conceivably, rookie Artem Anisimov could develop into a more ideal top pivot but it would be expecting a lot for him to perform at that level this year. Certainly the need for an experienced, offensive-minded pivot does exist on this roster.

On Defense, the Rangers have 2 vacancies among their top 6 after letting both Derek Morris and Paul Mara exit via free agency. Last year’s Hobey Baker award winner, Matt Gilroy, is expected to fill one of those slots. The other slot will be filled from a pool of candidates that include: Bobby Sanguineti, Michael Del Zotto, Michael Sauer, Corey Potter, or Iikka Heikinen. There are several good prospects on this list and Gilroy looked good at the prospect camp but remember how poorly Rozsival and Redden played last year. Essentially, the Rangers have only 2 returning defensemen that performed well at the NHL level last season; Marc Staal and Dan Girardi. If Rozsival and/or Redden don’t ramp up their games this season and even if a couple of the rookies step in and perform well, team defense will still be a weakness.

It’s possible that our solution(s) just hit the open market last week as the Tampa Bay Lightning bought out the final 3 years on the contract of C Vinny Prospal and the Carolin Hurricanes did the same with the final year of D Frankie Kaberle. Since both players will receive at least a portion of the salaries in their bough out contracts, they may be amenable to signing short-term, low-cost deals with new clubs.

Prospal, in particular, is an interesting player. He seems to alternate good seasons with bad seasons and if that holds true then he is due for a good year. Regardless of his inconsistencies, Prospal has averaged 0.77 points-per-game in the 4 seasons since the lock-out (91 goals, 160 assists, and 251 points in 325 games). He has also appeared in no fewer than 80 contests in each of the last seven seasons. Prospal’s On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- rating for the last two seasons were -0.75 in 2008-2009 and +0.83 in 2007-2008. The low rating from last year is somewhat scary given how poor the entire team as a whole was. However given his track record, it’s a good possibility Prospal will rebound. Another factor to keep in mind is that Prospal had some of his best seasons playing for Rangers Head Coach Jon Tortorella in Tampa, including the Stanley Cup season. It would seem worth calling Prospal’s agent to see if Vinny would like to set-up for Marian Gaborik next season.

Kaberle might be a tougher sell as he is 35 years old and has had injury problem in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Over that time, Kaberle has missed 109 of a possible 246 games. As recently as 2005-2006 though, Kaberle recorded a line of 6g – 38a – 44pts in 77 games for the Carolina Hurricanes. He has never been a physical player but has been a solid puck mover throughout his career. Given the Rangers hopeful reliance on returns to respectability by Wade Reden and Michal Rozsival and the expected addition of two rookies to the lineup, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a reliable vet like Kaberle around if Sather’s plans/hopes do not come to fruition.

As I stated earlier in this post; neither Prospal nor Kaberle can be expected to carry this team anywhere but either addition could make this team better and could help this squad qualify for the playoffs more easily. Once in the playoffs…….. anything can happen.

A Disclaimer and an Introduction

2009-08-06T08:04:00.002-04:00

By Glen Miller

While conducting research for the Statistical Analysis in the NHL blog which was posted in July, I became acutely interested in the potential of this “science” as it pertains to player evaluation. Statistical Analysis is now fairly prevalent in the baseball world as a number of General Managers either have backgrounds in the field and/or have started departments within their respected front offices dedicated to statistical research.

As I stated in the Statistical Analysis blog, there was far more activity in the NHL in this field than I expected. I mentioned several sites in that post but have since found many more. Included in these other sites are some new “advanced statistics” that I plan on dissecting to see how they play out versus more traditional player evaluation methods.

First off, I’d like to issue a quick disclaimer to the folks reading my posts; I am NOT advocating for statistical analysis to replace traditional scouting methods as the primary tool in player evaluation. I do believe that statistical analysis can become a valuable tool to help augment the traditional methods of player evaluation though.

Statistical analysis IS a science. As of yet, no one has either developed or claimed to have developed, a stat or a formula which will correctly predict or evaluate any player’s value or performance to an accuracy level of 100%. Everyday intelligent people carefully consider and debate the merits of certain stats and their actual relevance to on-ice success. By no means is the “science” perfect; however that doesn’t mean that the research should be dismissed out-of-hand because it doesn’t conform to the more traditional methods of player evaluation. Hockey is a game; the NHL is a business. Operating a successful organization in the NHL (especially in today’s salary cap landscape) requires the willingness to use modern business techniques. Statistical analyses can be one of those techniques.

Statistical analysis is not only about evaluating stats like goals and assists and On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- rating, it’s also about properly managing assets. A lot of Managers seem to just pluck numbers out of the air when it comes to offering contracts to free agents. With the amount of money that we’ve seen thrown around recklessly at free agents it is clear that NHL Managers could use every tool at their disposal to properly value players and determine what they should be paid.

Some old-school hockey fans believe that statistics don’t make winning teams and they are unwilling to even consider the possible value of sabremetrics to the NHL and its teams. They point to team chemistry and heart as intangible elements that go into building a Stanley Cup contender. To that I have to agree whole-heartedly. But just the fact that those qualities are “intangible” and can not be quantified makes the art of building a winning team that much more difficult if you don’t look at some of the advanced statistics as well. Statistical analysis only evaluates the tangible aspects of players and teams and what makes them successful on the ice.

The chances of building a Stanley Cup winning team around 20 nice, hard working guys that all get along is just about nil. Look, the Rangers team of last season reportedly got along famously and liked each other and was willing to go to “battle” for one another. Where exactly did that get them? Booted out of the first round of the playoffs after a lackluster, up-and-down regular season, that’s where.

Don’t get me wrong, chemistry is a key component of on-ice success. Unfortunately there is no book or manual that tells you which players will combine to form the perfect “chemistry” that will lead to success on the ice. It’s a crap shoot and 29 Managers every year get it wrong. Statistical analysis is math and math doesn’t lie; it can only be misinterpreted.

Alright, I guess that was a little longer than I anticipated. I only ask of those that read these pieces to keep an open mind as I will also. I expect that we will find holes and flaws with most, if not all, of the existing “advanced statistics. Though this science is very new to the sport of hockey and is somewhat controversial, I feel that this topic has the ability to inspire a lot of interesting discussion and that’s my main goal here.

That’s it for my disclaimer; now it’s on to the introduction. Today I’d like to introduce an “advanced statistic” referred to as a “Corsi Rating” or a Corsi Number”. I found this stat on BehindtheNet.com. The Corsi Rating or Number is named after current Buffalo Sabres Goaltending Coach, Jim Corsi. Apparently he devised his rating system as an alternative to +/- and the Sabres use it in its evaluation of players. I can’t tell you exactly how long the Sabres have used this rating but the earliest references I have found were from November of 2007 on hockeynumbers.blogspot.com and an October 2008 post on Japersrink.com.

Basically Corsi’s rating is the difference between the number of shots DIRECTED toward the offensive goal versus the number of shots DIRECTED toward the defensive goal while in 5-on-5 skating situations and excluding empty net shots. The key word in that definition is DIRECTED and it includes all shots that are on net, miss the net or are blocked. I would guess that the rationale behind this stat is that the larger the discrepancy between shots directed for and against, the more that team is controlling the play.

Let’s look at the top five skaters with at least 75 games played from 2008-2009 in terms of highest Corsi Rating per 60 minutes of ice time:

David Moss CGY +23.8

Pavel Datsyuk DET +23

Henrik Zetterberg DET +20.1

Alexander Ovechkin WSH +19

Mikael Samuelsson DET +18.9

The interesting thing I notice is that there are 3 Red Wings players in the top 5. In fact 7 of the top 9 are Red Wings. Not surprisingly the Red Wings led the NHL in Shots on Goal during the regular season with an average of 36.2 per game. Washington was second with 33.5 while Calgary was eighth finishing with an average of 32.2 Shots on Goal per game. While Shots on Goal varies some from the criteria of Shots Directed on Goal used by the Corsi rating it still shows to be a good indicator of which teams have players finish with higher Corsi Ratings.

The entire Corsi Rating System is more complex than the simple Corsi Number. According to an article posted on the Irreverent Oiler Fans page on vhockey.blogspot.com, it actually goes into more detail than just the number itself. It also includes information about which part of the net the puck is shot into and how many crossbars or goal posts are hit. I don’t know how the Sabres factor that information into an equation or how that helps them evaluate a player but apparently they do.

I guess if I had to judge the merits of the Corsi Number my first complaint would be that not all shots (whether they end up on net or not) are created equal. Most hockey analysts prefer scoring chances to shots on goal to determine which team controlled the play offensively. Scoring chances are of course, shots or opportunities in which an offensive player has a better than even chance of scoring a goal. They can also account for shots that hit the cross bar or the goal post or just miss the net in some cases. Those shots aren’t recognized as shots on goal but they can still count as quality scoring chances.

Another part of this stat that can be misleading is the fact that it doesn’t take into account the strength of the opponents or the weaknesses of your teammates when used to evaluate individual players. Granted, the idea is that over the course of a full season, all teams will have faced a fairly equal quality of opponents. The problem lies with the players who miss time due to injury or what have you. They may play a much different quality of opponents if they’ve missed a tough or easy stretch of opponents than someone else. This statistic, like most, loses some of its luster unless applied to players who play a minimum number of games which is why I only analyzed players with a minimum of 75 games played.

All-in-all, while I think this stat is better than the traditional +/- figure, I don’t think it is nearly enough in and of itself to properly evaluate the value of an individual player’s contributions. Hockey is a team sport and a player can be affected either positively or negatively by their teammate’s performance too much. I also prefer scoring chances as an indicator of offensive performance better than shots on goal or shots directed toward goal.

That’s it for today folks. Join me next time for another exciting piece breaking down another advanced statistic or comparing players using an advanced statistic. Please let me know your thoughts on the Corsi Number specifically or advanced statistics in general.

News and Notes From Around the NHL

2009-08-05T19:16:00.000-04:00

By Glen Miller

Well, I have returned from my daughter’s softball tournament in the lovely city of Lancaster, California. She was recently brought up to a 16-and-under All-Star team after playing the season with her 14U team and as one of the younger players she didn’t get a lot of play time. She did start behind the plate once and got a couple of garbage innings in a blow-out win. Let me tell you though, for a boy born and raised on the coast in North San Diego County, it is not fun to sit around in 100+ degree weather. My daughter’s team did finish 5^th out of 27 teams in the ASA Western National Tournament so the trip was certainly worth it.

While I was gone I checked in with the website and saw very little activity. While disappointing it is also understandable. Let’s face it; there just isn’t much going on that warrants writing about. There are a few stories that caught my attention so I thought I’d mention them here and offer my thoughts while also seeking out the opinions of the readers.

Heatley to San Jose?

First, confirming a rumor I first read about from Eklund on Hockeybuzz, TSN is reporting that the Ottawa Senators and San Jose Sharks have discussed a deal for Senator’s winger Dany Heatley. The Sharks’ players being bandied about in these rumors are F Jonathan Cheechoo and Defenseman Christian Ehrhoff. However, both sources have indicated that a third team may have to be included in order to facilitate the move. The team being mentioned is the Montreal Canadiens. It isn’t clear which players would need to be included on the Canadiens’ side to make the trade work.

Personally, unless the Canadiens are getting some very valuable pieces in this move, I find it difficult to believe that they would do anything to help out the rival Ottawa Senators. The Senators are in a tough spot because of Healtley’s no movement clause which he already exercised to nix a trade to Edmonton and also the money left on Heatley’s contract. Not many teams are in the position of both having the required talent to send back to Ottawa (reportedly a top six forward, a puck-moving defenseman and a high draft pick) and also the cap space to make a deal work. If I am Canadien’s GM Bob Gainey, I make it even more difficult for Ottawa to swing a deal to move Heatley.

I am getting tired of the whole Heatley drama anyway. I am glad that Glen Sather pulled the Rangers out of this game. Granted he is an ultra-talented player but with stories of him not going to teammate Jason Spezza’s wedding (despite the fact that they are supposed to be close friends) and the way in which Heatley dealt with Edmonton, he is just not worth the headache.

You can argue that Heatley simply exercised his fairly negotiated right to veto the trade with Edmonton and shouldn’t be looked at as the villain in this story. However, I get the sense that Edmonton truly believed that Heatley would ultimately approve a trade to the Oilers. They bent over backwards to show him their commitment to winning and how much they would have valued his services. For a guy whose main complaints with Ottawa were how new coach Cory Clouston utilized him on the ice and Healtey’s desire to prove himself as a leader, I don’t get how Edmonton wouldn’t have been a good fit for him. If Heatley didn’t want to go to Edmonton he could have been up front with them and said so in the beginning. Heatley and his agent simply tried to use Edmonton’s interest in him to ratchet up the interest of other teams with which he would have been willing to waive his NMC to go to. For all I care, Heatley can stay in Ottawa and face the wrath of the Sens faithful night in and night out.

NHL to Investigate Hossa Contract

I find this story to be both amusing and a sad indictment of the NHL and how Commissioner Gary Bettman and the owners are running the league. As you know and I have already written about, the Hawks signed Hossa to a 12 year contract that he will almost certainly not fulfill in order to bring the average annual salary and thus the annual cap hit down while still allowing Hossa to collect a majority of the value of the contract since the contract is severely front-loaded. Clearly this contract was structured to circumvent the salary cap. It isn’t illegal however, according to my understanding of the CBA. What it is though is a smart move that any or all GM’s in the league can use.

The salary cap was something that the NHL owners insisted upon because they couldn’t curb their own bad spending habits. Now, the GM’s in the league, at the behest of the owners, have figured a way around the salary cap. And the league is upset about it?!?!?!? Look, if the NHL wants to prevent this from happening in the future then they are going to have to negotiate a term limit of some kind into the next CBA. If they try to throw out the Hossa deal with Chicago now then the NHL will come across like hypocrites considering the league has already approved the contract.

Phoenix Ownership Situation Murkier Than Ever

Is there a sadder story in all of hockey right now? Or do enough fans even care enough about this to make it a sad story? As expected the NHL Board of Governors has rubber-stamped Jerry Reinsdorf’s bid to purchase the sad-sack franchise while unanimously voting against the bid of Jim Balsillie. Considering Balsillie’s bid was roughly $70 million more than Reinsdorf’s, outgoing owner and creditor Jerry Moyes is not happy. He, along with many other creditors, would have to take a huge loss if the Reinsdorf application goes through. Whereas if the Balsillie bid were to be approved, Moyes would make back much of the money he has invested in the team.

Face it; Bettman and the NHL are very stubborn when it comes to hockey in the Sunbelt. They are the ones credited with bringing hockey to non-traditional markets like South Florida, Phoenix, San Jose, Nashville and Raleigh-Durham. True, their efforts have been met with mixed results as Nashville, Florida and now Phoenix have had questions surrounding the viability of sustaining a team in their market. Nashville was another target of Balsillie’s when they were sold a few years ago. Only the NHL stepping in and rubber-stamping a very questionable ownership group may have saved Predators hockey in Nashville.

To their credit however, the NHL has rescued franchises in trouble before. The league has saved hockey in Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Ottawa when the owners of all of three of those franchises sought the protection of the bankruptcy courts. All three of those teams have achieved on-ice and box-office success since their rescue with the Penguins even winning the Stanley Cup last season.

What’s going to happen in the Coyotes ownership quandary is anyone’s guess. I only hope that once this situation is finally resolved the franchise can get back to the business of building a winning program whether they are in Phoenix or Hamilton or some other locale. Right now this situation is a black eye on the NHL and an embarrassment for fans of the sport.

The Islanders Big Day

As a Rangers fan I count the Flyers as our biggest rival. Every game in the last few seasons has been filled with attitude and dislike for each other. It makes for some very entertaining hockey. After the Flyers I would rank the Rangers’ biggest rivals in the following order:

New Jersey

Pittsburgh

NY Islanders

Geographically speaking, it would make more sense for the Islanders to be the biggest rival of the Rangers. To this day one of the more common and popular chants at MSG is the “Potvin Sucks!” chant. Unfortunately, the Islanders have not been a very good team for quite some time and a lot of juice has been lost in the Rangers/Islanders rivalry. The Islanders face their own problems with their very existence on Long Island in doubt. Tomorrow is a critical date in New York Islanders history. Tomorrow morning is when a public hearing is to be held to discuss the Lighthouse project.

The Lighthouse Project is a wide-ranging real estate development that will include a new arena and facilities for the club. The biggest disadvantage facing the Islanders franchise is their outdated arena and facilities. Free agents tend to stay away from the Islanders because of that. The Nassau Coliseum, much like Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh, cannot generate enough revenue to sustain a viable NHL team.

Owner Charles Wang has made no secret of his willingness to move the franchise if the Lighthouse Project is not approved. In fact, Wang has already made his intentions of attending an exhibition game the Islanders will play in Kansas City well known. Kansas City is a likely destination if Wang were to move the team as K.C. has a modern new arena for basketball and/or hockey but no permanent tenants.

As Justin implored in his post, it shouldn’t matter whether you are an Islanders fan, a Rangers fan or a fan of any other NHL team, show your support for the Lighthouse Project. Let’s keep the Islanders franchise where they belong, on Long Island. For a club with the rich tradition of the Islanders to have to face the possibility of leaving their home and their zealous fans for another destination is unacceptable. I certainly hope that given how much meddling Bettman is doing in the Coyotes and the Lightning ownership situations that he has at least saved some of his energy to help save the Islanders. Show your support for keeping hockey on Long Island and remember; Potvin still sucks!! J

The Light(house) at the End of the Tunnel

2009-08-05T09:53:00.002-04:00

Commissioner Gary Bettman stepped to the podium yesterday at the Adam’s Playhouse, received a tremendous ovation from the 1,150 in attendance, exclaimed that he rarely receives any ovation, thanked the good officiating from the night before for the ovation (a joke, obviously), and then he proceeded to deliver a well-articulated speech. In his speech, Bettman defended the Islanders adamantly, he defended Long Island and Long Islanders alike, and then he defended New York Islanders owner, Charles Wang. For a man who has watched nearly eight years of his life and millions of dollars fade into the Town of Hempstead abyss, Wang earned every single word of praise from the Commissioners mouth.

At Hofstra yesterday, as well, Mike Bossy and Bobby Nystrom, two hockey legends and two of the icons from the Islanders glory days, stepped forward and delivered speeches with heart, with passion, and most importantly, with a Long Island resident point of view. Both made sure to mention that they not only played for the New York Islanders during their glory days, but they are both now permanent Long Islanders, and they feel the troubles that are occurring on Long Island. They made sure to say they love it here, that they enjoy having their families here, that they see the potential here, and they can’t wait to be a part of the future here. For two men who could have walked away from the organization after they left hockey, both have decided to be a part of the long, painful process that has been the Lighthouse Project. A large thank you goes out to them for their unyielding support.

Yesterday at the Lighthouse Conference, the Unions were out in large numbers to support the 19,000 permanent jobs. Yesterday at the Lighthouse Conference, many local Boards of Education came forth and spoke about how the nearly $70 million in tax revenue could benefit the financial troubles they are having in their respective districts. Yesterday at the Lighthouse Conference, citizens stepped forward and explained that in the recession we are in, the economic boost that will come from the Lighthouse is almost a no brainer. Yesterday at the Lighthouse Conference, republicans and democrats alike professed that we need to move away from doing nothing on Long Island, and finally develop a masterful project to put Long Island on the map. Yesterday at the Lighthouse Conference, Chris Botta, who does not have a secured interest in the Islanders or the Lighthouse by any means, passionately weaved his words of magic we have all enjoyed thousands of times on Islanders Point Blank about the importance of the Lighthouse. And most importantly, yesterday at the conference, Islander fans showed up to demonstrate the true passion that underlies this organization by supporting the Lighthouse.

Yesterday at the conference, citizens came forward to magnify the large holes in the Lighthouse Project, and the fact that it isn’t good for the people of the Town of Hempstead or Long Island in the long run. Oh wait, that never happened! Actually, I was quite taken back at the lack of any organized opposition to the Lighthouse Project that had the opportunity to present itself in large numbers yesterday. Besides Garden City residents who felt that it may affect the economy of their locale, and several random citizens who brought forth some problems they may have had with the project (at most, two to three citizens), their was ZERO opposition to the beautiful Lighthouse Project.

As Gary Bettman said yesterday, and as many of the backers of the Lighthouse Project have reiterated since the end of the “Lighthouse Cold War” between Wang and Town of Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray, the Lighthouse Project seems to finally have a large momentum behind it pushing it forward. It began with the end of the aforementioned “Cold War,” and the snowball effect continued through the drafting of Tavares (maybe not politically, but it was a sure-fire shot in the arm for the fan base). The snowball seemed to become an avalanche with the Press Conference held at the Nassau Coliseum, where Governor Patterson put his full support behind the project, which had every politician in attendance not only apparently backing Patterson’s stance, but also enjoying the photo opportunities a day like that presented. Yesterday at the Adam’s Playhouse, that momentum that has slowly but surely formed over the past six months erupted into a dominant showing of support, and a TREMENDOUS step in the right direction for the project.

That dreary, empty-stomached feeling many of us had six months ago seems to be a distant memory. After the past several months of positive steps, and after a dominating win yesterday by Charles Wang, Scott Rechler, the New York Islanders, and most importantly, Long Islanders, it seems as if we are closer than ever before. The New York Islanders obviously don’t win too often, but yesterday was a convincing victory.

In my personal opinion, there is finally a Lighthouse at the end of this seven-year tunnel.

-Justin M. (IslesNet@GMail.Com)

Statistical Comparison: Zherdev, Antropov, Kotalik and Higgins

2009-08-04T23:03:00.003-04:00

By Glen Miller

Now that it is official and Zherdev will not be a Ranger in 2009-2010, I thought it would be a good time to analyze and compare the changes that Glen Sather has implemented to the Rangers’ wings. My hope is this comparison will help in determining whether it was wise for GM Glen Sather to walk away from Zherdev’s arbitration award and allow Antropov to walk in favor of signing UFA Ales Kotalik. For the purpose of this exercise I have omitted Marian Gaborik and Scott Gomez from this comparison since the subtraction of Gomez led directly to the addition of Gaborik. My feeling is that adding Kotalik more or less replaces the losses of Antropov and Zherdev; at least in Glen Sather’s mind. Not only will I do a statistical comparison using the more traditional stats like Goals, Assists and +/- Rating, I will also utilize one of the “advanced statistics” that I discussed previously in my statistical analysis blog; specifically On Ice/Off Ice +/-.

First let’s look at the last two years worth of the traditional stats (Games Played, Goals, Assists, Points and +/- Rating and Points Per Game) for each player:

Nik Zherdev

2008-2009 82GP 23G 35A 58Pts +6 (.71PPG)

2007-2008 82GP 26G 35A 61Pts -9 (.74 PPG)

Nik Antropov

2008-2009 81GP 28G 31A 59Pts -14 (.73 PPG)

2007-2008 72GP 26G 30A 56Pts +10 (.78 PPG)

Ales Kotalik

2008-2009 75GP 20G 23A 43Pts -5 (.57 PPG)

2007-2009 79GP 23G 20A 43Pts -5 (.54 PPG)

A quick look at these numbers shows that in addition to being slightly more durable (Antropov and Zherdev combined to average 79.25 GP each per season while Kotalik averaged 77 GP per season) the Niks are more prolific offensively combining to average .74 PPG compared to only .56 PPG for Kotalik. The PPG differential would result in a nearly 15 point difference over the course of an 82 game schedule.

Additionally, I looked at Ales Kotalik’s best statistical season (2005-2006) to compare with the last two seasons of Nik Zherdev and Nik Antropov. In 2005-2006, Kotalik recoded a line of 25G-37A-62Pts (.76 PPG) and was a -3 in 82 games with the Buffalo Sabres. Basically Kotalik’s best is pretty much the same as Zherdev’s and Antropov’s averages over the last two seasons. Factor in the differences in age (Zherdev – 24, Antropov – 28, Kotalik – 30) and the contract terms and salary (Kotalik – 3 years, $9 million versus 1 year, $3.9 million had Sather accepted the award for Zherdev, and Antropov - 4 years, $16 million) and it seems as if Zherdev was clearly the better value between the three. I think that it is also fair to say that Antropov is worth what he got from Atlanta when you compare him to Ales Kotlaik’s numbers and what the Rangers decided to pay him.

Traditional statistics certainly do not support Sather’s decision to sign Kotalik while allowing both Nik Zherdev and Nik Antropov to leave via free agency. Of course what would the purpose be in developing “advanced statistics” if everyone believed that the traditional statistics accurately reflected a player’s true on-ice value? Now I’ll do a similar exercise using the “advanced statistic” referred to as “On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- Rating”. But first a quick refresher on what that is exactly.

We should all know what the traditional +/- rating is so I will not bore anyone with a definition of that. Where the On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (OIOI +/-) differs from the traditional +/- is that the OIOI +/- factors in the quality of a player’s team. Simply put, you compare an individual player’s +/- with that of the rest of his team combined. For example; if a player is a +5 in the traditional sense and the rest of his team is a combined -3 then the player’s OIOI +/- is +8. For purposes of this comparison I will use figures that compare a player’s +/- per 60 minutes of ice time.

Nik Zherdev

2008-2009 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (+1.32)

2007-2008 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (+0.2)

Nik Antropov

2008-2009 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (-0.46)

2007-2008 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (+1.07)

Ales Kotalik

2008-2009 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (-0.04)

2007-2008 On-Ice/Off-Ice +/- (-0.19)

What does this tell us exactly? Well, it means that Zherdev was on the ice for an average of 1.32 goals/60 minutes of ice time more than what he was on the ice when goals were scored against. That figure placed him 9^th among players who played at least 75 games last season. Kotalik placed 140^th and Antropov an even worse 200^th out of players who skated in at least 75 contests last season.

Ironically, perennial Norris Trophy candidates Zdeno Chara (-0.44) and Chris Pronger (-0.37) both finished lower than Kotalik and just better than Antropov last season. Nonetheless, even comparing Zherdev, Antropov and Kotalik using an “advanced statistic”, Zherdev comes out well above Kotalik. Somewhat surprisingly, unlike the comparison of traditional stats showed, Kotalik finished well above Antropov using the “advanced Statistical comparison”.

In conclusion, it certainly would appear that Zherdev was a better value than either Antropov or Kotalik. Even when you factor in that Kotalik would have made $900,000 less in 2009-2010 than Zherdev, when you consider the 2 extra years on Kotalik’s deal, the age difference and the evidence that points to Zherdev having more offensive ability than Kotalik, signing Zherdev would have been the smarter move; both for this year and in coming years.

What to Do with Nik Zherdev?

2009-08-04T15:01:00.002-04:00

By Glen Miller

The hour is nearly upon us; the hour in which we learn how much Glen Sather values Nik Zherdev. Now that an arbitrator has awarded Zherdev a $3.9 million salary for next season, Sather has three options open to him: he can accept the arbitration award and sign Zherdev for that salary; he can just simply walk away thus allowing Zherdev to become an UFA; or he can accept the award and then deal Zherdev at some point for useful assets.

As is typically the case in NHL arbitration cases, the arbitrator awarded an amount which is practically the mid-point of Zherdev’s requested $4.75 million and the Rangers offer of $3 million as reported by the New York Post. The Rangers had a tough enough time debating whether or not to qualify Zherdev for $3.25 million and their arbitration offer of $3 million shows about how much they value Nik’s on-ice contributions. It would seem to make sense that the Rangers would walk away from the $3.9 million award since they already were undecided about offering him the $3.25 million qualifier. However, I don’t think it’s that easy.

There aren’t many top 6 forwards available at this point either via free agency or trade. The ones that are (Heatley, Tanguay, and Kessel) all either make or are asking for salaries in excess of $4 or $5 million annually for the next several seasons. Zherdev comes with a short term commitment (1 year) and a salary below the asking price of the free agents or trade targets. Additionally, the Rangers would have to sacrifice assets to any club with which they made a deal whereas by accepting the arbitration award the Rangers won’t have to sacrifice any roster players or draft picks.

I’ve posted a blog previously which highlighted Zherdev’s numbers and have made the argument that he may well be worth keeping given his relative youth and upside. He led the team in scoring and was second in goals scored last season all at the tender age of 24. With the addition of Gaborik either as a line mate or as someone that the other team matches their best defensive players against, it is reasonable to believe Zherdev’s best may be before him. Sure he didn’t seem to fit in well with new coach John Tortorella for the 20 or so games after Tom Renney was fired but who is to say that Zherdev won’t come to camp with a renewed sense of confidence and purpose? If he doesn’t the Rangers could always try to swap him for a draft pick or a player that can help them reach the playoffs at the trade deadline.

Eklund has already heard rumors that Dany Heatley’s name is in play in regards to a trade to the Rangers. According to his sources, Brandon Dubinsky would not have to be included in the package. I’m not sure how the Rangers could pull off this move while meeting Sens’ GM Bryan Murray’s asking price and at the same time moving enough salary cap space to stay under the cap. Murray has already referred to a Rangers offer of a package built around Zherdev and Rozsival to be “insulting”. Personally I think Murray needs to shut up and move the dude. At this point he is going to be a huge distraction. At least if he had accepted the offer of Zherdev and Rozsival he would have gotten a top 6 forward and a puck moving blue liner. Now he may end up with egg on his face if he can’t convince Montreal to facilitate a trade which would send Heatley to San Jose. But that may be a blog for another day.

Essentially, any way you look at it, it makes more sense to me for the Rangers to commit to the one year deal for $3.9 million than for them to pursue another top six forward either via trade of free agency. The Rangers are already tight against the cap and if the commit to any more long term deals then they are going to have trouble next season re-signing pending RFA Defensemen Marc Staal and Dan Girardi.

Running on Empty - Please Help the Islanders!

2009-08-03T09:49:00.002-04:00

The hockey world has now come to a complete standstill. Since Thursday, most hockey sites, including this one, have not had an update. The dreadful days of August are upon us, and I can only thank god that there are six weeks left until training camps open across the NHL and the buzz returns.

As for the Islanders, regardless of the standstill, the most important day in Islanders history is tomorrow. At approximately 9:30AM tomorrow morning, Islanders fans, proponents, opponents, and politicians will gather at Hofstra University, and the future of the Islanders will be much clearer following this elongated meeting. After tomorrow, we will have a much better understanding of whether or not the October 3^rd deadline will be met by the town officials. After tomorrow, we will see clearly whether or not the Islanders will still belong to Long Island following the 2014-2015 season.

A little heavy for a Monday morning, I understand, however, the emphasis cannot be placed on this meeting enough. If you love the Islanders, if you even are a Ranger fan who loves the rivalry, or if you just want your kid to be able to see the last professional sports team play on Long Island, I highly suggest you try and make your way over to this event tomorrow.

If there was ever a day you could fake sick, if there was ever a day you make up something about your kids, if there was ever a day to use one of your vacation days, tomorrow is the day. That is just how important tomorrow is.

I ask of you, on behalf of myself, of Glen, of Islanders Point Blank and Islanders Independent, on behalf of Let There Be Light(house), and on behalf of all the remaining blogging sites and of the New York Islanders, please show your support. Without the Islanders, this website doesn’t exist, all the phenomenal Islanders blogging websites do not exist, and hockey and professional sports no longer exist on Long Island.

For any information or questions you may have, please check out the Lighthouse Blog at http://lettherebelighthouse.blogspot.com . This is the best website around for everything Lighthouse. If I can't convince you to come, I know that they will!

Thank you for the tremendous support you have shown to Islanders Net, and more importantly, I thank you in advance for the support you will show tomorrow!

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)

Changes You'd Like in the New Collective Bargaining Agreement

2009-07-30T08:57:00.002-04:00

By Glen Miller

I recently read an article up on The Hockey News written by Adam Proteau discussing some of the changes he would like to see made to the new CBA when it is negotiated, hopefully before the summer of 2012. Today he included a second piece with a few of the changes that Toronto GM Brian Burke has recommended. This got me thinking a little bit about some of the things that could be improved come the next round of negotiations. I also thought I would give you, the loyal readers, a chance to voice your opinions as well. What changes would you like to see in the new CBA?

I know the current CBA doesn’t expire officially until September of 2012 but it’s a slow period around here and I also thought that after 4 seasons we have had enough time to evaluate the CBA and make some recommendations on improving it. To me it almost seems as if it was just yesterday they were playing the first season of this current CBA. It’s hard to believe that it has already been 4 years but at the same time I realize that the next three years until the current CBA expires will likely fly by as well so now is a good time to give this topic some thought.

The biggest change that the new CBA brought to the game was the Salary Cap. As I’m sure we all know, this institution provides for both a salary cap ceiling and a salary cap floor; the amounts of each were to be determined by “Hockey Related Revenues”. This gave franchises the assurance that NHL payrolls would never account for more than a set percentage of the revenues that the league was generating. The bone given to the NHLPA was the floor which mandated that every team in the NHL would spend a minimum in player salary. This system was designed to create a fair, more level playing field for all 30 teams in the NHL. Unfortunately, it hasn’t worked as advertised.

Just like their contemporaries in every other league with a salary cap system, NHL Managers quickly found ways to circumvent the salary cap system. The big thing that some Managers are doing is signing players to ridiculously long term, front-loaded contracts; so long that the neither the team nor the player has a realistic expectation that the player will be around at the conclusion of the term. Two examples of this type of contract are the deals signed this off-season by Marian Hossa with the ‘Hawks and the extension awarded to Chris Pronger by Philadelphia. In both cases, the terms of their contracts will see the players reach the age of 42 before expiring. The clubs front-loaded the deals so that the players will receive most of the money in the first half of the deal; the period that they will likely still be active. Hossa for example receives salaries of $7.9 million per for each of the first seven seasons, a period which currently at age 30, Hossa is still likely to reach as an NHL player. So instead of paying fair market value for the players the clubs will be on the hook for substantially less of a cap hit than they would have if they had signed the player to a more conventional contract.

Philly may have goofed though by signing Pronger to a seven year deal which accounts for roughly a $5 million cap hit per. There is a provision that penalizes a team’s salary cap number for the full duration of a contract if they sign a player 35 or older and that player retires after the first year. So, if Pronger plays 4 seasons of his new deal (the period in which Pronger will earn most of his salary) and retire at age 39, the Flyers would still be on the hook for the cap hit for the remainder of the cap hit. The Flyers are arguing that since Pronger was actually 34 when he signed the extension that provision of the CBA doesn’t apply. The NHL counters that the since the extension doesn’t actually take effect until Pronger turns 35 that the provision indeed applies.

Proteau mentions in his article that it is likely that a “term-limit” will be placed on contracts in the new CBA. You know, I find this exceptionally humorous. The NHL owners fought for and won a salary cap in the last round of negotiations because they felt they needed a cap to control the out of control spending on free agents; the same out of control spending that is perpetrated by NHL GM’s who report to their respective owners. Now the GM’s (presumably with the approval of their owners) have found a way to bypass the spending limit by awarding front-loaded, long-term deals. Now the owners want to negotiate a way to keep GM’s (and THEMSELVES!!!!!) from circumventing the salary cap that they pushed for because these same GM’s and owners couldn’t control their OWN spending. JEEZ!!!!

Two items that Brian Burke was quoted as desiring to change in the new CBA is the “Four-Recall Rule” and the inability of teams to pick up part of the salary for players traded away. The Four-Recall Rule means that teams can only recall 4 players from their AHL affiliate after the NHL trade deadline up until the point in which the AHL affiliate is eliminated from the playoffs or eliminated from contention for the playoffs. This can handicap a team in the playoffs in terms of depth. A team whose AHL affiliate is in the playoffs may not be able to have players called up to the big club during the playoffs if the parent club has already used their 4 call-ups. I agree with Burke on this one. Injuries can happen and for a team to have to play with a short bench because of a rule designed to protect the fans of AHL teams would be preposterous. Unfortunately, that’s what it is all about when you are a minor league affiliate of another pro team.

The other item in which Burke would like to be changed in a new CBA is the right of a team to pick up part of the salary of a player who is dealt to another team. He theorizes that this would make it easier for teams in the salary cap world to make trades. For example, if a big market team wanted to move a player with a large salary to a small-market team in order to create cap space then they would be allowed to pick up part of the salary with no effect to the salary cap. Currently, many teams that do not spend to the cap limit do so because of self-imposed budget restrictions. Basically, it has nothing to do with assuming the cap hit; it has everything to do with not being able to pay the remaining salary. That would not be an issue if Burke gets his wish.

I have to say that I again agree with Burke. Some argue that allowing this would benefit the big-market teams at the expense of the small-market teams. I say that if the small-market teams play their cards right and insist on the big-market club not only picking up a portion of the salary but also including other assets then the small-market club benefits. The bottom line is that teams are successful because they are well-run. Yes, being able to spend to the cap limit is advantageous when it comes to retaining your own players but invariably tough decisions will need to be made by every team, big and small; it is the smart GM’s and the well-run franchises that make the right decisions more often than not.

Another change that many people are pushing for is the elimination of no trade clauses in contracts. Dany Heatley and Mats Sundin have recently invoked their no trade clauses to block their teams from trading them to a destination that they didn’t want to go. I say too bad. These clauses were negotiated in good faith. The teams and the owners keep looking to the CBA to prevent them from shooting themselves in the foot. If they want to negotiate a no trade clause into a contract to help entice a free agent to sign with them then they are just going to have to live with that. I for one would like to see GM’s held accountable for bad negotiating and make them pay for their own mistakes.

There you have it people; some thoughts from other sources on potential changes to the CBA. I have offered my opinions on these ideas so how about offering your opinions. What about your own ideas for the new CBA. Speak up hockey fans, I can’t hear you!!!

Tanguay to Phoenix - Updated 9:00AM

2009-07-28T10:25:00.004-04:00

As reported first here this morning around 7:00, I received confirmation from a source around 2:00AM that Tanguay had indeed agreed in principle to a contract with the Coyotes. It seems as if my source was extremely on target, because word is now coming in that it is all but complete. It is rare that I am the first to break anything, as my sources are not widespread by any means, but I was very confident in putting this up because I knew the accuracy of my source. I first reported a deal for about 3 years worth $5 million per season, and it appears that it will be fairly accurate to the true deal.

According to my source right now, the deal is about 99.9% done, just waiting on final paperwork to be approved by the NHL office and a press release to be passed from the Coyotes.

Updated - 11:00AM: The delay for the announcement may be the time difference. Apparently, the deal may have been agreed upon late in Phoenix, which would mean three hours later here on the East Coast. This morning, as Eklund reported, several teams mentioned they were still in on the hunt. This may be because Phoenix hadn't submitted anything to the league offices and nothing was deemed as officially done. It is only 8:00AM in Phoenix right now, and I expect to hear something by 3:00PM Eastern Standard Time.

Updated - 9:00AM Wednesday: This is the reason I don't do rumors, because of the fact that when even the slightest thing changes, the entire deal can be thrown off. I spoke with my source last night who apologized sincerely to me, but he said that something happened internally. Apparently when Tanguay's party and the Coyotoes "closed out the deal" on Monday night, both sides had confused the number they agreed too in terms of salary per year. Upon revisiting the "final touches" on Tuesday morning, both sides realized a big mistake was made, and the deal has been held off for now. Phoenix is still leading the pack by far, and something may get done quicker than expected. It is very unfortunate because Tanguay and the Coyotes make sense.

I will let you know more as soon as I get it. And trust me, this will be one of the few times a rumor is ever followed on this site.

-Justin

Is Tanguay a Fit for the Rangers?

2009-07-28T09:06:00.001-04:00

By Glen Miller

As Justin mentioned in his blog, the hockey world is slowing down as most of the marquee free agents are off of the board, the draft is over and we just kill time until the season stars. Of course I anticipate there to still be some action as a few appealing free agents remain on the open market and some teams, the Bruins (and Rangers potentially) for example, are in the position of having to clear salary cap space either to re-sign key RFA’s or because they are already over the salary cap limit.

Perhaps the most appealing UFA left on the market is former Avalanche, Canadien and Flame Winger Alex Tanguay. Justin mentioned in his blog that he felt Tanguay would be a good fit for a team like the Rangers. He reasons that Tanguay would be the perfect, playmaking complement to Marian Gaborik. I’ve decided to chime in on that thought with this post.

A quick look at Tanguay’s career numbers show an impressive Points Per Game (PPG) average of .88. That would prorate to just more than 72 points over a full 82 game schedule. His career mark for Goals Per Game (GPG) is .29 which calculates to just under 24 goals per 82 games. Tanguay also boasts a relatively low number of Shots Per Game (SPG) averaging just 1.5 per game over his 9 year career. More noted goal-scorers like Marian Gaborik and Alex Ovechkin have career SPG marks of 3.4 and 5.5 respectively. Judging just by these numbers it appears that Tanguay is more of a playmaker than goal-scorer.

Tanguay’s production over the last four seasons has been a little better than his career numbers. He has recorded .92 PPG over those last 4 seasons while spending time with 3 different teams; Canadiens, Flames and Avalanche. That represents 3 more points per full, 82 game schedule than his career average.

Injuries were a factor in last season’s slight drop-off in performance as he averaged .82 PPG while missing 28 games with a separated shoulder. That should be of no concern for this upcoming season as he should be completely healthy and at 29, Tanguay would appear to have plenty left in the tank. Additionally, Tanguay has averaged more than 73 games per season over the course of his 9 year career.

All things considered, Tanguay would appear to be a great fit for this Rangers team. Despite the Rangers obvious need for a Center, Tanguay’s ability to play on either side of Center would enable him to play with Gaborik. His playmaking ability would seem to complement Gaborik’s goal-scoring very well. He has been fairly durable throughout his career and with a career mark of +157 he would seem to be a capable player in all 3 zones.

Certainly the question of whether Tanguay would fit in on the ice has been satisfactorily answered but the harder question is how to fit Tanguay’s salary under the salary cap. The Rangers currently have only about $3.5 million available under the salary cap (not counting Tyler Arnason and Brian Boyle) according to NHLSCAP.com (note: Since Korpikoski and his $700,000 salary were dealt to Phoenix for Lisin, I deducted that from the numbers on the site). Currently we have 11 Forwards (Gilroy is a Defenseman, not a Forward), 7 Defensemen and 1 Goalie under contract. Steve Valiquette is thought to have signed a contract but it has yet to be announced. If we assume that he signed for $750,000, then we are left with just around $2.75 million to play with. Brandon Dubinsky is a RFA as is Nik Zherdev who is awaiting an arbitrator to award his salary figure.

If you believe that Dubinsky will ultimately sign for something similar to Ryan Callahan, $2.3 million average annual salary, then that would eat up almost all of the cap space. In that scenario, it appears even more likely that Sather would walk away from the arbitration award in Zherdev’s case. The Rangers have a couple of players that would be candidates for demotion to Hartford, Aaron Voros and Pat Rismiller, but since each only carries a cap hit of $1 million the club wouldn’t save that much by doing so.

The other option to clear payroll room would be to trade a player like Michael Rozsival. There were rumblings at one point that Columbus was looking to add an offensive-minded defenseman; preferably one with a right-handed shot. It might make some sense to explore a trade with Columbus; perhaps a Rozsival for Raffi Torres deal makes sense given Columbus’ plethora of wingers? A move like that would save the club $2.75 million against the cap. If Rismiller and Voros were sent to Hartford then we’d have about $5 million available under the cap. Would Tanguay be willing to sign a deal that paid him $3.5 - $4 million with the Rangers to skate with Gaborik. It might be worth it to ask. Here’s what our lines might look like if these moves came to fruition:

LW Tanguay, C Dubinsky, RW Gaborik

LW Higgins, C Drury, RW Callahan

LW Avery, C Anisimov, RW Kotalik

LW Brashear, C Boyle, RW Torres

Lisin could skate on a line in place of Brashear or Boyle with Higgins moving to Center for Boyle. Perhaps this isn’t exactly a lineup to rival that of the 1980’s Oilers or today’s Penguins but with 7 or 8 guys capable of scoring 20+ goals the Rangers shouldn’t be near the bottom of the league in scoring this season.

Our defense would be thin with Redden, Staal and Girardi the only returning defensemen that accrued more than a handful of games at the NHL level. The hope here is that Gilroy is NHL-ready and can contribute offensively while two of our youngsters like Corey Potter, Michael Sauer, Michael Del Zotto and Bobby Sanguineti demonstrate that they can handle a regular shift at this level.

Even though it is a possibility, I don’t see Sather making all of these moves. He and Torts seem set on adding a center if they do anything and are counting heavily on Rozsival to bounce back and be an effective player this year. Tanguay would certainly bring playmaking ability to the forward ranks that is lacking but his addition would require a great deal of maneuvering to stay under the cap ceiling. What are your thoughts my fellow Rangers’ fans?

Center's-a-Plenty

2009-07-27T21:04:00.002-04:00

Do you recall about two to three years ago when a simple look at the Islanders prospects would bring about a nauseating feeling? Between lack of depth and lack of quality, the Islanders were truly a team without any hope to compete in the future. After his first two seasons as general manager were quite unsuccessful, Garth Snow decided that it was time for the New York Islanders to do it right, and that it was time for them to begin building from within. With the constant struggle of luring premium talent to a run-down facility and a team that has long struggled to be competitive, this was the only proper way to go about running the organization properly.

If we are to look at the Islanders prospect pool today, there is a calmer feeling than there was three years. I am not saying that the overall feeling is that great, considering the Islanders prospect pool is still on the weaker side, however, a sense of calmness is there, as the Islanders are finally doing it right.

An article that I wrote last week delved into the Islanders massive depth that they currently have in net, and Garth Snow’s ideology of building from the net out. Today, I take a look at the depth that the Islanders have accumulated in the center position. Long considered to be a tremendous weak spot for the organization, the Islanders now have a tremendous amount of highly skilled depth down the middle.

New York Islander’s Net Depth Chart at Center (Top 12):

1. Doug Weight

2. John Tavares

3. Joshua Bailey

4. Frans Nielsen

5. Richard Park (although a right wing as well)

6. Trevor Smith

7. Corey Trivino

8. Justin DiBenedetto

9. David Ullstrom

10. Casey Cizikas

11. David Toews

12. Anders Lee

Obviously, players listed in the slots numbered one through five will be appearing with the New York Islanders in the upcoming season. As has been discussed tremendously, John Tavares may be placed in a wing position to begin his NHL career as he learns about the responsibilities that entail being a first-line center in the NHL.

As you can see, the Islanders have great depth at the center position. While it is not considered to be the best depth at center in the NHL by any means, it still presents itself as a top-10 to top-15 center depth in the NHL. Let us take a quick look at the players listed in slots six through twelve, and I will provide a quick excerpt on what their talent will allow them to accomplish.

Trevor Smith: An undrafted player that was signed out of the Univeristy of New Hampshire, Smith has demonstrated that his not being drafted was unjust. Known to very tenacious on the puck and a quick skater, Smith has excited the Islanders scouts tremendously, and it is shaping up to be a very nice signing. Last year in the AHL, Smith posted great numbers, and he was even able to make his NHL debut with the Islanders.

What to Expect: Considering his late entrance into the NHL, Smith is taking his time in developing into a solid professional hockey player. It will at least take one more year in the AHL before Smith will even be able to compete for a roster spot in the NHL. His upside in the NHL will be nothing more than a third-line center, and he will be hard pressed to hold down that position with the talent the Islanders have in the system. Although he is ranked at number six, it is mostly because he is the furthest along in his development, and he would be the next person to make the jump into the NHL.

Corey Trivino: A small, but extremely quick and talented player, Trivino played last season for Boston University and had a fairly decent year on a pretty good team. Drafted in the second round by the New York Islanders in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, Trivino was a nice pick-up by the Islanders considering many felt he had first round talent. The reason he fell into the second-round were because of concerns with his size.

What to Expect: Trivino possesses a lot of talent, skill, and speed. What he doesn’t posses is size. Before he can make the jump into the professional ranks, Trivino is going to need to put on a pretty fair amount of muscle so that he can withstand the physical abuse he will take during the games. If he is able to do this, you may see Trivino sign a contract in time for the 2010-2011 season, unless he wants to complete four years at school. He has the potential to be a good second-line center in the NHL, and time will tell if he can fill out that potential.

Justin DiBenedetto: Talk about the ultimate wild card. In the 2007-2008 season, his draft year, DiBenedetto skyrocketed to the top ten in the OHL in scoring, which was mostly attributed by scouts as a product of his linemate, Steven Stamkos. Last year, when everyone began to doubt his abilities, DiBenedetto shined once again, leading Sarnia in scoring and finishing again in the top-echelon in scoring in the OHL without the help of Stamkos. Drafted in the sixth round by the New York Islanders, little was expected of DiBenedetto, but he has proven all critics wrong thus far.

What to Expect: After finishing out last year in the AHL with the Sound Tigers, and getting a taste of what it is like to be a part of a professional hockey system, you can expect a competitive spirit like DiBenedetto to come to camp prepared for the challenge. He should easily be at top-six forward for the Sound Tigers next year, and it is even expected that should injuries occur, you could see DiBenedetto make his NHL debut. It is hard to predict where he will finish considering his “wildcard” status, and how he has proven so many wrong, but judging by his numbers in recent years, it is safe to say he has the talent to be a top-six forward in the NHL. Do not take my word on this one, as even professional scouts and talent analysts are having trouble understanding where DiBenedetto will wind up! He could prove to be a late-round gem.

David Ullstrom: Drafted in the 4^th Round of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, the Islanders may have found another great pick in a later round. Ullstrom is of quite large stature, measuring in at 6 foot 3. What intrigues the Islanders scouts even more is the fact that not only is he big and strong, but he is also an excellent skater with a great top speed.

Defensively is where Ullstrom is still on a major learning curve. He struggles a little bit on his backcheck, and his decisions in the defensive zone are somewhat obscure, however, he is working on that. After a very impressive World Junior tournament, Ullstrom had the Islanders very excited. It will be a very important year for his development in the Swedish Elite League.

What to Expect: Ullstrom is a very, very talented player with a lot of upside. He is quick, smart, tactical, and very shifty, much like many of the other Swedish players who play in the National Hockey League. He will be playing one more year in Sweden, hopefully in the Swedish Elite League, and he will be competing for a spot on the Swedish team at the World Junior Championships, which should be his barring injury. Ullstrom has the ability to develop into a second line center in the National Hockey League, as his offensive skills are quite impressive. It will be reliant upon his defensive development if he is to make it to the NHL, and whether or not he can be a center in the NHL.

Casey Cizikas: Please, for the time being, forget about his off ice incident. It was something that happened in the past, and he is trying to get over it as much as possible. It should not be something that allows our vision to become skewed. Cizikas is really a very promising prospect in the Islanders system. With a great mix of hands, speed, vision, and talent, Cizikas simply fell as far as he did in this past year’s draft because of his off-ice issues, and the fact people were waiting to see how his court case played out. According to some scouts, Cizikas was able to be an early-second round talent because of his skill and size, and he could very well play out to be a great pick up.

What to Expect: Cizikas is a determined player who wants to prove that he is also a good guy. As for maturity, the incident he has experienced has definitely expedited his maturation. He has potential to be a great player, and he has the skill to do as well. This upcoming year in the OHL will tell us a lot about the kind of player he is, and whether or not he will be ready to make the jump. I would expect him to finish out this year in the OHL, and possibly go back next year for one final year before the Islanders decide whether or not to sign him. He has the potential to be a solid third-line center, with second-line potential, but time will tell how well that progresses. His determination can only help his cause.

David Toews: Drafted in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, Toews is a good player with a solid work ethic. While his brother definitely takes the limelight off of him, Toews has quietly and slowly walked in the footsteps of his brother. After playing and dominating for Shattuck St. Mary’s, Toews has moved onto the University of North Dakota. The depth at his college has allowed his coach to take his time in developing his players, and this will not be any different for Toews. David appeared in about half the games for North Dakota this year, and he played fairly well.

What to Expect: I wouldn’t expect to see Toews leave college early for professional hockey, but that all depends on how everything unfolds. He has the potential to be a solid third-liner, but if he doesn’t live up to his billing, he could find himself stuck as a fourth-liner or in the AHL as a call-up.

Anders Lee: A very big and strong player, Anders Lee has always stood out on the ice for his size. Gifted as a center in hockey, and as a quarterback in football, Lee is a very athletic person who not only excels in both of his sports, but in the classroom as well. After reading several articles I received from several of his friends, I believe that Lee does have great potential. Apparently, he has made up his mind, and he will be following his career dream in hockey. This works out well for the Islanders, who only had to give up a sixth round pick to grab the very big and fast centermen. Gifted with lower-round talent, Lee only fell this far because of his indecisiveness between hockey and football. Furthermore, the Islanders were considering taking Lee in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, but opted to pass due to his uncertainty. Now that it is certain, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

What to Expect: I must admit that I have not seen any of Lee’s games, and I only have a little to go by. Apparently, Islander scouts are very high on the kid, and he has a tremendous amount of potential because of his size and strength. The fact that he chose hockey over football is a good start, and I will be interested to see how it plays out. The fact that several people from his hometown sent me emails advocating the player himself tells me a lot about his character and his popularity among his peers.

As you can see, the Islanders have quite the plethora of centermen. With John Tavares and Joshua Bailey being listed as the only ones with top-line potential, there will be a lot of fighting going on to fill out the rest of the center positions in the future. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, but healthy competition like this can only be good for the team.

Now that Snow has the center position looking fairly well, it is time for his to begin looking elsewhere!

Please let me know what you think about the list, and whether or not you agree or disagree. All comments and questions can be left in the comments section below, you can email me at IslesNet@Gmail.Com .

Take Care,

Justin

Bruins Wheeling and Dealing

2009-07-27T09:06:00.001-04:00

By Glen Miller

The Bruins finally completed their long-expected move to shed cap space by dealing Defenseman Aaron Ward back to the Hurricanes in exchange for F Patrick Eaves and a 4^th round draft pick. Eaves was immediately placed on waivers so that the club could buy him out. However, most of us expected the Bruins to use their new-found cap space to re-sign RFA Forward Phil Kessel. Instead the Bruins signed UFA Defenseman Derek Morris to a 1 year, $3.3 million deal.

Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli had stated previously his desire to add a puck moving blue liner to the roster. Morris is certainly an upgrade over Ward in that respect while also being 6 years younger than Ward. Around the time of the entry draft the Bruins were rumored to be close to dealing Kessel to the Leafs in exchange for D Tomas Kaberle. That deal fell apart over the mistaken understanding that a draft choice was to be included in the deal as well. Therefore it shouldn’t be a surprise that Chiarelli added a player like Morris to the Bruins lineup.

What is surprising is that the Bruins still don’t have the cap space to re-sign Kessel. The addition of Morris and subtraction of Ward puts the Bruins more than $3 million over the salary cap limit. With Kessel likely to command at least a salary in excess of $3 million, the Bruins will need to find a way to drop another $6 million if they want to keep Kessel. If they decide to trade the RFA, they don’t have the cap space to take back roster players so a package of draft choices will likely be the currency Boston will require in exchange for Kessel’s services.

Of course the Bruins can always try to trade or demote roster players. The most likely choices for trades or demotions are probably F Marco Sturm and/ or G Tuuka Rask. Trading or demoting both of these players would result in a cap savings of $6.7 million assuming the Bruins didn’t take any salary back in a trade (Sturm – 2 years, $3.5 million per; Tuuka Rask – 1 year, $3.2 million left on their contracts).

Sturm missed 63 games combined with post-concussion syndrome and knee surgery. He did record 13 points in 19 games (.684 PPG) and has averaged .69 PPG over his last 4 seasons. He has also averaged .36 GPG over the last 4 seasons. Sturm is a solid two-way winger with enough offensive ability to contribute on most teams’ second line. With Michael Ryder, Milan Lucic, Mark Recchi, Blake Wheeler, Chuck Kobasew and Phil Kessel already on the roster at Wing, the Bruins can afford to trade Sturm and not lose much offensively.

The Bruins boast one of the more expensive goaltending tandems in the NHL with incumbent starter and defending Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas and highly regarded youngster Tuuka Rask set to earn $8.2 million combined for 2009/2010. It is conceivable that the Bruins could look to save some cap space by dealing Rask or demoting him to the minors. The Bruins would then risk going into the season with unproven Adam Courchaine or one of the veteran free agents like Kevin Weekes, Manny Fernandez or Manny Legace as their back-up in goal.

Chiarelli also has to budget for the pending RFA status of Forwards Blake Wheeler and Milan Lucic and the UFA status of Marc Savard. Wheeler and Lucic should find themselves in line for raises; especially Lucic. The Bruins may elect to allow Savard to leave depending on his contract demands.

Boston will certainly have their work cut out for them moving forward. They still have to address the Kessel situation and depending on the salary cap ceiling for next season, the Bruins may have to shed some additional cap space in order to keep Lucic and Wheeler. While signing Morris upgrades the Bruin blue line this season, it will make re-signing Kessel nearly impossible unless a team makes a Gomez-like trade with Boston to alleviate some of the cap issues.

New York Islanders Net Monday Morning Wake-Up

2009-07-27T07:32:00.002-04:00

After quite the busy and hectic weekend, I am very happy to be sitting down and just getting back to what I love to do: discussing hockey.

The hockey world seems to have come to quite the standstill over the past few days, with media outlets and bloggers alike scratching their heads for an idea to write about. These are the days when we begin to see prospect articles on prospects who will never make it to the NHL, or quick posts about players that shouldn’t be with the organization, and so on and so forth. With the most excited blogging days done for at least 10 more months (trade deadline, the NHL Entry Draft, and July 1^st), it is time for us to focus on the little things. To get everyone up to par, these are a few of the things that have happened with the NYI over the past three days I have been away from the computer:

The Blake Comeau Saga: Yes, it is now at a point where it can be called a saga. After he kindly turned down his qualifying offer several weeks ago (and yes, this is normal practice for players who believe they deserve more), Blake Comeau seems to be pushing the “Sean Bergenheim” button (and since I really like Dee Karl, I will not get into any Bergenheim business because of her motherly love for him). Comeau, who has never scored more than 8 goals in the National Hockey League, is apparently seeking a contract that is not only one-way, but also one that has a substantial increase in dollar value and term than his previous one.

Let us set the record straight. Both sides agree that Comeau is an NHL player, and that if a contract is to get done, he will be with the Islanders to begin the season. The problem lies here: Garth Snow feels that Comeau should receive a contract very similar to Frans Nielsen’s (4 years, $525K cap hit per year), while Blake Comeau and his agent seem to be interested in a three to four year deal worth somewhere around $900K to $1 Million per season. Garth’s argument is going to be based on the fact that Comeau has yet to perform up to his potential in the NHL, while Comeau’s argument is going to be that he does have the potential to be a 20 goal, physical second-liner in this league.

Justin’s Opinion: I am a Blake Comeau fan. I admire his ability to skate into the opponent’s zone and find a pass, however, I feel that there is still plenty of work for him to do. If he ever wants to live up to his size and skill, Blake needs to be able to drive the net more, and he needs to find himself playing a dirty game down low. He does have the potential to put up 20 goals in this league, however, it all comes down to whether he is willing to put in that extra effort all around.

It would be foolish for the Islanders to pass on him right now, however, I do not think they should be locking up $1 million per year on a guy who has much to prove still. While I would not say he is a key player to the rebuild by any stretch of the meaning, I will say he would be a nice second or third liner to take up a roster spot. Fair deal: three to four years, one-way, $750K per season. A small portion of the cap is taken up by a player that may turn out to be a surprise, and if he isn’t, his contract is expendable.

Plus, the other option is not quite as appealing right now….

The Miroslav Satan Scenario: I refer to this situation as a scenario because it will only come to fruition if Comeau and the Islanders cannot find common-ground between the two of them. Before I even begin to analyze Miroslav Satan, I must say that I always had a soft spot for him for some odd reason, and I found his style of play to be very contradictory to the one that was imposed upon him by the defensive-minded Ted Nolan.

This past year, Miroslav Satan, now 34 years of age, played alongside two of the best forwards in the game in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. In the 65 games he participated in, Satan notched 17 goals and 18 assists for 35 points. While these are fair numbers, these are no where near the dazzling numbers he was able to put up during his time in Buffalo. Whatever it may be, it is obvious that Satan has lost that touch that he once possessed that made him an elite player in this league.

After seeing on Twitter that Satan’s agent confirmed being in negotiations with the Islanders, I contacted my source who was able to confirm that Satan and the Islanders were, in fact, discussing a one-year contract for next year.

Justin’s Opinion: These discussions are nothing more than leverage for Garth Snow at the present time. With the Blake Comeau saga taking a turn for an awkward direction, Snow wanted to make sure he had all his lines covered and that a replacement would be waiting in the wings.

To be fair, there aren’t any players who will be with Bridgeport that are completely ready to make the jump to the NHL. With the absence of Comeau, it would be detrimental to the development of these players for them to make the jump so quickly, and therefore, Snow wants to make sure that a stop-gap replacement is waiting should Comeau and the Islanders turn in completely different directions. If we are to hear about the signing of Satan within the next few weeks or so, it is safe to say that we may be seeing Comeau playing elsewhere next year, and possibly in Europe.

What Will Alex Do?: This seems to be the most common topic of discussion among the hockey blogosphere at the present time. With a large majority of the better free agents signed to contracts already, Alex Tanguay seems to be taking his time in determining where he will be playing next year. It seems as if the entire hockey world is waiting to see what he does, so that the other players can begin to sign elsewhere.

To be fair, quality players still remain out there, and it is very surprising to me that these players have not found a contract last year. It is also very surprising to me, with the amount of ridiculous money that has been spent thus far, that Tanguay has not received a contract that has blown him away. At only 29 years old, Tanguay still has many more years left of quality hockey in the NHL, and it is shocking that no one has taken a gamble on him.

Justin’s Opinion: This situation has truly escalated into much more than I ever expected it too.

Even though I am supposed to dislike the Rangers, Tanguay is the type of player they need. With tremendous playmaking ability and speed, Tanguay would be a great fit on a line with Gaborik, as Gaborik is a pure goal scorer. For now, I will leave this area up to my partner, Glen.

From the Islanders perspective, I still maintain my previous stance that he would be a great fit on the island, and for more than this silly one-year deal that many media outlets are mentioning. One year would mean he plays his heart out, and then he leaves us when he sees the true contenders come calling. I believe this guy has tremendous potential, and the fact he is still available is because teams are questioning if they should go all-in or not. He will sign somewhere within the next 10 days, and I am keeping my fingers crossed for the NYI.

And last, but without a doubt the most important piece of information:

Governor Patterson’s Seal of Approval: Regardless of how you feel about him, and regardless of how you feel about his very, very shaky political standing at the present time, the fact that a governor is taking time out of his schedule to put his full approval behind the Lighthouse speaks volumes. Yes, he is a democrat, and yes, Kate Murray is a republican, but this “seal of approval” seems to supersede that, as Kate Murray will be in attendance tomorrow.

While the event will be taking place tomorrow morning at the Nassau Veteran Memorial Coliseum, and while it will most likely be a very small event in terms of size, this event will be very large in terms of effect. With a political leader backing a party, it could have the necessary snowball effect that is necessary to help push this project along even further.

For all of those who are available tomorrow morning, I would suggest going, as it will be beneficial on the whole. Also, please remember that the most important Lighthouse Meeting to date will still be taking place at Hofstra University on August 4^th. The banner is posted at the top, and I really hope you will all put your best efforts forth to get to today’s meeting or the one on August 4^th!

That about wrap’s it up for the Monday Morning hockey talk. Be sure to check out my partner Glen’s blog regarding the Boston Bruins recent activity! As always, comments and questions are greatly appreciated, and they can be left below in the comments section, or you can shoot me an email at IslesNet@Gmail.Com . Thank you, and I hope you all had a great weekend!

-Justin (IslesNet@Gmail.Com)